The Application of Sensitivity Analysis on Comprehensive Transportation Evaluation

Comprehensive transportation evaluation objects using multi-objective decision method is a process of choosing the best one from a few objects through calculating, analyzing, and comparing the index system. The result may be different because of the difference of the index weight and index value. Therefore, sensitivity analysis should be one of the necessary parts of the decision-making. It is desired to give the index with higher sensitivity and its varying scope to control the index strictly during the execution process. This paper derives transfer index weight, which changes the rank evaluation order of the projects. Meanwhile, a simple, effective and practical method based on sensitivity district and sensitivity matrix is proposed for the sensitivity analysis of decision-making. As an example, the index sensitivity in decision-making of some provinces comprehensive transportation objects, and their influence on the final decision are discussed.     

城市群建设中交通网络体系整合与优化的研究——以湖南“3＋5”城市群为例

交通网络体系的发展和完善是城市群建设的先决条件和重要手段。在归纳总结交通网络体系对城市群建设的影响机理作用及其促进城市群发展的路径基础上,结合湖南“3＋5”城市群的发展实际,指出在城市群建设中应以科学发展观为指导,适度超前发展并完善交通网络体系,提高其综合服务能力等措施以满足城市群建设对交通基础网络的需求。     

交通运输投资宏观经济效应分析——基于乘数模型的应用

文章基于乘数理论及投资乘数模型对交通运输投资宏观经济效应进行分析,设置了边际交通消费倾向,并推导出交通最终消费需求模型;运用交通消费倾向,证明了交通运输发展对推动产业结构优化的作用和缩小地区差距的功能。     

The hidden value of air transportation infrastructure

Air transportation is a key strategic asset in that it provides access to markets and thereby enables the economic development of nations. Thus, in order to maintain their competitiveness in a global economy, countries must invest in air transportation infrastructure to ensure their ability to meet current and future demand for aviation services. The objective of this paper is to develop and illustrate a methodology for evaluating the strategic value of air transportation infrastructure, in particular the benefits associated with the ability to react quickly to changes in the market. The hypothesis is that by recognizing and taking advantage of this strategic value, it may be possible to design better policies for aviation infrastructure delivery.The methodology developed here uses system dynamics to model different strategies for infrastructure delivery. These strategies are defined by three variables: the amount of capacity increase, the time to deliver the capacity and the congestion threshold that triggers the need for capacity delivery. Monte Carlo simulation is used to take into account multiple sources of uncertainty. The model shows that a strategy of capacity delivery based on small increments and short response times can yield more benefits than strategies that consider large capacity increases and long response times. Furthermore, in the specific airport example considered here, it was found that a congestion threshold of 75% should be the trigger for capacity enlargements if strategies based on small capacity increments and 1 or 5 years to increase capacity are considered. The lesson for decision-makers is that congestion delays must be addressed with foresight.     

论铁路货运向现代物流转变

随着我国高铁的快速建设,以及铁路货运机制的不断改革,铁路货运发展现代物流存在非常好的机遇。铁路运输为了提高市场份额,适应市场需求,应采取众多改革方针。通过运用SWOT方法,对我国铁路货运发展现代物流进行了分析,指出了其存在的优势、劣势、机遇与威胁,并提出铁路货运在发挥自身优势、优化货运组织的同时,要充分利用路网资源,进一步加强铁路货运改革,优化两端运输组织,完善“门到门”物流运输,积极拓展铁路货运增值业务,大力发展协同运输,为铁路货运发展现代物流提供有力保证。     

新国际贸易与经济地理理论及其发展——2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主的理论贡献

2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主克鲁格曼将规模经济、产品差异与运输成本引入一般均衡分析模型,其开创性的研究使贸易理论和经济地理这两个曾经是相互独立的经济学分支融合到一起,成为新贸易理论发展的先导;作为创始人,他还将新经济地理学融入了主流经济学。此外,克鲁格曼还与几位合作者打通了新经济地理学与城市地区经济学传统研究之间的通道,并对国际货币经济学做出了重要贡献。     

地理因素、制度供给与区域经济差异

虽然导致国内区域之间经济发展差距拉大的原因多种多样,但是,如果进行分类研究,则不难发现,地理因素(如海拔、水资源适宜度、距离核心经济区的远近等)在区域经济增长中起基础性和长期性的作用,而制度供给(如对外开放的次序、经济区的布局等)则在区域经济增长中起关键性的作用。因此,中西部和东部地区应结合区位条件尽快制定对外开放、经济区划分进程表,并通过产业聚集、城市群建设、市场经济体制的建立和交通基础设施的建设等,促进区域经济发展。     

中国道路运输业营运效率动态分析——基于Malmquist生产力指数

本文运用基于非参数DEA的Malmquist生产力指数,对中国道路运输业在2000年至2004年期间的营运效率进行了分析和评价。研究结果显示,除了在2003年因受“非典”疫情的影响导致其营运效率明显下降之外,中国道路运输业在其他年份营运效率均表现为不同程度的提高,这表明中国道路运输业的生产力总体上呈现出改善的态势;然而,此期间中国道路运输业年均营运效率在降低,且几乎完全是由技术进步水平的降低所导致的,分析结论表明道路运输业的技术进步和营运效率的增长机制存在一定程度的不稳定性。     

探讨交通运输机械针对性维修策略与应用

根据当前我国交通运输机械针对性维修的整体发展状况,分析了我国交通运输机械维修的发展方向,从而进一步探讨了现代交通运输机械维修的策略和具体技术应用所遇到的挑战及总体发展趋势,并针对具体维修策略,提出一些关于交通运输机械针对性维修方面的具体措施和发展思路。     

区域城镇化空间格局优化路径与实践——以吉林省为实证

以吉林省为研究区域,运用重心分析模型和地理统计法,在综合分析城镇化空间格局时空演变特征及问题的基础上,将情景分析法运用到城镇化空间格局优化中,从理论和实践两个维度研究了区域城镇化空间格局优化问题。结果显示:以"区域城镇化空间格局优化"为核心目标,以情景分析法为基础,构建了"时空演变特征→存在问题总结→情景优化模拟→发展战略选择"的区域城镇化空间格局优化逻辑路径,并成功运用到吉林省城镇化空间格局优化实践中。通过情景构建、分析与评价,最终提出"强化中部、发展组团、构筑支点、区域联动"的吉林省空间发展战略和区域城镇化发展导向,构建"一群三团四轴"的城镇化空间发展格局,即以中部城市群为核心,以图们江区域城镇组团、通白城镇组团和西部白城城镇组团为支撑的城镇化主体发展形态,以哈大轴、图乌轴、东部沿边轴及南部门户轴为发展主轴的区域联动发展轴带格局。