Assessing time-varying stock market integration in Economic and Monetary Union for normal and crisis periods

In this paper, we examine the stock market integration process amongst 17 Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries from January 2002 to June 2013 over a normal period as well as for the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Eurozone Debt Crisis (EDC) periods. We classify the economies in three groups (A, B and C) based on their GDP to examine whether the economic size influences financial integration. Seven indicators are used for the purpose, namely, beta convergence, sigma convergence, variance ratio, asymmetric DCC, dynamic cointegration, market synchronisation measure and common components approach. The results suggest that large-sized EMU economies (termed as Group A) exhibit strong stock market integration. Moderate integration is observed for middle-sized EMU economies with old membership (termed as Group B). Small-sized economies (termed as Group C) economies seemed to be least integrated within the EMU stock market system. The findings further suggest presence of contagion effects as one moves from normal to crisis periods, which are specifically stronger for more integrated economies of Group A. We recommend institutional, regulatory and other policy reforms for Group B and especially Group C to achieve higher level of integration.     

An Exploratory Study on Nonlinear Causality Among the MILA Markets

According to conventional portfolio theory, an increase in the interconnectedness of international financial markets may reduce the potential for constructing diversified portfolios. This article explores the implications of the creation of the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA)¹ over the dependence structure of its members using correlation and cointegration analysis as well as linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests. The creation of MILA aimed to enhance the integration process that Latin American financial markets “naturally” present while still providing diversification opportunities to investors. The results of our empirical analysis suggest that such objective is being achieved. Evidence of a rise in cross-country linear correlations and their linear causal relationship supports the idea of an increasing financial integration process in the region, while the absence of cointegration and the weakening of the nonlinear causal relationship favors the creation of diversified regional portfolios. These findings provide valuable insights for investment portfolio designers, regulators, and supervisors.     

Do Sovereign Re‐Ratings Destabilize Equity Markets during Financial Crises? New Evidence from Higher Return Moments

This study investigates the effects of S&P's sovereign re‐ratings on the higher moments of equity market returns over recent financial crises. Using a set of intraday stock market index prices and sovereign credit ratings for a sample of 36 countries that experienced sovereign rating changes over the period from 1996 to 2013, we find that the higher moments of stock market returns are significantly more responsive to sovereign re‐ratings during financial crises, but the effects on stock markets are not the same across different financial crises. The effects during crises are, however, magnified for large downgrades and those that are associated with a loss of investment grade status. We find that there are asymmetric effects during financial crises in that downgrades are consistently more significant than upgrades in increasing realized volatility and realized kurtosis. Both upgrades and downgrades affect realized skewness in times of crises in the expected direction.     

Corporate Stock and Bond Return Correlations and Dynamic Adjustments of Capital Structure

This paper analyses the effects of dynamic correlations between stock and bond returns issued by the same firm on the speed of adjustment towards target leverage. The results show that the estimated correlations are time varying, show persistence and differ among firms. Analysis of the potential explanatory variables reveals that the correlations decrease with negative expectations about future aggregate risks, but only for firms with a low default probability. In contrast, correlations are positively associated with specific risk measures, especially idiosyncratic stock risk and financial leverage. The positive relationship between the correlations and the leverage ratio suggests that target leverage can be achieved faster when the stock–bond correlation is high. Our results show that this is the case.     

新冠肺炎疫情、金融市场震荡与金融危机

新型冠状病毒感染肺炎疫情在全球快速蔓延后,美国等国家金融市场出现大幅度震荡,历史罕见。金融市场震荡是疫情影响投资者信心,金融市场本身的风险需要释放,以及经济基本面悲观预期等因素共同作用的结果。目前来看,疫情对实体经济造成冲击,疫情应对情况也在很大程度上决定了金融市场震荡是否演化为全球金融危机,国外金融市场震荡对国内金融市场的传导需要审慎理性处理。     

境外上市与企业投资效率

截至2021年11月,我国单独境外上市企业占到境外上市企业总数的88.32%,但单独境外上市的研究明显与该数据不匹配,研究数量缺乏。为扩充该方面研究,本文以2012~2020年单独在美国和中国香港上市的中资企业为研究对象,对境外上市与投资效率关系进行检验。实证结果发现,单独境外上市与境内上市企业相比投资效率更低,区分企业上市地点后发现,规模大、信息透明度低、存在代理成本的赴港上市企业比境内上市企业投资效率低,规模小、代理成本高、信息透明度低的赴美上市企业比境内上市企业投资效率低。通过机制分析发现,信息透明度、境外上市和非效率投资三者存在"遮掩效应",境外上市企业未能受到有效的信息约束。     

股票基金红利再投资比例的实证研究

开放式基金"红利再投资比例"指的是基金分红时,投资者以红利再投资方式进行的收益分配占总收益分配的比例。红利再投资比例的研究可以为基金制定正确的分红策略提供依据。文章通过对股票型开放式基金红利再投资比例的研究,发现基金份额、基金存续时间与基金红利再投资比例正相关。这说明基金持有人对基金管理人越有信心,基金持有人投资基金的时间越长,则选择红利再投资的可能性就越大。     

经理人股票期权的会计计价

股票期权会计计价是股票期权制度的核心。股票期权费用化已为学界所接受,争论的焦点集中在方法的选择上。当前,应尽快明确计价方法,因为股票期权会计计价不仅是用来反映和核算股票期权经济行为的工具,更是调节各方利益的手段。因此,笔者建议采用"股利贴现模型"和"库藏股法"来分析不同计价方法对股权稀释的影响。     

股票市场驱动并购研究述评

并购动机理论是并购研究的中心问题之一.从行为金融的角度出发,学者们提出了股票市场驱动并购(SMDA)的并购动机理论模型,这个模型回答了诸如"谁收购谁"、"现金收购还是换股收购"、 "并购浪潮怎么产生"等等问题.本文比较全面地总结了SMDA的理论模型和实证研究两个方面的成果,并做了简要的评述.     

流动性过剩与股票价格重估

在固定汇率与资本管制框架下,剩余储蓄的持续增加必然导致流动性过剩,对股票市场而言,只有当实体经济持续的剩余储蓄增加引起流动性过剩时,才会推动股票市场估值中枢的剧烈抬升.对近期经济指标的分析表明,股票市场重估将会持续下去,而货币政策紧缩引起的投资下降会进一步扩大剩余储蓄,加快重估的进程.