中国金融深化对二氧化碳排放影响的分析

基于中国1960—2010年的时序数据,结合环境学理论与经济增长理论建立定量分析的二氧化碳排放的估计方程,采用ARDL法估计的结果表明,金融深化与二氧化碳排放量呈负相关关系,中国金融深化并没有以牺牲环境为代价,反而降低了我国的二氧化碳排放量。从长期来看,我国的碳排放主要由收入、能源消耗和贸易开放度决定。     

银行系统性风险与宏观审慎管理：国际研究回顾与述评

摘要：本文对银行系统性风险与宏观审慎管理的国际研究现状和代表性文献进行了回顾与梳理,包括银行系统性风险与金融危机、银行系统性风险的根源与成因、银行系统性风险的识别与早期预警,以及系统性风险的防范与宏观审慎管理制度的建立等,并对其进行了总结与述评,旨在通过对银行系统性风险及其监管国际研究重要观点的梳理与总结,为目前正在深入开展的宏观审慎管理实践提供一些有益的启示j同时,也希望南此引申出一些有待进一步深入研究和探讨的课题。     

银行业系统性金融风险如何影响实体经济增长

银行业系统性金融风险如何影响实体经济增长?本文通过实证分析发现,在金融发展促进实体经济增长的过程中,银行业系统性金融风险起负向调节作用。而这种负向作用是通过银行流动性的增加实现的,由于系统性金融风险的增大,银行主动增加流动性以应对不时之需,阻塞了传统信贷促进实体经济增长的渠道。运用门槛模型分析发现,这种负面影响只存在银行流动性较大时。     

实体经济杠杆率、影子银行规模与系统性金融风险——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

防范系统性金融风险、维持金融体系的稳定是中国经济工作的重中之重.通过时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)分析实体经济杠杆率、影子银行规模对系统性金融风险的时变影响.研究发现,实体经济杠杆率与影子银行规模之间存在相互促进的关系,并且两者对系统性金融风险的冲击响应具有时变性和实滞效应.鉴于此,应加强实体经济部门去杠杆、影子银行监管,注重各金融风险防范政策之间的联动反应,以维护金融体系的稳定.     

Community Inclusion under Systemic Inequality: How For-Profit Businesses Pursue Social Purpose

In countries where systemic inequality is pervasive, purposeful businesses that assume wider societal responsibilities try to counteract its effects by including marginalized social groups in their value creation processes. While current research documents a variety of business approaches for community inclusion, the nature, drivers and effectiveness of these inclusionary practices are not fully understood. We develop and empirically validate a framework of community inclusion that explicates the mechanisms through which purposeful businesses generate civic wealth – or economic and social benefits – to disadvantaged community groups. We differentiate between commercial practices that recast existent firm-centric processes towards creating value for marginalized groups and collaborative practices that aim to devise novel, participatory processes for engaging marginalized groups. Analysis of primary data from a sample of 430 small businesses in seven African countries confirms that the effect of social purpose on civic wealth is partially mediated by the two inclusionary practices. Businesses are more likely to extend the scope of their inclusion through collaborative practices when they receive favourable external validation and when institutional voids are low. We contribute to the literature by documenting the role of social purpose in motivating the pursuit of community-level goals and by unpacking the specific inclusionary practices used to achieve them.     

Linking wealth and labour income with stock returns and government bond yields

In this paper, I assess the predictive ability of the ratio of asset wealth to labour income for both stock returns and government bond yields. Using data for 16 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, I show that when the wealth-to-income ratio falls, investors demand a higher stock risk premium. A similar link can be found for government bond yields when agents behave in a non-Ricardian manner or see government bonds as complements for stocks. In contrast, when investors display a Ricardian behaviour or perceive stocks and government bonds as good substitutes, a fall in the wealth-to-income ratio is associated with a fall in future bond premium.     

Real Estate Markets and Macroprudential Policy in Europe

Boom‐bust cycles in real estate markets have been major factors in systemic financial crises and therefore need to be at the forefront of macroprudential policy. The geographically differentiated nature of real estate market fluctuations implies that these policies need to be granular across regions and countries. Before the financial crisis that started in 2007 property markets were overvalued in a range of European countries, but much like in other constituencies active policies addressing this were an exception. An increasing number of studies suggest that borrower‐based regulatory policies, such as reductions in loan‐to‐value or debt‐to‐income limits, can be effective in leaning against real estate booms. But many of the new macroprudential policy authorities in Europe do not have clear powers to determine them. Moreover, the cross‐border spillovers they may give rise to suggest the establishment of a well‐defined macroprudential coordination mechanism for the single European market.     

城市住宅结构特征的居民偏好分析

选取2011年6月—12月广州市10个新建商品住宅项目的销售数据作为研究样本,结合Hedonic模型理论对城市住宅结构特征的居民偏好程度进行实证分析。研究结论:1城市购房主体人群首先倾向于选择中大户型住宅,进而考虑中高层和南向等结构位置的住宅,最后才会关注卫生间数量、阳台数量和实用率等结构特征;2中心区位与郊区区位的住宅购买者偏好差异不大,而城市近郊住宅购买者偏好集中在建筑面积和房间数量两个方面,证明其投资倾向略重。     

Systemic Risk in the Dutch Financial Sector

This paper investigates systemic risk in the Dutch financial sector by focusing on extreme return co-movements of the major financial institutions. In particular, we use a Monte Carlo simulation experiment conditioned on both a fat and a thin tailed underlying return distribution to test the potential for systemic risk. We find evidence of a strong potential for systemic risk, which has emerged after the major mergers in the end of the 1980s and early 1990s.This work was completed while the author was affiliated to De Nederlandsche Bank. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of De Nederlandsche Bank. I am grateful to Robert-Paul Berben for many useful discussions on methodology, Jan Kakes for support, Martin Admiraal and Carry Mout for data assistance, Aerdt Houben, Job Swank, Casper de Vries, Garry Schinasi, the participants of the 24th meeting of the Research Group on Financial Stability at De Nederlandsche Bank, and two anonymous referees for useful comments on an earlier version of this paper.