实体经济杠杆率、影子银行规模与系统性金融风险——基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

防范系统性金融风险、维持金融体系的稳定是中国经济工作的重中之重.通过时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)分析实体经济杠杆率、影子银行规模对系统性金融风险的时变影响.研究发现,实体经济杠杆率与影子银行规模之间存在相互促进的关系,并且两者对系统性金融风险的冲击响应具有时变性和实滞效应.鉴于此,应加强实体经济部门去杠杆、影子银行监管,注重各金融风险防范政策之间的联动反应,以维护金融体系的稳定.     

Performance implications of delayed competitive responses: evidence from the U.S. retail industry

The timing of competitive actions and responses is a key management concern that has important performance consequences. This study focuses on the timing and consequences of competitive responses. Theory predicts a negative linear relationship between response delay and responder performance mirrored by an opposing positive linear relationship between response delay and first mover performance. In contrast, our study suggests that response delay has a curvilinear relationship with responder performance, and a linear relationship with first mover performance. We test our propositions using retail industry data and discuss the implications. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Growth differentials in OECD countries: some reflections

This note briefly addresses two questions related to growth performance in the OECD area, namely: 1) why have so few OECD countries seen an increase in productivity related to investment in Information and Communications Technology (ICT); 2) how does the environment for firm creation affect growth in OECD countries? The note points to some recent empirical work with firm-level data on these issues and suggests that further cross-country research with such data could be very helpful.     

Cultural transmission, socialization and the population dynamics of multiple-trait distributions

This paper studies the population dynamics of multiple preference traits in a model of intergenerational cultural transmission. Parents socialize and transmit their preferences to their children with endogenous intensities. Populations concentrated on a single cultural group are in general not stable. There is a unique stable stationary distribution, and it supports two or more cultural groups, in particular those with greater intolerance with respect to others' traits. The larger the heterogeneity of intolerance levels across cultural groups, the smaller the number of traits that are supported in the stable stationary distribution.     

学哲学 扬理性 促科学发展

学哲学扬理性促科学发展孙坦一人是万物之灵，既有情感又有理智，既能情感体验，又能理性思维。而人类的复杂性正在于此。仔细想想，社会舞台上演出的正剧、悲剧或喜剧，有哪一幕不是用情感和理智编织而成的？孔子曰：四十而不惑。此言说明，一般而言，情感和理智的分配在...     

High-Tech Innovation,Growth and Trade Dynamics in Australia

In this paper the macro-economic interactions between high-tech innovation (telecommunications), growth and trade are analysed at the macroeconomic level. Cointegration and innovation accounting based on vector autoregression techniques have been used to estimate empirically the trade and growth dynamics in the Australian context. The paper reviews the high-tech innovation induced policy regime shifts such as the deregulation of telecommunications and the liberalisation of trade and also quantifies trade and growth dynamics.     

Economic Growth in Transition

This paper sets the contributions to this issue in the context of a large and rapidly growing literature. It argues, on theoretical and empirical grounds, that future research should focus on transitional growth dynamics.     

UK External Imbalances and the Sterling: Are they on a Sustainable Path?

An updated version of Krugman’s 1993 MMF framework is used to consider the implications of buoyant domestic demand for the real exchange rate and debt dynamics. The updating includes a Taylor rule for monetary policy and explicit treatment of external assets and liabilities. In response to an exogenous rise in the aggregate demand, short-run appreciation of the real exchange rate is followed by a prolonged decline as external debt accumulates and net wealth deteriorates. Whether in equilibrium the real exchange rate is stronger or weaker depends crucially on a comparison of real interest rates and the growth rate. If the domestic growth rate is higher than global real interest rates, the currency may strengthen in the long run despite the deterioration of net external assets. To see whether the strength of sterling is sustainable, the analysis is briefly calibrated to UK data over the last decade. Blanchard et al. (The US current account and the dollar. CEPR DP no 4888, 2005) suggest that international liabilities to be treated as imperfect substitutes: so we check to see how this would affect our results.

Evolution of market shares with repeated purchases and heterogeneous network externalities

We investigate how market shares change when a new, superior technology exhibiting network externalities is introduced in a market initially dominated by an old technology. This is done under the assumption that consumers are heterogeneous in their valuation of technology quality and network externalities and that goods are not (perfectly) durable and thus have to be bought repeatedly. When both technologies are unsponsored, the old technology dominates when the quality difference is small, and it disappears when the quality difference is large. When the new technology is sponsored, the relationship between the quality difference and the long-run market share of the new technology is non-monotonic and the old technology always continues to exist.