中国分城镇乡村人口平均预期寿命探析

利用人口普查和人口调查资料,通过生命表的Logit模型估计了2009年全国城镇乡村的人口平均预期寿命,给出了部分普查年份按城乡分年龄性别的预期寿命。分析了近30年来中国平均预期寿命的变化特点,并同发达国家进行了对比分析。其结果可反映中国平均预期寿命的增长趋势,对未来人口发展预测也有一定的参考价值。     

河南省产业关联能力变动研究

产业关联变动趋势是反映国民经济各部门内在经济联系变化规律的重要指标,认清产业关联的变化轨迹对于产业转型政策的制定具有重要意义。用影响力系数、感应度系数和部门产出比重相叠加,构建波及能力指数和感应能力指数,并利用这两个指数和《1987—2007年河南省投入产出表》,分析河南省产业关联变化的趋势。结果发现:1987—2007年间河南省的循环累计增长部门以传统产业和资源密集型产业为主,推进产业转型的同时并不能完全放弃传统产业和资源密集型产业的优势;基础能源产业对河南省经济发展的影响和制约作用在逐渐增加;生产服务业和高技术产业发展相对滞后,但有明显的增长趋势。     

Life Expectancies for Small Areas: A Bayesian Random Effects Methodology

Monitoring small area contrasts in life expectancy is important for health policy purposes but subject to difficulties under conventional life table analysis. Additionally, the implicit model underlying conventional life table analysis involves a highly parametrized fixed effect approach. An alternative strategy proposed here involves an explicit model based on random effects for both small areas and age groups. The area effects are assumed to be spatially correlated, reflecting unknown mortality risk factors that are themselves typically spatially correlated. Often mortality observations are disaggregated by demographic category as well as by age and area, e.g. by gender or ethnic group, and multivariate area and age random effects will be used to pool over such groups. A case study considers variations in life expectancy in 1 118 small areas (known as wards) in Eastern England over a five-year period 1999–2003. The case study deaths data are classified by gender, age, and area, and a bivariate model for area and age effects is therefore applied. The interrelationship between the random area effects and two major influences on small area life expectancy is demonstrated in the study, these being area socio-economic status (or deprivation) and the location of nursing and residential homes for frail elderly.     

Apply 6-sigma methodology in measuring the competition quality of satisfaction performance—an example of ISP Industry

At present time the ISP (Internet Service Provider) already make a great impact to the human life as well as the economic society, everything has a close relation with the internet service and due to the fast development of information technology further lower the cost of ISP and improved the service speed as well as its quality. All of this make the customer layer of ISP more popular than before and thus bring up the fierce competition in this industry. Due to the entry barrier of high investment and high technology of ISP industry it has become as a monopoly market and the monopoly market is very respect the competition and cooperation relationship with competitors. Besides, most of the relevant literature in the past is focus on the measurement and analysis of customer to the self-company and few of them mention how to include the satisfaction of competitor’s customer into measurement and analysis. As golden strategy stated in the Sun-Tze Strategic: “Know yourself and know your competitor well, winning every war.” we must consider the strength, weakness, opportunity and threat on customer satisfaction of your company and competitors. Base on the above motivation, this article will apply the DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control) methodology of 6-Sigma, focus on the viewpoint of customer satisfaction of ISP industry. At first we utilize the 5 equal scale measurement define the network quality item of ISP, which provided by the self-company and competitors. And measuring the degree of “satisfaction” and “importance” of these quality items, then use the performance evaluation matrix and strength and weakness matrix to analyze the Strength, Weakness, Opportunity and Threat of self and competitors, focus on the quality items that fall out of the 2 sigma and use the strength–weakness strategic chart to establish the improvement strategy. And at last, utilize the strength–weakness matrix chart as the control tool to verify and sustain the effectiveness of the improved performance. The complete and easy measurement improvement model provided in this article can be used by the enterprise to effectively and quickly evaluating and analyzing the service quality of self and competitors. And under the reasonable cost condition with considering the competing opportunity and threat of market to effectively improving the customer service quality and promoting the overall customer satisfaction and create powerful high value-added quality competition strength.     

人民币升值对我国各行业利润率变动的影响——基于2007年投入产出表的研究

本文利用涵盖我国全部42个行业的2007年投入产出表,测算了所有行业的贸易汇率风险敞口。在此基础上,本文构建了一种新的定量分析方法,来分析人民币升值对各个行业的产品出口和中间品进口的不同影响,并用它模拟了在不同的升值幅度下各行业利润率的动态变化。结果显示:22个行业的利润率会因升值而提高,20个行业的利润率则会因升值而降低。另外,受损行业一般是劳动密集型和研发投入较少的竞争性行业,大多数受益行业则是属于资本密集型和研发投入较多的垄断性行业。因此,人民币升值的具体幅度和节奏要同国家在一定时期的产业和就业政策相协调,通过贸易结构的调整来降低行业的贸易汇率风险敞口,为优化经济结构、促进竞争与就业和保持经济平稳可持续增长作出贡献。     

How Efficient Is China’s Heavy Industry? A Perspective of Input–Output Analysis

Heavy industry accounts for nearly 65% of the energy consumption and over 60% of the electricity consumption of China. Under the framework of real savings and green GDP, the huge energy consumption and carbon emissions will bring in huge natural resource losses, and then affect the total factor productivity (TFP) seriously. When taking the input–output relationship into consideration, the natural resource losses of heavy industry will decrease significantly. As the upstream of the industrial chain, heavy industry offered a large number of subsidies to the downstream industries by providing energy, raw materials, and taking on carbon emissions. This article verified the transfer of natural resource losses among industries, and estimated the real TFP of heavy industry from input–output and traditional perspective, respectively. The results showed that there was an increasing trend in the growth rate of heavy industry’s TFP in the perspective of input–output.     

房地产企业资金收支计划表的合理编制

本文通过分析收支编制的特点的分析并作出了相对的建议,所以处理好房地产企业的财务工作,特别是收支编制资金计划表的准确计算、分析和评价对于企业的发展就有非常重要的意义。     

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach

Wider economic impacts of heavy flooding in Germany: a non-linear programming approach. Spatial Economic Analysis. This paper further develops a new methodology to estimate the wider, indirect impacts of major disasters, and applies it to the 2013 heavy flooding of southern and eastern Germany. We model the attempts of economic actors to continue their usual activities, as closely as possible, by minimizing the information gain between the pre- and post-disaster pattern of economic transactions of the economy at hand. Findings show that government support of local final demand substantially reduces the indirect losses of the floods, while having a disaster at the top of the business cycle increases them. Moreover, we find that assuming fixed trade origin shares and fixed industry market shares, as in all multiregional input–output models, leads to implausibly large estimates of the indirect losses.     

关于宏观税负与经济增长关系的探究

文章界定了宏观税负测度的指标和公式，评价了目前我国宏观税负的水平，通过计量模型分析，得出了宏观税负每提高一个百分点使GDP增速下降0．02个百分点的结论。     

无效经济计量和国民经济核算

对现实经济活动中存在的几种无效经济活动的剖析，分析了这些无效经济活动可能对国民经济核算产生的负面影响，并提出总产出和GDP进行当期修正和事后修正的建议，很有现实意义。