产业结构与节能减排关系的实证分析——以内蒙古为例

本文利用1985~2008年内蒙古第一、二、三产业增加值及能源消费量进行了协整分析,建立了能源消费的长期均衡模型及向量误差修正模型;并对1990~2008年工业污染物排放量与三次产业增加值进行回归分析,得到了内蒙古能源消费量和工业三废排放量与各产业之间的关系。实证分析发现,在长期第二产业对能源消耗量有较大的正影响,而第三产业则有较大的负影响,因此大力发展第三产业、合理优化第二产业内部结构有利于节能减排目标的实现。     

政企分配关系视角下企业税收负担的国际比较与启示

政府参与企业收入分配的主要形式是税收,企业利润税收负担率是反映这种分配关系的重要指标。近几年来,世界各国的企业利润税收负担率总体呈现下降态势,不同类型国家呈现经济越发达,企业利润税收负担率越低的总体特征,但不同收入水平国家之间差异较大,企业适用的最高边际税率对企业利润负担率的影响显著。从国际比较来看,中国企业利润税收负担率一直偏高,需要理顺政府与企业分配关系,实行实质性减税政策。     

中国碳减排的技术路径及政策建议——基于经典估计贝叶斯平均(BACE)法的实证研究

在低碳经济已经成为时代主题的背景下,寻求低碳化发展路径,保持经济持续增长的同时实现碳减目标已成为当前的研究热点。由于经济系统的开放性及碳排放动力机制的复杂性,参数的选取会引致研究结果的不同。在充分考虑后验概率的基础上,基于1995-2009年的面板数据和扩展后的STRIPAT模型,运用经典估计贝叶斯平均(BACE)法,对中国碳排放强度的影响因素进行了实证分析,研究结果表明:能源强度、一次能源结构、经济发展规模和城市化发展水平等四个因素对其有较强并且稳健的影响力;若非采取更为有效的措施,中国将无法如期实现碳减目标。     

Species preservation versus development: An experimental investigation under uncertainty

The safe minimum standard (SMS) is a decision rule to preserve renewable resources, unless the social costs of doing so are intolerable. While unpersuasive to many, support for the SMS has been advocated by some economists for settings involving irreversibility and a high degree of uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to explore decision-making involving species preservation versus development within an experimental laboratory setting, and involving uncertainty. The experimental design implements a number of prior game-theoretic investigations of the SMS (Bishop, 1978; Ready and Bishop, 1991; Palmini, 1999), involving insurance, and lottery or combined games against nature. The choices are between species preservation, which possibly provides a cure for a disease, or developing habitat, leading to irreversible depletion. Econometric results from a random parameters logit model, using responses from 117 participants (across both U.S. and Mexican university student samples) and 9 treatment choices, indicate that support for the SMS varies across the type of game, the imposed maximum regret condition concerning the relative magnitude of the costs of disease and net benefits of development, a constructed measure of respondents' risk aversion, and other factors. There is also strong evidence of unobservable heterogeneous preferences for preservation within our sample.     

Testing EU fiscal surveillance: how sensitive is it to variations in output gap estimates?

Real‐time estimates of potential output are used for the calculation of the cyclically adjusted budget balance, one of the main indicators in the assessment of the fiscal performance of EU member states. The estimation of potential output involves a decomposition of actual output into a cyclical and a structural component based on arbitrary assumptions about the statistical properties of the two unobserved components. With a very high degree of smoothing, variations in GDP are mostly taken to be temporary, as are the ensuing changes in the budget deficit. Conversely, with a low degree of smoothing, variations in GDP are mostly taken to be permanent, leading to different policy conclusions. Our paper examines whether and how different potential output estimates would have supported different decisions in the EU budgetary surveillance in terms of both timing and substance. The results show that only a very high degree of smoothing of potential output would significantly reduce the reliability of the surveillance indicators. We conclude that a higher degree of smoothing compared with current practice would not be harmful for EU fiscal surveillance, while it could contribute to more cautious policies by signalling larger and longer periods of economic ‘good times’.     

国内外农村最低生活保障制度变迁及其启示

我国农村社会救助政策和制度及其变迁,特别是对农村最低生活保障制度的探索反映出社会理念的进步和制度水平的提高。针对国外农村最低生活保障制度的发展,选择了五个国家的情况进行了分析。通过对国内外农村最低生活保障制度变迁的分析,我们可以得到以下几点启示：应明确农村最低生活保障制度的定位、农村低保应该处理好与自立脱贫之间的关系、加强政府与民间的合作、加强农村最低生活保障的立法、设立合理的农村低保基准线。     

节能减排的进化博弈分析

节能减排过程中主体的策略选择行为非常重要,通过运用进化博弈理论建立企业群体之间、企业群体与监察部门之间的博弈模型以及它们对应的复制动态方程,并对动态方程进行分析与讨论,得到了博弈模型中各博弈方的进化稳定策略,在此基础上,提出了合理性建议.     

从“生废”走向“消废”——生态文明建设中城市垃圾处理的路径选择

人类为了生存和发展,始终离不开物质资料的生产和消费。但从生态文明视角来看,无论是生产还是消费,人类都无法摆脱生废问题,而生产和消费带来的与日俱增的垃圾围城正日益成为困扰城市生态文明建设的重大问题之一。如何从生废走向消废是城市生态文明建设的一个重要内容。在分析当前我国城市垃圾处理存在困境的同时,借鉴德国垃圾处理的成功经验,指出垃圾处理的减量化、无害化和资源化将成为垃圾处理的一种必然趋势;垃圾要分类,资源要回收势在必行,为促进城市的生态文明建设,我国城市垃圾处理的路径选择在具体的制度安排上应体现为源头减量化、处理无害化和利用资源化。     

后《京都议定书》时代国际碳减排利益博弈机制分析

根据<京都议定书>参与国和缔约国的不同政治经济状况将<京都议定书>的成员国分为欧盟、美国、中国和其他国家等四类.利用博弈论对<京都议定书>之后各利益集团之间的争斗进行分析.指出后<京都议定书>时代国际碳减排利益分配不均是导致减排联盟不稳定的主要因素,进而从福利经济学角度讨论应将应对气候变化的"共同但有区别的责任"原则扩展为"界定以排放权为基础的公平的碳减排合作框架"和"界定以最终消费为基础的公平的碳减排分担框架".     

基于低碳物流的协同配送

协同配送通过企业间的资源共享和优势互补能有效提高资源利用率,降低污染。文中在对实施协同配送时所面对的主要问题进行分析的基础上,以节能减排为目的,针对协同配送低碳化提出了几点建议,对推动低碳物流的发展具有一定意义。