关于对证券公司实施宏观审慎监管的思考

此次金融危机之后,宏观审慎监管的重要性得到了国际监管者的普遍认同,并已经在最新的监管规定提案中得到体现。宏观审慎监管目的在于通过一些制度设计控制系统性风险的危害,保持市场稳定发展。根据我国券商目前发展特点和潜在风险,建议:一是借鉴国际先进统计分析方法,加强对系统性风险的度量和监控;二是引入逆周期风险调节机制,增加逆周期资本准备;三是以分类监管制度为基础,提高风险监管制度的灵活性,强化系统内重点证券公司的风险监管。     

金融衍生品与企业风险承担——基于我国制造业上市公司的经验证据

以我国沪深A股上市的制造业企业2007-2012年数据为基础,剖析了金融衍生品对企业个体风险和系统风险的影响。研究表明,无论是整体的衍生品还是不同合约类型的衍生品,对个体风险和系统风险均产生了抑制效应。进一步分析显示,衍生品对个体风险的抑制效应在显著性水平上存在着结构性差异,其中外汇衍生品的影响在统计上显著,而商品衍生品和利率衍生品则不显著。此外,还发现整体衍生品和单一衍生品对系统风险的抑制效应均不显著。     

Aggregation in Area-Yield Crop Insurance: The Linear Additive Model

Previous analyses of area yield crop insurance have used a linear additive model (LAM) to express the relationship between individual and area yield. However, the theoretical foundations of the LAM are unknown. This shortcoming is addressed by establishing two conditions linking microvariables and LAM parameters. The conditions relate to the interaction of risks in individual technologies and the extent of aggregation. If systemic and individual risks are additive in individual yields, and if the law of large numbers hold, then the LAM obtains. This article also shows how departures from these conditions affect the results derived from a LAM analysis.     

Systemic risk in global volatility spillover networks: Evidence from option-implied volatility indices

With option-implied volatility indices, we identify networks of global volatility spillovers and examine time-varying systemic risk across global financial markets. The U.S. stock market is the center of the network and plays a dominant role in the spread of volatility spillover to other markets. The global systemic risks have intensified since the Federal Reserve exited from quantitative easing, hiked interest rate, and shrank its balance sheet. We further show that the U.S. monetary tightening is an important catalyst for the intensifying global systemic risk. Our findings highlight the pernicious effects of monetary tightening after an era of cheap money.     

Measuring financial systemic stress for Turkey: A search for the best composite indicator

In this study, we aim to construct a single financial stress indicator (FSI) for Turkey adopting weekly data from between April 2005 and December 2016. To do so, we compose 15 different FSIs using 14 variables that will represent five different markets, i.e. the money market, the bond market, the foreign exchange market, the equity market and the banking sector. We aggregate these five different markets using a variety of techniques, including principal component analysis (PCA), basic portfolio theory, variance equal weights and the Bayesian dynamic factor model. We compare 15 different FSIs on the basis of their relation to, and the forecasting power of, different variables such as the growth rate of industrial production, the OECD business condition index and the OECD composite leading indicator for Turkey. Our results suggest that there is no simple best indicator for Turkey to measure financial systemic stress. Some indicators offer good forecasting power for economic growth while others have a stronger correlation with systemic risk. Therefore, we offer a final FSI for Turkey conducting a model averaging method via a rolling correlation based weighting scheme to benefit from the information content of all the FSIs and observe that the final FSI successfully indicates the tension periods.     

跨境资本流动对货币政策有效性的影响研究——基于系统性风险视角的分析

日益频繁的跨境资本流动势必引发系统性风险，进而对货币政策有效性造成冲击，严重威胁我国的经济金融稳定。本文构建四部门DSGE模型并利用脉冲响应函数及模拟技术检验跨境资本流动对我国货币政策有效性的影响。研究发现，跨境资本流动加速了我国系统性风险累积过程，价格型与数量型货币政策的有效性均受到削弱。因此，随着我国经济国际化进程的不断加深，仅仅依靠传统货币政策已经无法有效应对系统性风险，需要采取更多样的措施。     

系统重要性金融机构:国际监管实践与中国金融改革

运用文献法和比较分析法,研究梳理金融稳定委员会、巴塞尔银行监管委员会等机构发布的系统重要性金融机构监管的相关文件,分析与评估了当前全球系统重要性金融机构的评估方法和监管政策。同时,参考美国、英国、澳大利亚以及荷兰在2008年次贷危机后的金融监管改革措施以及系统重要性金融机构监管制度的设计,结合中国目前系统重要性金融机构监管的进展以及金融监管的形势,指出中国应改变现有的"一行三会"监管模式,采取"央行+微观审慎监管局+金融行为监管局"监管模式。     

国外银行系统性风险研究综述

2008年金融危机以来,银行系统性风险得到越来越多的重视和关注,出现了大量的相关研究文献。本文在梳理近期国外相关文献基础上,对系统性风险定义、度量方法、传染机制、风险预警、风险监管等方面的新研究进展进行了较为系统的文献回顾与评述,对未来该领域的研究方向进行展望,并就加强中国银行系统性风险研究提出了建议。     

Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion

This paper assesses the potential for contagion in the Swiss interbank market using new data on bilateral bank exposures as well as on credit lines. A simulation approach is applied to assess the banking system's inherent instability. Moreover, the spill-over effects of a simulated default situation in the interbank market on the liquidity and solvency of banks are measured. The main findings are, first, that there is a substantial potential for contagion. Second, the exposure as well as the credit line contagion channel are relevant for Switzerland. Third, a lender of last resort intervention could reduce spill-over effects remarkably. Finally, the structure of the interbank market has considerable impact on its resilience against spill-over effects: Centralized markets are more prone to contagion than homogenous ones. JEL classification: C81, G21. The opinions expressed herein are my own and not those of the Swiss National Bank.