Dependencies between price duration,volatility, volume and return on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The successive changes of asset prices are the most visible manifestation of financial markets dynamics. There exist different views about factors generating these changes, but many researchers and practitioners agree that the most important among them is the impact of information flow. According to the market microstructure theories, it depends mainly on the behavior of informed and uniformed traders. In the paper, we investigate dependencies between the possible proxies of information process： price duration and corresponding to it volume change and return. Our main objective is to answer the question about the most important factor in the process of discovering information by uniformed traders. We apply a set of models for volatility, volume and duration data. Our analysis is performed for selected equities listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and uses tick-by-tick data. The obtained results show that the stock liquidity on this leading stock market in Central and Eastern Europe is the most important factor influencing the process of discovering information by uninformed traders.     

中美股市价格收益波动关联性的研究

随着经济和资本市场的全球化，各国股市之间的相互影响变得越来越大。为了研究中美股市自金融危机爆发后价格收益波动的关联性，可以选取上证综指和标准普尔500作为研究样本，绘出中美股市的走势图，研究两者的联动性，运用协整检验对上证综指和标准普尔500进行实证检验和分析。结果表明，中美股市价格收益波动存在一定程度的关联性。     

How does economic policy uncertainty drive gold–stock correlations? Evidence from the UK

In this article, we investigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on correlations between the UK stock market and gold market. We find that less certain economic policies result in lower correlations, while more certain economic policies result in higher correlations. The correlations are symmetric and show no structural breaks caused by the recent financial crisis. The recent financial crisis has not changed EPU effects on the correlations. The effects of one positive one-standard-deviation shock of the logarithmic change rate of the EPU on the correlations last approximately 19 months.     

Consistent Analyst Expectation Error and Earnings Management: Evidence from China

Using data from the Chinese A-share market in 2004–12, we show how cognitive bias of individual analysts led to counterproductive effect in less-developed financial markets. We form an ex ante measure of analysts’ expectation error, a measure suitable for markets with a short history. We find that star analysts tend to be more optimistic than ordinary analysts, and their biased opinions influence other analysts because of analyst herding behavior. Two-stage least square regression results suggest that consistent expectation errors among analysts can lead to earnings management. These insights are valuable to investors and regulators.     

白石牙水库大坝料场选择与开采规划

文章阐述了白石牙水库大坝料场的分析、选择和开采等情况。能不能用、够不够用、好用不好用、怎么用是料场选择与开采主要考虑的问题。通过介绍白石牙水库大坝料场选择的案例,为其他水利工程项目实施提供借鉴。     

成本预测与施工控制——关于伊敏发电厂二期工程成本管理的思考

工程项目成本计划一般在项目经理负责下,由技术、预算、计划与财务人员通过项目的技术组织措施和施工预算以确定目标成本,并把指标分解到各单位工程施工班组和施工阶段进行控制管理,从而达到降低施工成本,提高项目施工效率的目的。     

对建立全国统一模式农户信庄风险评估体系的思考

建立全国统一模式的农户信用风险评估体系是今后我国征信工作的发展趋势。分析当前农村信用体系建设及农户信用风险评估工作中的一些较为突出的问题，并通过建立组合预测模型尝试克服现有信用风险评估模式的缺点，为构建符合国内实际情况的统一信用风险评估模式提供思路。     

An analysis of the factors affecting the turnover intention of non-managerial clerical staff: a Singapore study

This study examines the factors affecting turnover intention and attempts to construct a turnover prediction model. Sixteen demographic, job satisfaction and job attitude factors are considered in the study. From the three-hundred questionnaires administered, a usable response rate of 36 per cent (i.e., 108 usable questionnaires) was obtained.

Correlation analyses, t-tests and multiple regression were used to analyse the data. The results show that demographic and job attitude factors are not significantly associated with turnover intention. In contrast, job satisfaction factors affect turnover intention significantly. In particular, satisfaction with career future, company identity, kind of work and financial rewards were found to be statistically significant. These four variables are thus included in the final turnover prediction model.     

利用BP神经网络预测隧道周边位移

介绍了利用神经网络技术的基本原理;并以隧道周边位移为例,说明应用MATLAB实现BP神经网络的预测。     

Forecasting business failure: The use of nearest-neighbour support vectors and correcting imbalanced samples - Evidence from the Chinese hotel industry

Previous studies on firm failure prediction (FFP) have chiefly addressed predictions based on balanced datasets without considering that the real-world target population consists of imbalanced data. The current study investigates tourism FFP based on the imbalanced data of Chinese listed companies in the hotel industry. The imbalanced dataset was collected and represented in terms of significant financial ratios, and a new up-sampling approach and forecasting method were proposed to correct imbalanced samples. To balance the imbalanced dataset, the up-sampling method generates new minority samples according to random percentage distances from each minority sample to its nearest neighbour (NN). The NNs of unlabelled samples are retrieved from the balanced dataset to produce a knowledge base of nearest-neighbour support vectors, from which base support vector machines (SVMs) are generated and assembled. Empirical results indicate that the proposed sampling approach helped models produce more accurate performance on minority samples, with accuracy rates in excess of 90 per cent. This method of using nearest-neighbour support vectors and correcting imbalanced samples is useful in controlling risk in tourism management.