Smooth Transition ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing

In this paper, we suggest an extension of the ARCH model, the smooth-transition autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (STARCH) model. STARCH models endogenously allow for time-varying shifts in the parameters of the conditional variance equation. The most general form of the model that we consider is a double smooth-transition model, the STAR-STARCH model, which permits not only the conditional variance, but also the mean, to be a function of a smooth-transition term. The threshold ARCH model, the Markov-ARCH model and the standard ARCH model are special cases of our STARCH model. We also develop Lagrange multiplier tests of the hypothesis that the smooth-transition term in the conditional variance is zero. We apply our STARCH model to excess Treasury bill returns. We find some evidence of a smooth transition in excess returns, but in contrast to previous studies, we find almost no evidence of volatility persistence once we allow for smooth transitions in the conditional variance. Thus, the apparent persistence in the conditional variance reported by many researchers could be a mere statistical artifact. We conduct in-sample tests comparing STARCH models to nested competitors; these suggest that STARCH models hold promise for improved predictions. Finally, we describe further extensions of the STARCH model and suggest issues in finance to which they might profitably be applied.     

Value Relevance of Environmental Provisions Pre‐ and Post‐IFRS

The purpose of this paper is to compare the value relevance of environmental provisions as recorded under Canadian/U.S. GAAP and IFRS accounting frameworks with consideration of the impact of voluntarily issuing stand‐alone sustainability reports. The value relevance of environmental provisions is tested using a modified Ohlson (1995) model. We exploit IFRS reconciliations as a quasi‐experimental setting to conduct this comparison. Results indicate that environmental provisions recorded under either framework only act as liabilities for oil and gas firms that release stand‐alone sustainability reports. For other firms in the oil and gas industry, and the mining industry, the liability nature of these provisions appears to be discounted by the market. Furthermore, for firms in the oil and gas industry that do not have stand‐alone CSR reports, provisions appear to be interpreted by the market as a costly signal about future growth. Instead of downwardly affecting market values, this information is associated with higher market values. In terms of the transition to IFRS, we find that, while the IFRS provisions are significantly higher than under former GAAP, they do not improve value relevance for investors. Accounting standard setters should consider examining the changes in the current standards from the original Canadian environmental provision reporting requirements under Capital Assets section 3060.39, as it was rightfully shown to be a relevant proxy for unbooked liabilities (Li and McConomy, 1999; Bewley, 2005) rather than earnings expectancy. The study builds upon prior research to examine the value of accounting standards that have gone through significant changes.     

基于DPSIR-TOPSIS的城市绿色转型评价及实证——以太原市为例

基于DPSIR模型,构建了包括驱动力、压力、状态、影响和响应5个方面的城市绿色转型评价指标体系,并将熵权法与TOPSIS法相结合确定指标权重。基于该评价指标系统,对2006—2014年太原市的绿色转型状况进行了评价与分析。结果表明:虽然太原市的绿色转型水平逐渐提高,但是整体效果处于一般水平,转型状况不太理想。     

Capital flows and growth dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe

This article assesses the importance of capital flows as measured by the current account balance for the growth dynamics of the EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe. Economic growth in these countries was on average relatively high before the global financial crisis but markedly lower after the crisis. Panel data econometrics using annual data for 1997–2015 point to the contemporaneous current account balance having a sizeable negative effect on annual GDP growth. Estimations using many control variables and instrumental variables suggest that the negative effect is mainly demand driven. Counterfactual simulations show that growth rates in all CEE countries would have been lower in the absence of capital flows, and this applies particularly to the countries with the most disadvantageous starting points.     

经济转型条件下的会计监管模式

目前，我国正处在经济转型过程当中，不完全改革引起了时而出现的宏观经济不稳定、就业得不到保证、越来越大的竞争压力、社会不公平的增加、难以削减的贫困以及严重的腐败问题，都与转型期的特点密切相关。而现代企业制度产生的双元控制主体的利益不一致、信息不对称，造成了现实中会计信息严重失真，影响了资本市场的有效运行。因此，引入以“政府为主导的会计监管模式”，可从源头上防范和治理腐败，保障现代企业制度的顺利实施，提高会计信息质量，维护市场经济秩序。     

粮食重金属污染对粮食安全、人体健康的影响

介绍了重金属污染的起源、历史、后果和现状。首先叙述了北半球亚欧和北美地区重金属污染研究形势,接着论述了中国粮食重金属污染的严重程度。Cd、Hg、Pb、As、Cu和Zn对人体健康的影响作了概述,最后,对今后中国粮食安全研究提出了建议。     

How Does Trade Openness Affect Regional Demographic Transitions? Evidence from China's Provincial Panel Data

This paper investigates the effect of trade openness and other variables on the demographic transition in China using the instrumental variables regression method based on provincial panel data for the period between 1981 and 2013. The results indicate that trade openness is one of the determinants of China's demographic transition and has two distinct effects: (i) an income effect that accelerated the demographic transition by increasing per capita income; and (ii) a human capital effect that suppressed the demographic transition by reducing human capital accumulation. The effects of trade on demographic transition vary across different regions. This study identifies the important determinants of demographic transition in China's regions, and has rich policy implications for demographic transition and the upgrading of trade structure.     

支持资源枯竭型城市转型的财政政策探讨

随着主体资源的不断减少,资源枯竭型城市必然面临转型的路径选择。在转型的过程中资源枯竭型城市受到资源匮乏、产业结构单一、生态环境恶化、社会矛盾突出等问题的困扰,需要用产业政策、财税政策、环境保护政策、社会保障政策等构建公共政策支持系统,破解城市在转型中的困境,财政政策是其中重要的因素之一。     

危机后期经济增长方式转变、指导思想与实践路径——必须依据马克思主义理论为指导克服危机

经济增长理论是社会经济增长的一种理论反映,源于斯密和李嘉图为代表的古典经济学,是二战后在发达国家广泛流行的经济理论。但是发达国家经济学家自身存在的认识论缺陷使其不可能科学完整的建立经济增长理论及模型,因此必须遵循马克思的方法论从理论为实际的反映入手建立科学模型,并指导中国经济结构以及产业结构的调整,特别是经济增长方式的转变实践中经济结构及产业结构的优化升级。     

Marketing Dynamics and Management Excellence: The Sources of Successful Internationalization of a Food Processing Company from a Transition Economy (Case: MASPEX—Poland)

The article presents a case story of the fall and rise of the food industry in Poland's transition economy, illustrated with the example of one of its most successful companies. The author distinguishes 3 stages of the economic transition of Poland: Stage 1, in which the Polish food processing industry collapsed, faced with fierce foreign competition after the implementation of a strategy of liberalization and privatization; Stage 2 (since the late 1990s), when young, dynamic, and relatively well-educated Polish entrepreneurs and managers not only started to regain the local market but also began international expansion, intensifying exports, primarily to EU markets; Stage 3, during which the internationalization took the form of foreign direct investment outward into the former neighboring socialist/communist countries.

The MASPEX Group provides an excellent example of successful revival and expansion achieved thanks to the company's dynamic marketing strategy, executed by a young, dynamic, and highly professional management team.