Sample Design and Allocation for Random Digit Dialling

Sample design and sample allocation methods are developed for random digit dialling in household telephone surveys. The proposed method is based on a two-way stratification of telephone numbers. A weighted probability proportional to size sample allocation technique is used, with auxiliary variables about the telephone coverage rates, within local telephone exchanges of each substrata. This makes the sampling design nearly “self-weighting” in residential numbers when the prior information is well assigned. A computer program generates random numbers for the local areas within the existing phone capacities. A simulation study has shown greater sample allocation gain by the weighted probabilities proportional to size measures over other sample allocation methods. The amount of dialling required to obtain the sample is less than for proportional allocation. A decrease is also observed on the gain in sample allocation for some methods through the increasing sample sizes.     

耕地流转与规模经营改善了农业环境吗？ ——基于耕地利用行为对农业环境效率的影响检验

研究目的:基于2007—2016年26省农业生产数据,测算"面源污染"和"碳排放"两类非期望产出下的农业环境效率,构建"耕地流转—利用规模—利用方式与利用强度—农业环境效率"的传导路径并进行计量检验。研究方法:超效率SBM模型,中介效应模型。研究结果:(1)耕地流转并未显著提高农业环境效率,但耕地利用规模对农业环境效率的影响呈倒U型;(2)耕地流转有助于扩大耕地利用规模,进而在样本中对农业环境效率呈现负向影响。与此同时,耕地流转对农业环境效率也存在正向的直接效应,正负效应基本抵消;(3)耕地利用规模主要通过改变化肥和机械投入强度进而负向影响农业环境效率。研究结论:农业环境效率受耕地流转、利用规模、利用方式和强度等多重因素影响,呈现明显的传导路径,因此,为了提高农业环境效率,在积极推行土地流转和规模化经营政策时,要注意结合地区农业生产力和地理环境,避免盲目扩大经营规模,同时鼓励规模经营主体引进农业绿色环保技术,注重农业生产资料的合理利用。     

收入差距、有效需求与自主创新

文章利用中国地区层面的面板数据,实证检验了收入差距与自主创新之间的关系。研究发现,收入差距与中国自主创新呈倒"U"形关系,收入差距既可以通过扩大创新产品的需求规模促进国家或地区的技术创新,又可以通过抑制消费结构升级最终阻碍国家或地区技术创新能力的提升;收入差距对技术创新的影响存在显著的区域差异性,在东部和中部地区其影响显著为正,而在西部地区其影响为负但不显著;当前,我国大部分地区的城乡收入比均处于倒"U"形曲线的上升阶段,对这些地区而言,适当的收入差距促进了其自主创新能力的提升。     

聚集抑或扩散——城市规模影响城乡收入差距的理论机制及实证分析

区域中心城市的规模变动引起聚集效应和扩散效应强度的变化,进而影响区域内城镇、农村居民收入水平及城乡收入差距。利用286个地级以上城市2008年的截面数据和2003—2008年面板数据的实证分析显示:总体上中心城市规模越大,区域城乡收入差距越小,城乡收入差距随城市规模变动呈现出U型特征;中心城市的分散型结构有利于缩小区域城乡收入差距,城市经济发展水平越高,城乡收入差距越小;不同规模等级的城市规模对城乡收入差距的影响效应存在较大差异。这些结论对于推动城市可持续发展、统筹城乡发展具有启示意义。     

中国制造业集聚的实证研究：基于企业规模异质性视角

本文基于中国制造业集聚的数据,从企业规模异质性视角出发,检验中国制造业集聚经济效应。首先考察影响制造业集聚的一般因素,然后重点考察了企业规模因素对集聚经济的影响机制。研究发现：除了运输成本优势、劳动力成本等影响制造业集聚的一般因素之外,企业规模异质性也对集聚经济效应产生影响。最后通过构造隐含企业规模因素的集聚经济新变量,对企业规模异质的集聚经济效应进行检验。本文的研究发现,小型企业的专业化经济和竞争效应大于大中型企业。这一结论不仅反映了不同规模企业对制造业集聚影响的差异,也说明了小型企业对制造业集聚的重要性。     

范围经济与商业企业地理集群

商业企业地理集群已成为21世纪中国市场经济发展的新景观。基于博弈论构建了线性空间中寡头垄断市场结构下商业企业的区位选择模型,探究了商业企业空间集聚的经济机理。证明了在消费者具有多样化偏好的环境下,经营差异化产品商业企业的市场需求相互依赖,这导致了企业区位选择过程中的范围经济性。商业企业地理集群是具有完美预期的商业企业对消费者购物行为反应的均衡结果。还发现在均衡中商品的价格随着市场群落中产品差异性的扩大而增加。区位选择的模型不仅揭示了商业企业地理集群的经济机理,还可以解释涉及市场群落的许多现象。     

The effects of mergers and acquisitions on the firm size distribution

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on the shape of the firm size distribution, by using data of the population of manufacturing firms in the Netherlands. Our analysis shows that M&As do not affect the size distribution when we consider the entire population of firms. When we focus on the firms involved in an M&A event, we observe a shift of the firm size distribution towards larger sizes. Firm size distribution becomes more concentrated around the mean, less skewed to the right hand side, and thinner at the tails as a whole. The shift toward higher sizes due to M&A is not uniform but affects firms of different sizes in different ways. While the number of firms in the lower tail decreased, the number of firms in the central size classes increased substantially and outweighed the increase in the number (and mean size) of firms in the upper tail of the distribution (consequently the overall market concentration measured by the Herfindahl index declines). M&As lead to a departure from log-normality of the firm size distribution, suggesting that external growth does not follow Gibrat’s law. Our counterfactual analysis highlights that only internal growth does not affect the shape of the size distribution of firms. On the contrary, it suggests that the change in the size distribution is almost entirely due to the external growth of the firms.

Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

住宅套型的物理性能质量衡定标准探讨

本文从住宅套型的声环境、光环境、热舒适环境和通风环境四大方面入手,对影响住宅套型性能质量之物理性能质量进行探讨。     

The analysis of determinants of going concern audit report

Going concern is one of essential things for user to make a financial decision. This research aims to explore factors that caused the issuance of going concern audit report by auditor. This research adds two new variables, audit size and audit committee, besides the other factors that cause auditor issue a going concern audit report. This research uses a regression logistic analysis to determine the relationship of each variable （liquidity, solvability, profitability, cash flow, audit firm size and audit committee） to going concern audit report. Different from previous researches, the results of this research show that liquidity, profitability, cash flow, and audit committee are not significant to influence the issuance of audit opinion. Audit size has a more significant relationship to audit opinion, while solvability is the most significant factor.