The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run

Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J‐curve for three transitional central European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland – in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J‐curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export‐to‐import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one.     

Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach

Financial risk model evaluation or backtesting is a key partof the internal model's approach to market risk management aslaid out by the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision. However,existing backtesting methods have relatively low power in realisticsmall sample settings. Our contribution is the exploration ofnew tools for backtesting based on the duration of days betweenthe violations of the Value-at-Risk. Our Monte Carlo resultsshow that in realistic situations, the new duration-based testshave considerably better power properties than the previouslysuggested tests.     

Do Germans Save to Leave an Estate? An Examination of the Bequest Motive

I investigate whether a bequest motive for savings influences the post-retirement wealth trajectories of German households. Two measures of the bequest motive are studied: the existence of children as the main group of potential heirs and the respondents' declared intention to bequeath. While having children has no significant impact on households' wealth trajectories, stated bequest intentions are associated with considerable heterogeneity in wealth holdings. The main conclusion from this study is that both the pure life-cycle model and the life-cycle model with bequest motives provide a valid basis for a theory of household wealth accumulation once the heterogeneity of preferences is acknowledged.
JEL classification : D 91; J 14     

对加拿大货币需求的数量分析

在特定的经济条件下，全社会货币需求量以及这个量的变动规律，是一国政府制定并执行货币政策和财政政策时所要考虑的重要参数。战后以来，西方国家政府一般是通过货币政策和财政政策的执行，最终影响产出量和就业水平。分析影响货币需求变动的因素及其变量之间的数量关系，是正确地预测货币需求变动的关键。加拿大的货币需求与其相关的经济因素之间的关系；加拿大货币供求与经济增长之间的关系。     

Pricing practices and firms' market power in international cellular markets, an empirical study

Previous studies on international marketing have typically asked the question: “how is the demand characterized across countries?” Such analysis is then used to provide guidelines for firms to enter new markets and/or to allocate marketing resources across countries. To provide such normative guidelines, however, one also needs to analyze the supply-side of the problem, i.e., ask: “what is the likely market power that firms will be able to command in different countries?” Building on the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) framework, recent research in marketing provides marketers with a variety of models to explore competitive interactions among firms in the context of a single market. The goal of this paper is to extend this literature to a multimarket/multinational context to help international marketers assess the likely market power they face when entering new countries. We illustrate the proposed method on the mobile telecommunications industry, using price and quantity data from 10 countries around the world, estimating firms' market power as a function of a number of country characteristics.The results indicate that, while the simple presence of competition diminishes firms' market power, it does not lead to perfect competition. Interestingly, a higher number of competitors in a country does not seem to have significant incremental effect on market power. In contrast, the country's commitment to a severe antitrust policy has a significant negative effect, while the monopolist's lead-time before competition is allowed has a significant positive effect on market power. These findings, together with a change in price elasticities as a result of competition, suggest that market power in different countries may originate from two sources: (i) collusive pricing among cellular operators and (ii) consumers' switching costs across service providers. For international marketers, the findings imply that the attractiveness of wealthier countries (with usually faster diffusion rates and larger market potential) may be mitigated by higher levels of competition (as a result of developed antitrust regulation and more consumer exposure to competitive marketing practices). From a policy point of view, it suggests that (in contrast to the conventional wisdom) simple deregulation may not be enough to reduce prices to competitive levels. In addition, a severe antitrust policy is crucial to achieve this goal.     

THE SQUARED ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK MARKET

We study a complete market containing J assets, each asset contributing to the production of a single commodity at a rate that is a solution to the squared Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (Cox-Ingersoll-Ross) SDE. The assets are owned by K agents with CRRA utility functions, who follow feasible consumption/investment regimes so as to maximize their expected time-additive utility from consumption. We compute the equilibrium for this economy and determine the state-price density process from market clearing. Reducing to a single (representative) agent, and exploiting the relation between the squared-OU and squared-Bessel SDEs, we obtain closed-form expressions for the values of bonds, assets, and options on the total asset value. Typical model parameters are estimated by fitting bond price data, and we use these parameters to price the assets and options numerically. Implications for the total asset price itself as a diffusion are discussed. We also estimate implied volatility surfaces for options and bond yields.     

Urban Influence on Costs of Production in the Corn Belt

This article determines the relative technical efficiency of rural- and urban-influenced crop/livestock enterprises in the Corn Belt. Farmers in urban-influenced locations are less technically efficient than farmers in rural locations. During 1998–2000, stochastic production frontier procedures indicate that a 10% increase in urban influence leads to a close to 4% decrease in technical efficiency. The most successful urban-influenced farms have controlled costs as effectively as rural farms. They have tended to de-emphasize that nondairy livestock activities—particularly beef and hogs—do not rely extensively on off-farm income, and have relatively large, less residential/lifestyle operations compared to less successful urban-influenced farmers. However, our statistical analysis clearly bears out the refrain in popular literature that urban proximity raises the cost for, and decreases the viability of, traditional farms.     

Estimation of Agricultural Production Functfons on a World-Wide Basis

Agricultural production is becoming increasingly capital and research intensive. Hayami and Ruttan, along with others, have developed and applied the metaproduction functional approach to the examination of this phenomenon on a worldwide basis. Limitations to the approach derive from a restrictive functional form chosen for estimation, and from a restrictive specification of agricultural capital and land. This study addresses those difficulties by use of the flexible translog functional form for estimation and by specifying an overall agricultural capital index and a land measure incorporating differences in the quality of land (agricultural natural resource) endowments. Estimation results indicate that agricultural comparative advantage in production is likely shifting to developed countries relative to LDC's due to capital constraints in the latter. Also agricultural potential (i.e., land endowments) do not serve to differentiate nations on the basis of agricultural production. Investment in agriculture, including land improvement, is key to the determination of comparative advantage. La production agricole fait appelle de plus en plus a beaucoup de re-cherches et de capitaux. Hayami et Ruttan, avec d'autres, ont developpe et appliqué l'approche fonctionnelle métaproduction pour examiner ce phénomena à l‘échelle du monde. Les limitations de cette approache provienneent de la forme fonctionnelle restrictive choisie pour l'estimation, et de la spécification restrictive de capitaux et terres agricoles. Cette étude traite ces difficultés en utilisant la formule “translog’ fonctionnelle adaptable pour l'estimation et en spécificant un indice du capital agricole global et une mesure de terre qui incorpore les différences du qualité des terres agricoles (ressources agricoles naturelles). Tous les résultats estimatifs indiquent que l'avantage comparatif agricole de production s'incline vers les pays développés parraport aux PMD dû aux constraintes de capitaux dans ces derniers. Aussi la capacité agricole (c'est à dire la richesse des sols) ne sert pas à différencier les nations sur le plan de production agricole. L'investissement dans l'agriculte, notamment l'amélioration de terre, est la cief pour déterminer l'avantage comparatif.     

汇率波动模型与人民币汇率调整新趋势

文章对四种汇率波动模型进行简要介绍与说明,指出中国渐进式的改革和开放决定了入世后人民币汇率的制度调整也应是渐进式的,现阶段人民币汇率制度的选择应实行目标区汇率制。     

房地产股权投资信托当事人的利益均衡研究

简要介绍了房地产信托,对房地产股权投资型信托的委托人、受托人利受益人三方当事人的利益均衡进行分析讨论,建立了相应的数学模型,并通过将持股比例引入模型,使三方构成一个有机的整体,然后对模型进行比较详尽的分析研究,找出影响最优持股比例的因素并分析,得出一些有意义的结论。