Enhancing capacity planning through forecasting: An integrated tool for maintenance of complex product systems

Despite the extensive amount of data generated and stored during the maintenance capacity planning process, Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) organizations have yet to explore their full potential in forecasting the required capacity to face future and unprecedented maintenance interventions. This paper explores the integration of time series forecasting capabilities in a tool for maintenance capacity planning of complex product systems (CoPS), intended to value data that is routinely generated and stored, but often disregarded by MROs. State space formulations with multiplicative errors for the simple exponential smoothing (SES), Holt’s linear method (HLM), additive Holt-Winters (AHW), and multiplicative Holt-Winters (MHW) are assessed using real data, comprised of 171 maintenance projects collected from a major Portuguese aircraft MRO. A state space formulation of the MHW, selected using the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc), is integrated in a Decision Support System (DSS) for capacity planning with probabilistic inference capabilities and used to forecast the workload probability distribution of a future and unprecedent maintenance intervention. The developed tool is validated by comparing forecasted values with workloads of a particular maintenance intervention and with a model simulating current forecasting practices employed by MROs.     

谈深基坑锚杆支护技术

高层建筑、地下空间的建设都涉及深开挖工程,深基坑锚杆支护技术是保证高层建筑、地下空间建设结构安全的技术之一。文章分析了高层建筑基础的特点、深基坑锚杆支护技术的施工要点和工艺流程。     

我国农业支持与农民收入和消费的再思考——基于整体性的多变量协整系统

把农民收入和消费及财政支农和农村金融置于一个框架下进行了考察。基于1978—2008年数据拟合的多变量协整模型较好地反映了我国农村经济的特点,结果表明,农业财政和金融在长期可显著提高农民收入,金融信贷在短期可有效扩大农民消费,并且农村金融体系较好地保证了内源融资的效率;消费方程反映出我国农民消费具有短视性特点,对同期收入过度敏感。     

异地养老市场分析及对策建议

随着经济的发展以及人口老龄化的日益严峻,传统的家庭养老模式面临着各种挑战。老年人经济状况的改善,以及异地养老的一系列便利性,满足了一部分老年人的特殊需求,异地养老作为一种时尚的养老方式悄然出现。受宏观社会保障制度不够健全、现有养老服务质量水平不高、配套设施不完善等影响,异地养老还有许多问题有待解决。提出了实现异地养老市场化、社会化,异地养老市场定位要准、要通过各种方式提高服务质量、政策上给予保障等建议。     

基于国内支持框架下的农业风险管理体系研究

农业风险管理体系与国内支持政策的基本目标存在共性,两者具有较强的关联性和互补性,将农业风险管理体系融入到国内支持框架中是可行的,而且在诸多方面具有独特优势。     

领导成员交换与员工创造力：情感机制的中介作用

情感是员工创造力的重要前因,而已有文献结论存在不一致,且未深入地探讨影响员工情绪的组织情境因素。文章依据情感事件理论,分析和检验了领导成员交换、积极/消极情感与创造力的关系,以及组织创造力支持感的调节作用。通过分析442对主管〖CD*2〗下属配对样本,结果表明：积极情感和消极情感在领导成员交换与创造力关系之间起部分中介作用;组织创造力支持感正向调节积极情感与创造力的关系,而对消极情感与创造力关系的负向调节作用不显著;最后,高的组织创造力支持感还调节积极/消极情感在领导成员交换与员工创造力关系间的中介作用。     

Linking customisation of ERP systems to support effort: an empirical study

The amount of customisation to an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system has always been a major concern in the context of the implementation. This article focuses on the phase of maintenance and presents an empirical study about the relationship between the amount of customising and the resulting support effort. We establish a structural equation modelling model that explains support effort using customisation effort, organisational characteristics and scope of implementation. The findings using data from an ERP provider show that there is a statistically significant effect: with an increasing amount of customisation, the quantity of telephone calls to support increases, as well as the duration of each call.     

消减城乡公共产品供给差异的策略——基于政治支持差异假设的探视

本文认为导致城乡公共产品供给差异的根本原因是地方政府官员根据不同主体能够给予的政治支持做出的理性选择。文章强调了政治支持差异对地方官员行为的影响,并把上级政府、城市居民和农村居民的政治支持纳入一个统一的分析框架,分析了地方官员从不同主体获得的政治支持权重大小顺序,给出了其最优策略的均衡条件。如果要实现基本公共产品均等化目标,则需优化政治支持结构。     

工作与家庭的要求和资源、工作-家庭冲突及其后果——台湾与大陆的比较

本研究目的在探讨工作与家庭中的要求和资源、工作-家庭冲突（WFC）,及其在工作/非工作相关后果变项上的关系,并以中国台湾和大陆员工为对象进行比较。 结果发现：不管是中国台湾还是大陆员工,工作与家庭的要求皆可有效预测WFC。再者,家务帮忙对WFC的预测效果不佳,但主管的家庭支持却为降低台湾员工WFC之有效因子。最后,WFC可有效预测台湾员工之家庭满意,主管家庭支持则可有效预测两地员工的工作满意。两地比较方面,工作限制与主管支持封台湾员工的WFC都较大陆员工有更强的影响,亦即“地区”（台湾或大陆）对工作要求及资源与WFC之间的关系都存在干扰作用。     

The “swing of the pendulum” from public to market support for science and technology: Is the U.S. leading the way?

The structure and financing of science and technology activities are undergoing a slow, but profound, change. This change can be briefly characterized as a shift from relying and supporting public science to a stronger emphasis on “market-based” incentives for science and technology. In this paper we analyze this shift in a historical perspective, discussing both the theoretical explanations and the empirical trends of the ongoing change. While we do not claim to provide a comprehensive and exhaustive identification of the causes of this shift, we argue that it is largely driven by the perception of a shift of the U.S. policy towards market-based, rather than publicly supported, incentives for science and technology. This, in turn—given the strong economic performance of the United States over the 1990s—has influenced policies in most OECD countries, especially in Europe.We conclude by analyzing the evolution of research in U.S. higher education and find two major trends: an increasing diversity in the number of institutions of different types other than universities and a steady and continuous public funding of the leading U.S. universities. This has allowed the construction of an infrastructure now used largely by the private sector, but it also noted that the United States has not compromised public support for core areas or in those fields in which there is a clear perception that market incentives are not sufficient for meeting the strategic targets of the U.S. policy. The implication is that there is a considerable policy diversity in the U.S. practice and that all aspects of this diversity should be considered when using the United States as a reference.