Implied Volatility of Interest Rate Options: An Empirical Investigation of the Market Model

We analyze the empirical properties of the volatilityimplied in options on the 13-week US Treasury bill rate. These options havenot been studied previously. It is shown that a European style put optionon the interest rate is equivalent to a call option on a zero-coupon bond.We apply the LIBOR market model and conduct a battery of validity tests tocompare three different volatility specifications: contact, affine, and exponentialvolatility. It appears that the additional parameter in the affine and theexponential volatility function is not justified. Overall, the LIBOR marketmodel fares well in describing these options.     

中国股市趋向弱势有效之实证研究

本在对中国股票市场有效性的研究结果进行考察的基础上，运用有效市场理论分析了相关研究中存在的问题，最后得出中国股票市场正趋于弱势有效的结论。     

A DEA Approach to Understanding the Productivity Growth of Malaysia's Manufacturing Industries

This paper seeks to explain the productivity growth performance of Malaysia's manufacturing sector using a panel data of 28 industries from 1981–1996. Here, the data envelopment analysis technique is used to calculate and decompose the Malmquist index of total factor productivity (TFP) growth into technical change, change in technical efficiency and change in scale efficiency. This allows the identification of the sources of productivity growth which is crucial for policy formulation. It was found that the annual TFP growth of the Malaysian manufacturing sector was low at 0.8% and this was driven by small gains in both technical change and technical efficiency, with industries operating close to optimum scale.     

提高聚合物驱三次采油技术工作质量

根据长庆油田第一个三次采油技术研究项目的现场应用，介绍了影响聚合物驱三次采油技术工作质量的因素，从质量控制入手，狠抓重点质量监测点，取得了明显增油降水的预期效果，获得了较大的社会效益和经济效益，为进一步深入研究注水开发后期提高原油采收率技术及其推广和应用奠定了基础。     

Price Linkages in Asian Equity Markets: Evidence Bordering the Asian Economic, Currency and Financial Crises

This paper examines price linkages among Asian equity markets in the period surrounding the recent Asian economic, financial and currency crises. Three developed markets (Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore) and six emerging markets (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand) are included in the analysis. Multivariate cointegration and level VAR procedures are conducted to examine causal relationships among these markets. The results indicate that there is a stationary relationship and significant causal linkages between the Asian equity markets. Nevertheless, lower causal relationships that exist between the developed and emerging equity markets suggest that opportunities for international portfolio diversification in Asian equity markets still exist.     

Risk Aversion,Uncertain Information,and Market Efficiency

Abstract. We reexamine and extend tests of the uncertain information hypothesis (UIH) proposed by Brown, Harlow, and Tinic (1988, 1993). We find that their empirical results are sensitive to the sampling procedure employed and that their particular methodology does not sufficiently distinguish between event and nonevent periods. When the sampling procedure is modified to identify only relatively large, isolated events, the test results generally do not support the UIH. Instead, significant price shocks are consistently followed by short-lived price reversals. We observe this behavior following positive and negative events regardless of whether the event is classified as risk increasing or risk decreasing.     

商业银行分支机构绩效评价系统的设计与实证分析

本文回顾了商业银行分支机构绩效评价理论的发展和实践现状,从追踪战略实施效果和评价流程角度建立了一套完善的绩效评价系统。具体包括按照商业银行经营的安全性、流动性、盈利性和发展性要求建立了基本指标及其修正体系,并引入评议指标完善评价体系;运用Delphi法和AHP相结合的方法设置权重;借鉴分段函数取代传统直线型处理“倒U型”指标的不利做法;基于相对绩效评价思想,建立了评价标准体系和功效系数法评价模型;并以某商业银行为例进行了实证分析。最后给出了本文研究的局限性和后续研究建议,并特别就引入效率评价维度来完善绩效评价系统设计进行了比较分析。     

我国个人所得税后续改革中必须考虑的若干问题

我国工资薪金个人所得税扣除额宜实行分地区浮动制度,而扣除额的调整必须与扣除方式的改革相结合才具有实质意义。从目前的征管实践来看,加强个人所得税管理、有效控制税源是确保改革目标实现的关键。此外,单纯追求个人所得税的公平功能而忽视其效率的作用,对我国社会政治经济的发展将产生不利的影响,也不符合改革的目标。     

基于政策目标的存款利息得税的有效性分析

我国1999年开征的存款利息所得税是一次典型意义上的相机调控行为,短期内达到了预期的调控目标。但随着政策持续时间的延长,政策刚性对社会公平和经济长期增长的负面影响也在逐步增强。而且相机性财政政策仅仅是一项短期政策,不应该被长期实施。相机性政策的长期实施不仅会使短期的政策效应丧失,而且政策刚性产生的负面影响将会不断扩大。对利息所得税而言,如果不能将其纳入个人所得税改革的整体框架内统筹安排,则应考虑尽快退出。     

国有股权治理与经营绩效

最近有关民营与国营企业的治理效率的讨论异常激烈,但较多的争论都是采用规范研究或者案例分析的方法,而国内较多的经济学者较早时候采用实证研究方法得出的结论大都为民营企业治理效率高于国有企业,本文采用中国证券市场运作相对成熟的1999-2003五年间的数据进行实证研究,对国有控股与非国有控股进行实证分析,得出的结论为国有控股企业平均业绩高于民营企业。这里当然有国有上市公司中一部分垄断性企业获取了垄断收益的影响,但是国有上市公司近年来不断提高业绩以及民营企业最近借壳上市后导致上市公司形成巨大亏损的事实都与本文的结论暗合。