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31.
Scientists have argued that invasive species can be managed most cost effectively with greater investments in prevention. Further, under ideas like the precautionary principle it is reasonable to expect that a cautious manager would use more prevention relative to control because it keeps more invaders out. Yet, this is not typically done. In many cases, private and public resources are invested primarily to control existing invaders rather than to prevent new invasions. Managers frequently wait until after invaders have arrived and then scramble to limit the damages. We believe these paradoxical decisions can be understood by recognizing the link between typical human preferences for risk bearing and the technology of risk reduction. We demonstrate quantitatively how managers perceived to be cautious or averse to risk tend to shy away from prevention relative to control. This counterintuitive result arises because control is a safer choice than prevention because its productivity is relatively less risky: it works to remove existing invaders from the system. In contrast, the productivity of prevention is more uncertain because prevention only reduces the chance of invasion, it does not eliminate it, and invasion may not occur even in the absence of prevention. Managers' averse to risk will inherently avoid as much uncertainty as possible, whether the source of uncertainty regards ecological outcomes or economic productivity. Implications for environmental decision making are clear. In invasive species management, if managers act as though they are risk averse, their caution can backfire when it leads to more control rather than prevention. The social consequences of this choice are a greater probability of future invasions and lower social welfare. Our results suggest that social welfare is highest when managers were willing to “take a risk” with prevention. 相似文献
32.
传统的久期理论建立在收益曲线平移等严格假设条件上,因而其在实践中的有效性大大降低了。根据Markowitz(1959)等理论可推导出:资产价格的总风险包括收益的方差和全久期向量两部分;假若商业银行采取现金中性(cash neutrality)的资产交易策略,风险计量模型可转换为线性规划问题,从而可以构建基于利率风险最小化模型的随机免疫策略。也就是说,引入随机免疫的理念来替代经典的免疫理论,通过实证分析得出:无现金交易条件下的随机免疫策略能够降低利率风险。 相似文献
33.
限时开发是快速应用开发的最佳实践之一。文章介绍了限时开发的基本概念和优点以及适用的项目范围,通过一个进销存软件的开发实例说明如何成功地应用限时开发方法。 相似文献
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Using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, we derive both a Keynes-Ramsey rule and a closed form solution for an optimal consumption-investment problem with labor income. The utility function is unbounded and uncertainty stems from a Poisson process. Our results can be derived because of the proofs presented in the accompanying paper by Sennewald (2006). Additional examples are given which highlight the correct use of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and the change-of-variables formula (sometimes referred to as ``Itô's Lemma'') under Poisson uncertainty. 相似文献
37.
Summary. We consider an optimally managed renewable resource with stochastic non-concave growth function. We characterize the conditions under which the optimal policy leads to global extinction, global conservation and the existence of a safe standard of conservation. Our conditions are specified in terms of the economic and ecological primitives of the model: the biological growth function, the welfare function, the distribution of shocks and the discount rate. Our results indicate that, unlike deterministic models, extinction and conservation in stochastic models are not determined by a simple comparison of the growth rate and the discount rate; the welfare function plays an important role.Received: 20 October 2004, Revised: 28 February 2005, JEL Classification Numbers:
D90, O11, O41, Q32.Santanu Roy: Correspondence toResearch on this paper was completed when the second author visited Cornell University in July, 2003. We thank the Center for Analytic Economics and the Department of Economics at Cornell University for making this research visit possible. The current version has gained considerably from the comments made by an anonymous referee. 相似文献
38.
针对物流系统设计,基于网络规划法提出了一种在物流中心已经确定的条件下,进行道路系统的新的设计方法。通过合理但设把道路系统的设计转变为网络规划中求解最短路径的问题.通过统计每个路段的最短路径通过率.得出路段的运量负担情况,从而为道路的功能和等级设计提供依据。在此基础上.以宁波化工区的物流系统为例,建立了宁波化工区道路系统的网络模型,对宁波化工区的道路系统进行了功能设计。结果表明,该方法在区域物流系统设计中有良好的应用前景. 相似文献
39.
A dual representation of a technology, e.g., a cost function, may not contain all of the technological information, but it will contain all of the information about input vectors that would be chosen by a cost-minimizing firm. At least this much is clear for deterministic technologies. The main question addressed in this paper is whether the same can be said about stochastic technologies and their dual representations. Despite some pessimism expressed in the stochastic frontier literature on this question, we argue that there is no extra cost imposed in the stochastic case. Thus, the conclusion of this paper is: Just dual it! 相似文献
40.
Eilon Solan 《Games and Economic Behavior》2000,31(2):245
A team is a group of people having the same motives but possibly different available actions. A team game is a game where two teams face each other. An absorbing game is a repeated game where some of the entries are absorbing, in the sense that once they are chosen the play terminates, and all future payoffs are equal to the payoff at the stage of termination. We prove that every absorbing team game has an equilibrium payoff and that there are -equilibrium profiles with cyclic structure. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73. 相似文献