Using diffusion models to forecast market size in emerging markets with applications to the Chinese car market

Marketing managers have to forecast the market size and this forecast guides strategic decisions whether to continue exporting, open new factories or expand existing production operations. Forecasting sales and the market size is a challenging task; even more so in emerging markets where data is limited and the market demand is changeable. This research proposes a novel approach that applies diffusion models using car ownership data to forecast car sales. Car ownership data may be easier to access than sales data in emerging markets but marketing managers are more interested in the sales forecast. Researchers propose using diffusion models to forecast the adoption of new products or products which are new to consumers in a market. This research demonstrates that marketing managers can use diffusion models to predict car sales in China where cars are new products to most consumers in this market. Since the majority of car buyers in China are first time buyers, car manufacturers and retailers must also forecast when the market composition will change. This effectively means predicting when first time car buying will start to slow down and repeat/replacement purchase or second hand car purchase will become more important. To forecast both sales and market composition change, marketing managers must choose a robust model. Managers want insights from models that have been tested robustly especially in less stable market conditions. In this context, this study illustrates the value of using a rolling forecast instead of a fixed horizon approach when comparing and choosing which model to use to forecast both sales and market composition change for the Chinese car market.     

“You Can't Make a Good Wine without a Few Beers”: Gatekeepers and knowledge flow in industrial districts

Knowledge sharing sometimes plays a key role in the performance of clustered organizations, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), however, SMEs also face significant knowledge-related disadvantages due to their lack of absorptive capacity and functional expertise. This study investigates the influence of technical specialists on knowledge flow in a wine cluster in Australia. The main contribution of this paper is a finding that the technical specialist's gatekeeping role both links clustered SMEs to the global wine “systemworld” by transferring knowledge of technical developments and innovation, and simultaneously develops and refines regional winemaking styles by sharing locally specific, experientially derived knowledge. Technical specialists drew on bridging and bonding social capital to identify and retrieve specialist knowledge, and were capable of assimilating complex technical knowledge into the cluster. These findings are particularly significant because recipients were typically small and micro-firms, which are frequently located outside cluster knowledge-network.     

How much to give? — The effect of donation size on tactical and strategic success in cause-related marketing

In cause-related marketing (CM), companies promise a donation to a cause every time a consumer makes a purchase. We analyze the impact of the size of this donation on brand choice (tactical success) and brand image (strategic success). Our results reveal different effects of donation size on these success measures. For brand choice, the effect of donation size is moderated by a financial trade-off for consumers, whereas the effect on brand image is moderated by donation framing. Specifically, we show that donation size has a positive effect on brand choice if consumers face no financial trade-off; i.e., if they do not have to choose between triggering a donation or saving money. The effect is negative if a trade-off exists such that higher donations come at higher costs. Brand image is enhanced by larger donations if the framing is nonmonetary (e.g., the campaign promises the provision of vaccinations), whereas donation size has a negative effect if donation framing is monetary (e.g., the campaign states the Euro amount). If campaigns use a combination of both frames, the effect of donation size on brand image has an inverted U shape. Our results suggest that CM enhances tactical and strategic success only if firms select the right donation size, taking into account donation framing and financial trade-offs.     

文化折扣、市场规模与中国文化产品出口

近年来我国对于文化产品出口给予了高度重视。基于2003年至2011年相关数据,本文以文化折扣和市场规模两个因素为重点,分析了我国核心文化产品出口贸易的决定因素。实证结果显示,无论是基于全部还是基于分类产品贸易额的检验,都证实了市场规模因素的正面影响以及文化折扣因素的负面影响。上述结论的政策含义体现在两个方面：一是应合理确定重点出口市场,加强对重点目标市场的深入分析,通过双边或多边合作减少贸易壁垒,确保中国文化产品的商业存在及公平竞争。二是要充分重视文化折扣效应的不利影响,充分借鉴他国开展文化外交的有效举措,大力推动我国文化传播,提升我国文化的国际影响力和认知度。     

非正式审计团队对审计质量的影响：规模至上还是质量优先？

在以往研究的基础上,提出了非正式审计团队质量的概念,并构建了非正式审计团队质量的综合指标,从团队规模和团队质量两个方面检验了非正式审计团队对审计质量的影响。研究发现,非正式审计团队规模对审计质量不存在显著影响,这与以往研究的“显著负向影响”结论不一致,而非正式审计团队质量能够显著提高审计质量;当将两者纳入同一研究模型时,上述结论不变。非正式审计团队质量对审计质量的影响更具有价值。进一步研究考察了审计环境、客体和主体不同层面因素在两者关系中的调节作用。结论拓展了审计师团队对审计质量影响的相关研究,为会计师事务所的内部治理提供了经验证据和管理启示。     

NAFTA as a Means of Raising Rivals' Costs

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was designed to reduce tariff rates between Mexico, Canada and the U.S.A. over a period of ten years. However, lower tariff rates are only available to firms that comply with complicated and costly NAFTA filing regulations. Such regulations raise costs of small firms relative to large firms in a domestic industry which engages in trade between NAFTA countries. This implication of NAFTA regulations can lead to increased concentration in domestic industries, an hypothesis which can be tested as the transition period comes to an end. Finally, our model suggests an explanation for why the levels of trade from the U.S.A. to Mexico have been lower than general expectations.     

Why Do Large Firms' Prices Anticipate Earnings Earlier than Small Firms' Prices?*

This paper presents evidence that the positive association between firm size and price leads of earnings is not solely a function of private search incentives for firm‐specific information. Specifically, we find that small‐firm prices also lag large‐firm prices with respect to industry‐wide information. Our empirical analysis extends Collins, Kothari, and Rayburn 1987 and Freeman 1987, who document that security‐price leads of earnings are positively associated with market capitalization. In particular, we examine the association between firm size and the timing of security returns for two components of annual earnings changes: the average change for a firm's industry and the firm's idiosyncratic change. We find that large firms' prices have a longer lead than small firms' prices with respect to both components. Large firms' early lead on industry‐wide earnings suggests that returns of large firms predict returns of same‐industry small firms. To test this implication, we construct a portfolio of long (short) positions in small firms when the prior month's returns of large firms in their industry are above (below) average for large firms in other industries. This zero investment portfolio earns 4.5 percent over 12 months.     

Economy size and performance: An efficiency analysis in the telecommunications sector

The existing empirical evidence on the relationship between economy size and performance has been inconclusive. This paper employs stochastic frontier analysis to estimate economic measures of efficiency for the telecommunications sectors of 139 economies and examine their relationship with economy size. Simultaneously, it controls for the effects of competition in telecommunications, privatization of state-owned providers, independent regulators, and the quality of political institutions on sector performance. The findings suggest that economy size has a positive but decreasing impact on sector performance. Small economies have an incentive to grow to improve sector performance, though larger size is not a sufficient condition for efficiency. Sector policy and the quality of polity may contribute significantly to sector performance.     

社会经济调查中整群抽样的应用及误差处理方法

本文从技术上探讨了整群抽样在社会经济调查中的适应性及其基本运用,重点分析了整群抽样在实施过程中的误差问题,指出并分析了总体的变异效应、群体效应、单位比率变异度的效应、群体规模效应和偏差效应等五种因素对整群抽样的误差的影响方式和特点,并分析了各种情况下的具体处理方法。     

Country size and the rule of law: Resuscitating Montesquieu

In this paper, we demonstrate that there is a robust negative relationship between the size of country territory and a measure of the rule of law for a large cross-section of countries. We outline a framework featuring two main reasons for this regularity; firstly that institutional quality often has the character of a local public good that is imperfectly spread across space from the core of the country to the hinterland, and secondly that a large territory usually is accompanied by valuable rents and a lack of openness that both tend to distort property rights institutions. Our empirical analysis further shows some evidence that whether the capital is centrally or peripherally located within the country matters for the average level of rule of law.