La gestión mecanicista de las Instituciones de Educación Superior: un estudio desde la modelación sistémica

The bureaucratic tendencies to organize work in Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) of which facilitates personnel control and the mechanical ways to measure educational content are the ones that shatter education in pieces, under the hierarchy criterion, also shattering the professor's labor. This organizational method results in an incompetent education, leaving very negative consequences for teaching development. We address this problem by using systemic modeling and Structural Equations Systems (SEM) to confirm hypotheses from scientific observation. It was proven that there was a negative impact of mechanistic management which affected teacher's development. This was proven in context in two HEIs located in Villahermosa (Tabasco, Mexico).     

The role of destination personality fit in destination branding: Antecedents and outcomes

Drawing from fit research in strategic management, this study develops and investigates a model predicting destination attitude and (re)visit intention. The study introduces the concept of destination personality fit on the basis of how well consumer perceptions of a tourist destination's brand personality fits that of what the destination brand manager wishes to convey. A model incorporating destination advertising awareness as an antecedent of destination personality and consumer‐manager destination personality fit is tested on international consumers with the destination personality of Switzerland as the study setting. Structural equation modeling results reveal that destination advertising awareness does indeed relate positively to both stronger perceived destination personality and destination personality fit in consumers’ minds. Interestingly, the subsequent destination personality–destination attitude relationship is moderated by consumer–manager destination personality fit in such a way that the link grows stronger in cases where fit is high. The results have important implications for destination brand managers in that they reinforce the importance of strong and distinct destination personalities. The findings also show the importance of actively communicating the destination brand to consumers since the positive outcomes of a strong destination personality increase in magnitude when successfully communicated, and the vision of the destination brand manager has been adopted by the consumer.     

基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模过程评价框架研究

文章从多分辨率交通仿真的建模过程入手,研究了系统仿真的校核、验证与确认(Verification Validation Accreditation,VVA)过程评价的原理。在此基础上,提出了基于VVA的多分辨率交通仿真建模的过程评价框架。通过研究仿真系统生命周期中的一系列活动来评价研究结果的正确性和有效性,提高了系统的可信性,使仿真系统能够满足实际应用的需要。     

Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment

Assessing the reversal of sentiment in stock markets is needed because, according to the social mood cycle, the change of social mood over time is an antecedent of price movements. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess reversal of investor sentiment, to show the phases of social mood cycle from increasing mood to decreasing mood, and to explain the dynamic change in market inefficiency from increasing to decreasing. Growth modeling, developed particularly for dealing with the change over time, is used in this study for assessing the reversal of investor sentiment. The autocovariance structure of errors and the variances/covariances of the random coefficients are all taken into account in the model. The results have indicated that the change in investor sentiment over time is inverted U-shaped for the entire market. Moreover, arbitrage constraint and stock characteristics exert a joint moderating effect on sentiment reversal. Less arbitrage constraint can strengthen sentiment reversal only when the market for individual stocks is dominated by noise traders. Based on the results obtained, we discuss asset pricing, liquidity management, and market intervention.     

基于GIS的边坡三维极限平衡模型研究

自然界中发生的滑坡绝大多数呈三维形态,边坡稳定性分析应从三维的角度进行处理。在实际边坡工程作业中,科学地计算边坡受到边界条件约束、荷载作用、土体性质在空间上变异等实际形态的影响,同样需要进行三维稳定性分析。目前边坡稳定性分析仍以二维极限平衡法为主。当滑动面已经确定时,使用三维分析可以恰当地考虑滑坡的三维形态对安全系数的影响,同时可以避免二维分析时如何选择代表性横截面,计算结果是否合理等问题。     

Small system dynamics model for alleviating the general practitioners rural care gap in Ontario,Canada

The disproportionate concentration of healthcare professionals in urban areas is a concern in many countries, including Canada. A need to address this rural care gap has driven a large number of government led initiatives worldwide over the years. This paper presents a model that can be used as a tool to examine the efficacy of such policies on the workforce distribution in the long term. A small system dynamics model is employed to simulate the current and future distribution of general physicians at a jurisdictional level. The model represents the transition of general practitioners to provide insight into the dynamics of care provision over time. The movement, and competition, between rural and urban areas is modeled to enable detailed exploration of the ability for proposed measures to alleviate the care gap in the future. Among the tested policies are such commonly used initiatives as financial incentives to rural professionals, promotion of medical education in rural areas, expansion of rural education programs and the engagement of international medical graduates etc. We demonstrate how the model can be used as a tool to determine an efficient and well-chosen combination of policies which can help alleviate the rural care gap in the future, given that some policies are more effective than others alone but also combined with other initiatives. The presented small system dynamics model is tested on Canada's reality, but its simple nature lends itself to easy application to other countries that experience a similar problem.     

The effect of controversial global sourcing practices on the ethical judgments and intentions of U.S. consumers

Global sourcing has led to lower cost and more effective supply chains for many companies. However, when the cost-driven practices of many suppliers in these chains come to light there is often considerable debate over the ethics of these practices. This research uses the well-known Hunt–Vitell framework as the theoretical foundation for a structural equation model of the deontological and teleological evaluations used by consumers when making ethical judgments of a firm's controversial cost-driven global sourcing practices. Data from a large-scale U.S. consumer survey show the importance of deontological and teleological evaluations in forming consumers’ ethical judgments of global sourcing practices, and establish a strong relationship between ethical judgment and the intention of consumers to alter consumption of a firm's products. Extensions to the framework and demographic analyses for age, gender, and income provide insights as to how perceptions of these practices affect consumer evaluations of a company involved in global sourcing and how consumers actualize their resultant intentions.     

大倾角综采工作面撤除工艺优化与应用

大倾角综采工作面设备快速撤除一直是煤矿生产的技术难题。本文针对刘庄煤矿121106俯采工作面撤除难题,通过合理优化工作面设备撤除整体路线以及撤除施工工艺,实现了工作面设备的安全快速撤除。     

Model Comparison for Temperature-Based Weather Derivatives in Mainland China

Abstract:

In this paper, we provide a comparison of two models of temperature-based weather derivatives. The Alaton et al. model (2002) and the continuous-time autoregressive (CAR) model of Benth et al. (2007) are applied to temperature data from twelve cities in China. The objective is to determine which is the better model for temperature derivative modeling in Chinese cities. We found the CAR model to be more accurate in terms of normality of residuals and smaller relative errors. However, the shortcomings of both the Alaton et al. model and the CAR model are revealed in this study as well.