An Analysis of Trade Patterns and the Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Movements in East Asia

This article investigates the patterns of vertical specialization in trade among China, Japan and Korea, and the effects of real exchange rate fluctuations under a multistage production process. By extending the models of Yi (2003, 2010), we derive two distinct features of vertical specialization and test them using Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) VAR. We find that a positive shock to China’s final good consumption increases the intermediate goods trade between Korea and China, with expanding magnitude over time. In addition, the positive effect of a real exchange rate depreciation on intermediate goods trade is strengthened through the competitiveness-enhancing channel, with this effect being more pronouncing in Korea-China trade than in Korea-Japan trade.     

Dynamic Currency Linkages and Their Determinants: An Empirical Study for East Asian Economic Community Region

In this article, Copula GARCH models have been employed to study the inter-temporal process of currency market co-movements between ASEAN+6 countries (referred to in this study as East Asian Economic Community) and ASEAN+6 currency market index. Empirical results show that the sample countries of the region exhibit varying levels of currency co-movements with the Asian benchmark. Markov regime switching results show that many of the countries which had high dependences with the regional currency index as was found in copula estimations had also overlapping currency market cycles. Using Principal Component Analysis, we find that three statistical factors explain exchange rate co-movements which came out to be trade linkages, economic risk, and currency market openness in our dynamic panel data estimation.     

工程优化设计

加强工程设计方案优化已成为现代工程建设开展的重要工作,是控制工程成本、提高工程造价管理的关键。基于此,论述工程优化设计的影响因素与不足,提出搞好优化设计的几点建议。     

Information congruity in scarcity appeal: A structural equation modeling study of time-limited promotions

Although market scarcity such as time restriction is widely used in retail advertisements, its impact on product message processing and product evaluation is still subject to controversy. In this study, analyses through structural equation modeling indicated that (i) scarcity had no impact on product message processing, (ii) scarcity had a direct impact on product evaluation as a heuristic cue when the value inferred from scarcity was congruous with the worth derived from product message, and (iii) scarcity lost its impact on product evaluation when the value inferred from scarcity was incongruous with the worth derived from product message, and the incongruity prompted scrutiny of product message, resulting in a mediated impact of product message on product evaluation through product message processing. In conclusion, the results supported an information congruity theory of market scarcity.     

An explainable machine learning approach to improve take-off time predictions

Accurate aircraft trajectory predictions are necessary to compute exact traffic demand figures, which are crucial for an efficient and effective air traffic flow and capacity management. At present, the uncertainty of the take-off time is one of the major contributions to the loss of trajectory predictability. In the EUROCONTROL Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre, the predicted take-off time for each individual flight relies on the information received from the Enhanced Traffic Flow Management System. However, aircraft do not always take-off at the times reported by this system due to several factors, which effects and interactions are too complex to be expressed with hard-coded rules. Previous work proposed a machine learning model that, based on historical data, was able to predict the take-off time of individual flights from a set of input features that effectively captures some of these elements. The model demonstrated to reduce by 30% the take-off time prediction errors of the current system one hour before the time that flight is scheduled to depart from the parking position. This paper presents an extension of the model, which overcomes this look-ahead time constraint and allows to improve take-off time predictions as early as the initial flight plan is received. In addition, a subset of the original set of input features has been meticulously selected to facilitate the implementation of the solution in an operational air traffic flow and capacity management system, while minimising the loss of predictive power. Finally, the importance and interactions of the input features are thoroughly analysed with additive feature attribution methods.     

Tourists’ impulse buying behavior at duty-free shops: the moderating effects of time pressure and shopping involvement

This study investigates the consumer behavior of tourists at duty-free shops who experience different limitations on shopping than do consumers at general shopping malls. The target for sampling was outbound tourists who shopped in two hotel duty-free shops in Seoul, Korea. The final analysis used data from 343 respondents and the results revealed (1) the more positive the emotions felt by tourists, the more impulsive buying behavior occurs; (2) time pressure during shopping reinforces negative emotions, resulting in increased affective impulse buying; and (3) increased shopping involvement directly increases cognitive impulse buying.     

TIME‐CONSISTENT AND MARKET‐CONSISTENT EVALUATIONS

We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new market‐consistent evaluation procedure which we call “two‐step market evaluation.” This procedure preserves the structure of standard evaluation techniques and has many other appealing properties. We give a complete axiomatic characterization for two‐step market evaluations. We show further that in a dynamic setting with continuous stock prices every evaluation which is time‐consistent and market‐consistent is a two‐step market evaluation. We also give characterization results and examples in terms of g‐expectations in a Brownian‐Poisson setting.     

Optimal harvesting of a spatial renewable resource

In this paper we investigate the optimal harvesting of a renewable natural resource. While in most standard approaches the resource is located at a single point, we allow the resource to be distributed spatially. Consequently, an agent who exploits the resource has to travel from one location to another. For a fixed planning horizon, we investigate the speed and the path of harvesting chosen by the agent. We show that the agent adjusts this speed so as to visit each location only once, even in the absence of travelling cost. Since the agent does not return to any location for a second harvest, it is optimal to fully deplete the resource upon arrival. A similar type of bang–bang solution results when we drop the assumption of a constant harvesting rate: allowing for a variable harvesting rate, the agent chooses to fully exploit the resource either in the last or in the first travelling period. A society interested in conserving some of the resource thus has to take measures to limit the exploitative behaviour of the agent.     

基于成本优化的制造业生产物流装配线排序问题分析

为了降低制造业的生产成本，提高收益，在分析生产物流配线闲置和超载成本的基础上，采用粒子群算法对其进行优化，并利用模糊自适应改进惯性权值，通过实证研究表明该方法实用，可操作性强，可以有效降低制造业生产物流成本，具有广泛的应用价值。