A cellular automata-based land-use model as an integrated spatial decision support system for urban planning in developing cities: The case of the Bogotá region

Bogotá and the 17 neighboring municipalities make up one of the biggest metropolitan areas in Latin America. However, despite strong functional interactions within the area, there is no official government body at this level in charge of coordinating authorities and providing solutions to the wide variety of issues arising in the regional urban land system. Aiming at providing an insight on future land-use developments linked to new transport infrastructures and at offering a tool to support territorial decision-making, this paper presents a cellular automata-based (CA) model based in Metronamica® software, that allows testing different scenarios based on potential land-use policies, environmental suitability and transport alternatives.There has not been, so far, an urban planning tool that accounts for the complexities of this region. CA-based land-use simulations constitute a useful approach to understanding the impacts of urban planning policies and regulations. This tool can help to improve inter-territorial and inter-institutional coordination, which through planning and management policies seek a spatially integrated development, with a long-term perspective.The CA-based model proposed was calibrated to reproduce land-use changes between 2007 and 2016 using different methods and indicators. The model was used to simulate and analyze eight scenarios with different policy directions of transport infrastructure in the future of the region. The results of the simulations reflect the dynamics of territorial occupation. The calibration indices in the experiment indicate a high degree of suitability for the CA Bogotá model, proving its effectiveness and potential as a useful tool for decision-making. The results show that occupation scenarios with restricted developable zones within the city, tend to have the greater dispersion rate in the study area, compared to scenarios where land development plans are promoted in Bogotá, which representing a more compact development.     

Partial least squares structural equation modeling in HRM research

Abstract

Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) has become a key multivariate analysis technique that human resource management (HRM) researchers frequently use. While most disciplines undertake regular critical reflections on the use of important methods to ensure rigorous research and publication practices, the use of PLS-SEM in HRM has not been analyzed so far. To address this gap in HRM literature, this paper presents a critical review of PLS-SEM use in 77 HRM studies published over a 30-year period in leading journals. By contrasting the review results with state-of-the-art guidelines for use of the method, we identify several areas that offer room of improvement when applying PLS-SEM in HRM studies. Our findings offer important guidance for future use of the PLS-SEM method in HRM and related fields.     

悬臂式掘进机回转机构的分析与建模

基于悬臂式掘进机回转机构的结构特点,对其液压控制系统的运行原理展开分析,并结合假设条件建立液压元件的基本方程,通过机理建模最后得到了系统的传递函数,为实现掘进机自动控制提供了实用的简化模型。     

Latent vs. Observed Variables: Analysis of Irrigation Water Efficiency Using SEM and SUR

In this paper we compare conceptualising single factor technical and allocative efficiency as indicators of a single latent variable, or as separate observed variables. In the former case, the impacts on both efficiency types are analysed by means of structural equation modeling (SEM), in the latter by seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). We compare estimation results of the two approaches based on a dataset on single factor irrigation water use efficiency obtained from a survey of 360 farmers in the Guanzhong Plain, China. The main methodological findings are that SEM allows identification of the most important dimension of irrigation water efficiency (technical efficiency) via comparison of their factor scores and reliability. Moreover, it reduces multicollinearity and attenuation bias. It thus is preferable to SUR. The SEM estimates show that perception of water scarcity is the most important positive determinant of both types of efficiency, followed by irrigation infrastructure, income and water price. Furthermore, there is a strong negative reverse effect from efficiency on perception.     

Carbon and energy prices under uncertainty: A theoretical analysis of fuel switching with heterogenous power plants

European power producers have a major influence on the EU ETS, given that both their CO₂ emissions and their EUA (European Union Allowance) allocations account for more than half of the total volumes of the scheme. Fuel switching is often considered as the main short-term abatement measure under the EU ETS. It consists in substituting combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) for hard-coal plants in power generation. Thereby coal plants run for shorter periods, and CO₂ emissions are reduced. This paper provides the first theoretical analysis of fuel switching, in a context where power plants involved are not equally efficient. We begin with a preliminary work using illustrative examples and sensitivity analyses, which enables us to observe how differences in the efficiency of power plants impact the cost of fuel switching, and how this is related to the level of switching effort. Based on this, we build a theoretical model taking into account the effect of differences in the efficiency of power plants involved in fuel switching. We also investigate the effect of the timing of fuel switching abatements, within the temporally defined environment of our dynamic model. Results demonstrate that the gas price and uncontrolled CO₂ emissions act together on the carbon price. We show that the influence of the gas price on the carbon price depends on the level of uncontrolled CO₂ emissions, due to heterogeneity of power plants that are used in the fuel switching process. Furthermore, we show that the time of occurrence of uncontrolled emissions matters so that shocks have a stronger impact when they occur in a period that is closed to the end of the phase.     

Assessing the Effects of Climate Change Regulations on the Business Community: A System Dynamic Approach

Based on the business environmental literature and system dynamics, this paper develops a simulation model for managing the business risks derived from climate change. In particular, the purpose of this paper is to transform the valuable findings from the literature regarding climate change and corporate implications into an effective business management model with a broad applicability, regardless of the size of the business or the sector in which it operates. A methodology consistent with the basic principles of the system dynamic modeling process is developed, and a case study is designed to determine the level of completeness of the simulation model and its ability to address different aspects of business performance. To do so, three different scenarios have been simulated to analyze the reactive, proactive and inactive stance of managers against climate change risks. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Is brand alliance always beneficial to firms?

In this research, we develop a fresh analytical model to examine the impact of brand quality on the firms’ performances when two firms selling substitute products form a brand alliance. Our results indicate that when two products have equal brand qualities, brand alliance is always a beneficial strategy for two firms to employ. However, when two products have different brand qualities, brand quality differential shows a positive relationship with the profit of the firm with the low-quality brand but demonstrates a negative relationship with the profit of the firm with the high-quality brand in the brand alliance. Our results also show that brand quality differential has a greater effect on the profit of the firm with the high-quality brand than on that of the firm with the low-quality brand. In addition, we find that brand alliance becomes much more valuable to the firm with the high-quality brand when the brand quality differential decreases, but the value of brand alliance has a concave relationship with the profit of the firm with the low-quality brand when the brand quality differential increases.     

Incorporating activity space and trip chaining into facility siting for accessibility maximization

Location models have been widely used to support locational decisions for various service provision. One common objective of location models has been to ensure maximal accessibility of sited facilities to demand populations. Accessibility evaluation in location models often assumes that trips originate from fixed locations (usually home) and are single purpose. These assumptions contradict the empirical evidence that suggests trips also commonly originate from non-home locations and may involve multiple stops. In this study, a new multi-objective location model is developed that extents the classic p-median problem (PMP) to account for a more realistic assessment of accessibility. Based on the individual accessibility assessment, notions of trip chaining and activity space are incorporated into the model development. In addition to fixed home locations, stops along chained trips are allowed for potential service site visits, and activity space is introduced as an additional dimension to evaluate accessibility of alternative opportunities. The effectiveness of the new model is demonstrated using an application in Tucson, AZ.     

转向架存放库货架结构设计及有限元分析

为满足转向架检修的需求,在转向架检修库中特别设置一个立体存放库。由于国内目前没有转向架的立体存放库,故采用升降横移式立体车库的方式对转向架存放库货架结构进行了设计。通过有限元方法对货架进行分析与计算,在保证货架承载强度、变形和稳定性的要求下,将原来的壁厚8 mm的钢板改为6 mm,从而减轻了货架的质量,满足了仓储的需要。     

Life-cycle funds: Much Ado about Nothing?

The core idea of life-cycle funds or target-date funds is to decrease the fund's equity exposure and conversely increase its bond exposure towards the fund's target date. Such funds have been gaining significant market share and were recently set as default choice of asset allocation in numerous defined contribution schemes or related old-age provision products in several countries. Hence, an assessment of life-cycle funds’ risk-return profiles – that is, the probability distribution of returns – is essential for sustainable financial planning of a large group of investors. This paper studies the risk-return profile of life-cycle funds in particular compared to simple balanced or lifestyle funds that apply a constant equity portion throughout the fund's term instead. In a Black–Scholes model, we derive balanced funds that reproduce the risk-return profile of an arbitrary life-cycle fund for single and regular contributions. We then analyze the accuracy of our results under more complex asset models with stochastic interest rates, stochastic equity volatility and jumps. We further show that frequently used ‘rule of thumb approximations’ that only take into account the life-cycle fund's average equity portion are not suitable to approximate a life-cycle fund's risk-return profile. Our results on the one hand facilitate sustainable financial planning and on the other hand challenge the very existence of life-cycle funds since appropriately calibrated balanced funds can offer a similar (often dominating) risk-return profile.