Herd Behaviour in Adoption of Network Technologies

In technology adoption, herd behaviour can lead to a suboptimal outcome as shown, among others, by Choi (1997). However, empirics find little support for the idea that a less efficient technology can conquer the market and lock out a more efficient one. Accordingly, we improve and generalize Choi's results, by introducing an additional source of uncertainty: the economic environment. We investigate how the economic environment can affect herding and consequently the efficiency of the technology choice. The result is a smaller adoption bias. In the limit, firms may optimally experiment with the new technology that turns out to be social welfare improving.     

Multiple Species Boreal Forests – What Faustmann Missed

Recent research in natural sciences shows that the dynamics in boreal forests are much more complex than what many models traditionally used in forestry economics reflect. This essay analyzes some challenges of accounting for such complexity. It shows that the optimal harvesting strategy for forest owners is history dependent and for some states of the forest, more than one strategy may be optimal.This paper confirms earlier literature on shallow lakes and coral reefs and shows that this kind of phenomena seem much more common than previously thought. They are valid for a wide range of ecosystems that cover large surfaces and they do not depend on the choice of some specific function to model the non-linearity. There are also indications that theses results could be obtained even for resources with concave growth if at least one species with non-linear growth affects their dynamics.     

浙江省科技型中小企业的产业发展特征与股权激励模式的选择

主要根据浙江省科技民营企业的产业发展特征，对实施企业股权激励机制的模式选择问题进行深入研究与探讨。首先，分析论述了企业产业发展特征对企业激励模式选择的影响；在此基础上，对浙江省科技民营企业实施股权激励机制几个理论问题进行分析与探讨。     

先进制造技术与生产流程的协同性研究

制造系统的有效性需要通过先进制造技术与生产流程的合理匹配来体现。在分析各种先进制造技术与生产流程相互关系的基础上,提出了协同度的概念,并给出了其计算方法。     

面向循环经济的企业技术战略与技术创新转型

在技术层面上,循环经济是一种新的技术范式。技术范式的转换要求技术战略和技术创新做出相应调整。技术战略的调整主要包括技术选择、技术方法论和技术理念。从跨越技术创新陷阱的角度,本文分析了循环经济下两组基本的技术创新形式:渐进性创新和根本性创新、产品创新和过程创新。本文认为,作为技术创新的主体,企业应该按照发展循环经济的要求,积极围绕"3R"原则,通过各种形式的技术创新,构建企业竞争优势。     

以创新群为基础的自主创新战略研究

创新在时间和经济空间上具有群集特性。它发起于根本性的(自主)创新,并能够产生强烈的创新溢出效应。分析认为,将自主创新战略建立在创新群的基础上,培育以国家战略性技术为核心的自主创新群,能够将创新能力的内生性与外生性较好地结合在一起,有利于我们实现完全的自主创新。     

企业创新体系研究

企业在市场中的竞争表面上是产品的竞争、技术的竞争,实质上却是隐含于产品、技术背后的企业之间创新能力、创新意识的竞争。“在创新中求发展”已成为企业界的共识。但企业究竟该如何创新,从哪些方面进行创新,成了企业经营中较为困惑的问题。本文在分析创新概念的基础上,提出了企业创新体系的目标及总体构建,并对创新体系的主要内容进行了具体研究,为企业创新实践提供参考。     

A review and validation of overall survival extrapolation in health technology assessments of cancer immunotherapy by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence: how did the initial best estimate compare to trial data subsequently made available?

Background: Validation of overall survival (OS) extrapolations of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) during the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Single Technology Assessment (STA) process is limited due to data still maturing at the time of submission. Inaccurate extrapolation may lead to inappropriate decision-making. The availability of more mature trial data facilitates a retrospective analysis of the plausibility and validity of initial extrapolations. This study compares these extrapolations to subsequently available longer-term data.

Methods: A systematic search of completed NICE appraisals of ICIs from March 2000 to December 2017 was performed. A targeted search was also undertaken to procure published OS data from the pivotal clinical trials for each identified STA made available post-submission to NICE. Initial Kaplan-Meier curves and associated extrapolations from NICE documentation were extracted to compare the accuracy of OS projections versus the most mature data.

Results: The review identified 11 STAs, of which 10 provided OS data upon submission to NICE. The extrapolations undertaken considered parametric or piecewise survival models. Additional data cut-offs provided a mean of 18 months of OS beyond the end of the original data. Initial extrapolations typically under-estimated OS from the most mature data cut-off by 0.4–2.7%, depending on the choice of assessment method and use of the manufacturer- or ERG-preferred extrapolation.

Conclusion: Long-term extrapolation of OS is required for NICE STAs based on initial immature OS data. The results of this study demonstrate that the initial OS extrapolations employed by manufacturers and ERGs generally predicted OS reasonably well when compared to more mature data (when available), although on average they appeared to underestimate OS. This review and validation shows that, while the choice of OS extrapolation is uncertain, the methods adopted are generally aligned with later-published follow-up data and appear appropriate for informing HTA decisions.     

逆向选择条件下技术许可中非排他性价格契约研究

通过经典的委托代理理论的应用,文章揭示了一类逆向选择条件下的技术许可中非排他性价格契约理论的内在机理。文章认为,通过针对差的类型的技术使用者的包含可变费用的契约和对好的类型的技术使用者的纯固定费用的契约,可以达到有效的排他性技术许可的目的;但为了有效的激励,技术所有者事前要对好的类型的技术使用者转移一定的信息租。     

全球化背景下以动态比较优势实现产业技术跨越

全球化背景下中国失去了采用传统保护手段来培育动态比较优势，而面对新的机遇和挑战，中国应立足于自身资源禀赋的比较优势，在某些产业的关键环节选择技术跨越来培育动态比较优势；并通过发展高新技术、加强对传统产业的技术改造和提高技术引进效果来有效实施技术跨越，在一定程度上占据国际分工制高点。