基于D-D模型的退保风险传染效应研究

The prevention and control of financial risk has been placed at a more prominent position at present. Preventing the risk of cross infection and systemic risk is one of the most important tasks of the current insurance industry. The crisis signal of an insurance company may shake the confidence of consumers to a large extent, leading to a “flock effect” that causes the risk spillovers and make the insured surrender or no longer renew, which could eventually lead to systemic risk. In this paper, based on a micro perspective and D-D model, we take the insurance companies different levels of loss claims as a key variable to establish a closed insurance market model, to study the relationship between the surrender behavior and the risk contagion, and carries on the numerical simulation and the sensitivity analysis to the risk infectivity caused by the insured under different crises. The study found that there is a critical jump point when the insured faces a different degree of crisis in the insurance company, and the behavior of the insured has a certain degree of influence on the systemic risk transmission. The regulatory authorities and insurance companies need to pay attention to the contagion effects of systemic risk caused by expectations and behaviors of policyholders.     

Default of Systemically Important Financial Intermediaries: Short‐term Stability versus Incentive Compatibility?

Financial integration and globalization have acted as a major stimulus in the development of large, internationally operating banks, which not only provide cross‐border services but also have a local presence. While these banks are themselves drivers of economic integration, they can pose serious threats to financial stability. Their size, interconnectedness and importance as providers of specific services mean that financial institutions can be too‐systemic‐to‐fail (TSTF). Since the entry and exit of market participants is a crucial feature of well‐functioning markets, the absence of any credible possibility of failure leads to serious distortions. This analysis gives an overview of the TSTF problem and discusses the challenges to be faced in establishing credible resolution regimes.     

Aligning Misaligned Systemic Innovations: Probing Inter‐Firm Effects Development in Project Networks

Implementing systemic innovations in a project network can significantly improve its performance; however, implementing systemic innovations is difficult if project network structures misalign to the innovation. Little research has examined how project network structures can align to systemic innovations. To address this research gap, we studied an advanced building information modeling tool implemented in a Finnish design and development project network. We found that misaligned innovations are aligned through a process of task sequence alignment, knowledge base alignment, and work allocation alignment. Our findings are important; they suggest that implementing systemic innovations in project networks is a multistage inter‐firm process.     

建立宏观审慎政策框架的若干思考

建立宏观审慎政策框架对于我国加强国际金融合作、防范国内金融风险具有重要意义。本文在吸收国内外宏观审慎政策研究的基础上,并结合我国经济金融发展实际,分析了我国在建立宏观审慎框架时可能面对的风险识别、工具运用和治理安排三个方面的挑战,提出了明确宏观审慎政策边界、加强系统性金融风险监测和识别、改进宏观审慎工具运用和评估、完善宏观审慎政策治理安排的政策建议。     

TBT模式中承包商风险防范体系的研究

作为BOT模式和TOT模式的组合补偿模式的TBT融资模式还处在起步阶段，在各方面还有不完善之处。对TOT模式中风险进行分析并建立相应的风险防范体系，不仅具有理论意义，更具有实践意义。文章从项目主要参与者之一的工程承包商角度，探讨TBT模式中承包商面临的风险种类和应对措施，建立此模式下可供承包商参考的风险防范体系。     

客户关系管理的系统特征分析

客户关系管理能帮助企业更好地吸引潜在的客户和留住最有价值的客户,从而为企业带来丰厚的利润。本文对客户关系管理系统的特征进行了分析,指出客户关系管理系统具有组成多元性、整体性、开放性和动态性等特点,在此基础上力图认识该系统的一般性规律,从而为企业提高客户关系管理的效率提供理论依据。     

经济周期、经济转型与企业系统性信用风险——基于ECTM模型的实证研究

我国企业的系统性信用风险根源于经济周期和经济转型两方面,但已有研究对经济转型因素缺乏足够重视。文章构建了ECTM模型,筛选出对我国企业系统性信用风险有显著影响的两个经济周期因子和三个经济转型因子,并刻画其作用方向和程度。结论显示,未来我国企业所有制多元化程度的提高和金融市场化改革有助于降低企业的系统性信用风险,但外贸依存度的下降则可能给相关企业带来冲击。我国银行业应加强对企业系统性信用风险的监测和防范。     

论我国残疾人社会保障的体系性缺失及其建构

虽然残疾人社会保障取得较大进展,但仍然存在制度性缺陷。从调查数据看,在特惠保障、特供保障、均衡保障、服务保障等方面存在着体系性缺失,而其原因则主要是思想理念落后、法律保护不足、市场调控乏力、制度体系欠缺等几个方面。为了加强残疾人社会保障的体系性架构,必须坚持特惠保障与适度保障相协调、坚持需求导向与分类施保相匹配、坚持补偿性保障与发展性保障相统一以及坚持政府主导与社会参与相结合的路径。     

系统性金融风险的测度方法比较

系统性风险的一般测量方法有矩阵模型、网络模型、违约率强度模型。次贷危机中系统性风险的测量最为重要的是由信用风险导致的系统风险和从综合化经营机构传导的系统风险。对系统性风险的测量不同的方法差别很大,每种方法都有各自的缺陷。我国银行体系的系统性风险主要来源于信贷扩张风险,因而矩阵法与网络法是适合我国现实的,矩阵法已经得以初步应用,但该方法的使用仍需进一步改进。     

“家电下乡”政策的补贴问题分析——从政策执行系统模型的角度

2008年年底,国家在新形势下推出了一项惠农惠民政策——"家电下乡"政策。经调查,许多农民买主在提出申请后的三个月乃至半年都未领到补贴,"补贴到账时间过长"、"手续繁琐、办理效率低"等成为政策执行的瓶颈。本文从行政管理理论出发,利用政策执行系统模型系统分析该政策补贴申领环节各个因素及其相互作用关系,找出补贴问题的原因及解决思路。