资本约束、激励相容与银行业监管

金融风险可以划分为商业性金融风险和制度性金融风险.制度性金融风险是我国银行业面临的最主要风险,因此银行监管激励相容度是更适合我国国情的概念.在银行发展史上,呈现出两种迥异的银行成长模式:一种是资金约束型的数量成长模式;一种是资本约束型的质量成长模式,资本约束型的质量成长模式是商业银行的必然选择.资本约束机制与激励相容机制共同发挥作用是银行监管激励与约束机制有效运作的必要条件.激励相容和资本约束要以监管绩效为基础协调发挥作用、不可分割.资本约束与激励相容理念不仅体现在理论研究中,而且体现在国际银行业监管实践中.     

Lender of Last Resort: What Have We Learned Since Bagehot?

The maintenance of financial stability is facilitated by well-designed safety-net arrangements aimed at limiting the risk of disruption in the financial system (crisis prevention) and the consequences of disruption if it arises (crisis management). An important element of crisis management is the lender of last resort (LOLR) function. This article reviews the main ideas on LOLR reflected in the academic literature, going back to Henry Thornton almost 200 years ago.     

中国系统性金融风险度量与货币政策影响机制分析

本文从宏观总体层面构建中国系统性金融风险指数,以SV-TVP-VAR模型分析国内外货币政策对系统性金融风险的影响。结果表明,2001-2018年中国系统性金融风险基本维持在较为稳定的状态并呈现下降趋势;国内货币政策对系统性金融风险产生重要影响,数量型货币供给量的冲击效应更加直接;国外货币政策在金融危机期间对系统性金融风险的冲击较强但冲击在不断减弱。     

中国货币政策对金融稳定 和主权债务风险的影响 *

本文研究在全球金融危机背景下,货币政策对中国主权债务风险和系统性金融风险的影响。实证研究发现,中国的系统性金融风险在样本期间内有两次大幅度的跃升。系统性金融风险的上升跟全球金融危机的传染机制有关,但本国货币政策的影响也不容忽视。这两个原因对中国的主权债务风险也有影响。扩张性货币政策冲击显著加大了中国系统性金融风险但降低了主权债务风险,而对实体经济影响有限。本文的发现支持中国人民银行在全球金融风险较高的情况下,采取更加审慎的货币政策。     

OTC Clearing Arrangements for Bank Systemic Risk Regulation: A Simulation Approach

Based on a simulation approach, this paper compares different over‐the‐counter (OTC) clearing models regarding their netting efficiency and loss‐concentration implications. The results indicate that the mandatory clearing of all standardized OTC derivatives by a Central Counterparty (CCP) propagated by regulators would significantly decrease systemic risk as compared to existing clearing arrangements only if the multilateral netting benefits of the CCP and loss mutualization are fully attained. Therefore, regulators have to ensure that there is a critical mass of asset classes under mandatory clearing, that broad market participation in the CCP is enabled, and that there is an appropriate client asset protection regime.     

Credit Risk in Interbank Networks

ABSTRACT

One of the most striking characteristics of modern financial systems is their complex interdependence, comprising a network of bilateral exposures in the interbank market, in which institutions with surplus liquidity can lend to those with a liquidity shortage. Empirical studies reveal that some interbank networks have features of scale-free networks. We explore the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose distribution of links approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks’ balance sheets from information on network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which the concentration of debt and credit comes from the distribution of links. The results suggest that networks that are more connected and have a high concentration of credit are more resilient to contagion than other types of networks analyzed.     

The Creditor Channel of Liquidity Crises

This paper presents a model to study the transmission of liquidity shocks across financial institutions through the creditor channel. In the model, a borrower institution obtains funds from a large institutional lender and small investors. When the large lender's asset market is hit by a liquidity shock, it might decide to withdraw funding extended to the borrower. The potential withdrawal by the large lender causes small investors to panic and to close positions even if the large lender does not. Facing funding problems, the borrower has to cut its activities, contributing to further shocks to the supply of market liquidity. The original shock is exacerbated, which reinforces withdrawals by all creditors. The model helps explain how the spreading of liquidity shocks from the broker–dealer sector to the hedge fund sector and the feedback contribute to a systemic crisis.     

高职非英语专业大学生初级写作中的体裁介入研究:系统功能语言学视角

通过对非英语专业双语班初级写作者的阐释文语料,从系统功能语言学的视角进行分析,发现参与者接触较多的故事性体裁、报告体裁和口头辩论体裁对阐释文书面体裁有严重的介入现象,究其原因在于教师教学不明晰,学习者对于写作中体裁的社会目的不明确,各种体裁能力没有均衡发展。研究对于教学的启示在于平衡合理地安排教学内容、教师自身的专业素质提高以及学生主动学习意识的提高。     

关联度与系统性风险研究--一个文献综述

2008年金融危机爆发后,对系统性风险的认识从“大而不倒”转向到“关联度太广而不能倒”。基于关联度视角研究系统性风险成为金融危机爆发后研究系统性风险的主流方向。本文详细梳理了金融危机前后有关“关联度与系统性风险”之间相关性的文献,总结关联度视角下测度系统性风险的挑战,并为未来的研究指出方向。     

Chinese Economy under the New "Dual Circulation" Strategy: Challenges and Opportunities—A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2020–2021)

Entering year 2020, the Chinese economy was struck by the COVID-19 outbreak. The unprecedented pandemic, entangled with the already elevated complexities in the nation’s internal environment and external surroundings, aggravated its economic outlook. Internal factors including severe education mismatch in China’s labor force, its vanishing demographic dividend, the declined purchasing power of its middle-income groups, risen leverage ratio of households and enterprises, and soared local government debt reinforced to weaken China’s domestic demand. External factors, especially uncertainty in the China-US relation in the face of the re-shaping global value chain, dragged world economic recovery and thus China’s exports and imports. This summary report highlights some major challenges and opportunities faced by the nation under its new development strategy that stresses internal circulation of domestic economy aided by its interaction with the globe. Our analyses based on IAR-CMM model provide a unified framework for addressing China’s short-, medium-, and long-term issues in an internally coherent manner. Looking into year 2021, our benchmark projection reports an 8.4% annual real GDP growth rate. Alternative scenario analyses and policy simulations are conducted to assess the impacts of potential downside risks and the corresponding policy options for ensuring implicit targets. Through the lens of these analyses, we conclude that a refocus on effective management of internal demand, while deepening structural reforms on supply side and advancing orderly opening up, can help smooth the internal and external circulations of the Chinese economy to achieve high-quality development.