Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation. An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India

Germany has committed itself toreducing its carbon emissions by 25 percent in2005 as compared to 1990 emission levels. Toachieve this goal, the government has recentlylaunched an environmental tax reform whichentails a continuous increase in energy taxesin conjunction with a revenue-neutral cut innon-wage labor costs. This policy is supposedto yield a double dividend, reducing both, theproblem of global warming and high unemploymentrates. In addition to domestic actions,international treaties on climate protectionallow for the supplementary use of flexibleinstruments to exploit cheaper emissionreduction possibilities elsewhere. One concreteoption for Germany would be to enter jointimplementation (JI) with developing countriessuch as India where Germany pays emissionreduction abroad rather than meeting itsreduction target solely by domestic action. Inthis paper, we investigate whether anenvironmental tax reform cum JI providesemployment and overall efficiency gains ascompared to an environmental tax reformstand-alone. We address this question in theframework of a large-scale general equilibriummodel for Germany and India where Germany mayundertake JI with the Indian electricitysector. Our main finding is that JI offsetslargely the adverse effects of carbon emissionconstraints on the German economy. JIsignificantly lowers the level of carbon taxesand thus reduces the total costs of abatementas well as negative effects on labor demand. Inaddition, JI triggers direct investment demandfor energy efficient power plants produced inGermany. This provides positive employmenteffects and additional income for Germany. ForIndia, joint implementation equips itselectricity industry with scarce capital goodsleading to a more efficient power productionwith lower electricity prices for the economyand substantial welfare gains.     

Modeling Disinterest and Dislike: A Bounded Bayesian Mixed Logit Model of the UK Market for GM Food

Mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form of the parameter distributions. The use of unbounded distributions, such as the normal distribution, may be regarded as unsuitable where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute, such as price. Bounded distributions such as the triangular and log-normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards an attribute, while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it. Train and Sonnier’s bounded mixed logit model accommodates these features and is employed in this paper. A censored normal and Johnson’s S_b distribution are used to model preferences in the UK for food attributes, including price and GM technology. Bi-modal distributions are identified regarding GM food: some are unlikely to ever consume it, some are close to indifference and willing to consume at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions.     

基于投入产出与解释结构建模法相结合的产业关联及层次识别建模

将投入产出方法与解释结构建模相结合,取长补短,提出了基于这两种方法相结合的产业关联层次识别的分析方法,并呈现了该方法的算法步骤、识别层次结果的基本特性以及其与以往产业关联分析方法的比较优势.最后以经统一调整的1997及2002年投入产出表为基础,对我国国民经济产业关联的层次识别进行实证分析,经对识别结果的跨期对比分析,证明该识别方法的解释效果良好.     

物流系统建模方法的研究

通过对现有系统建模分析方法的比较和分析,针对物流系统提出了一种集成建模分析GI-SIM法。该方法以概念、功能和动态建模思想为基础,以GRAI格、IDEFO和仿真技术为建模工具,满足了复杂物流系统的建模要求。最后,给出了GI-SIM法的建模步骤,并对其进行了总结和评价。     

物流系统规划-仿真集成化技术研究

通过对物流系统规划与仿真模型的分析，归纳出系统规划模型与系统仿真模型的共有属性和关系，采用集成化的技术，建立集成化规划一仿真系统模型，并通过Solidworks和Flexsim研究实现其集成化，并在相关课题中获得成功应用，突破了现有软件在规划与仿真之间数据共享的壁垒。     

浅析提高AutoCAD二维绘图的速度

AutoCAD已广泛应用于机械、建筑、电子、服装等众多领域,计算机绘图的快速、准确、美观以及便于管理的特点是手工绘图无可比拟的,特别是二维绘图已相当普及。文章从如何提高二维绘图速度和加强绘图技巧方面进行了阐述。     

军用车辆器材调拨业务流程重组模型研究

基于信息流分析,论述了军用车辆器材调拨系统中信息流程和业务流程的重组和优化应用,采用对象、岗位、任务三维视图的建模方法描述核心业务流程,提高了系统的可读性和可推广性。     

基于Petri网的物流分拣系统的建模与仿真

阐述了面向对象着色Petri网理论，并将它应用于物流分拣系统的建模，在分析该系统的基础上，建立了系统的面向对象着色Petri网模型，并借助AutoMod仿真软件对分拣系统进行了3D仿真。     

Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas

Foresight activities have often provided support for objectives such as priority-setting, networking and consensual vision-building. In this paper, we draw upon complementary evolutionary perspectives and discuss these objectives from the viewpoint of diversity which may be vital in contexts characterized by technological discontinuities and high uncertainties. We also argue that although the scanning of weak signals has been widely advocated in such contexts, the solicitation of ideas for prospective innovations may provide more focused, action-oriented, and comparable reflections of future developments. For the analysis of such ideas, we develop a collaborative foresight method RPM Screening which consists of phases for the generation, revision, multi-criteria evaluation, and portfolio analysis of innovation ideas. We also report experiences from a pilot project where this method was employed to enhance the work of the Foresight Forum of the Ministry of Trade and Industry in Finland. Encouraging results from this project and other recent applications suggest that RPM Screening can be helpful in foresight processes and the development of shared research agendas.     

生育政策的地区差异与儿童营养过剩关系研究

近年来,中国的肥胖儿童不断增多。由于该现象发生在“独生子女”政策开始实施以后,后者被认为是前者之因。然而,实证研究的缺乏使生育政策与儿童营养过剩之间的关系尚不明确。使用“中国健康和营养调查”数据,探讨政策与儿童(0-12岁)营养过剩之间的关系。多层模型和纵向分析结果显示,其一,儿童营养过剩的比例在90年代持续攀升,但增长速度较慢。其二,虽然生活在一孩生育政策地区的儿童营养过剩的比例高于其它地区儿童,独生子女营养过剩的比例超过非独生子女,但在其它条件同等的情况下,生育政策的地区差异和姊妹结构与儿童营养过剩概率无显著关联。分析结果并不支持“独生子女政策造成了儿童肥胖”的公共观点。影响儿童营养过剩的主要因素包括父母的体重、母亲的教育、社区发展水平和省份。