Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change

Today many companies in many industries put a lot of efforts into monitoring and investigating emerging drivers of change in their business environment, particularly in relation to new technologies and events in the social, economic, political and ecological landscapes which surround their industry. So far scholars in the literature on foresight and future studies focused on the techniques and practices for analysing the “state” uncertainty about the likely path of evolution of emerging drivers of change. Anyway, less attention was devoted to the “effect” uncertainty about the impact of drivers of change on the competitive position of the firm and to the “response” uncertainty about how to take advantage of these drivers. These are the main issues we take into account, through a field research on firms that, notwithstanding they were able to properly assess the likely evolution (state uncertainty) of relevant drivers of change in their industry, either were successful or dramatically failed in handling the effect and response uncertainty of these drivers. Moreover, we carried out multiple case studies of some large companies that have established an organizational unit dedicated to strategic foresight. Overall, the results of our research may contribute to improve the effectiveness of strategic foresight and to increase its value added to the planning process of corporate firms, while providing helpful insight to public organizations that promote foresight exercises for enhancing the competitiveness of local firms.     

SNC公司战略制定研究

战略制定是企业战略管理中的一个重要环节,是企业对未来发展方向和目标的选择。通过运用PEST分析、迈克尔·波特五力分析模型、SWOT分析、平衡记分卡(BSC)等战略工具,对SNC公司战略制定的全过程进行研究,最终确定SNC公司2012年度的发展战略。     

虚拟企业战略制定面临的困境与对策

首先探讨了虚拟企业战略的作用及战略制定的基本要求,其次从三个方面分析了当前虚拟企业战略制定所面临的困境,最后提出了解决虚拟企业战略制定问题的三个对策。对现实工作具有一定的理论指导意义。     

Intensity-based framework and penalty formulation of optimal stopping problems

Financial derivatives commonly contain premature termination clauses, which are embedded rights held by the holder or writer. Well known examples of these stopping rights include the early exercise right in American options, the callable right in callable securities and the prepayment right in mortgage loans. In this paper, we show how to model the mortgagor's prepayment in mortgage loans and the issuer's call in the American warrant as an event risk using the intensity based approach, where the propensity of prepayment or calling is modeled by the intensity of a Poisson process. We illustrate that the corresponding pricing formulation resembles the penalty approximation approach commonly used in the solution of the linear complementarity formulation of an optimal stopping problem. We obtain several theoretical results on the prepayment strategies of mortgage loans and calling policies of American warrants. We also propose robust second order accurate numerical schemes for solving the penalty formulation of an optimal stopping problem.     

反洗钱的现状与对策研究

作为一种犯罪活动，洗钱早就引起了世界的忧虑。本文对洗钱的定义、特点、手段、危害以及反洗钱的国际经验进行论述，并对我国反洗钱所面临的问题及对策进行探讨。     

公共危机视角下我国政策主体问题研究

现代社会是一个高危社会,公共政策在危机管理中发挥着不可替代的作用。公共危机所具有的特性不仅增加了危机政策制定的难度．也对公共危机政策主体提出了更高的要求。目前我国危机政策主体还存在危机决策者的综合能力不高、政策研究组织的作用不强、民众有效参与及意见反馈机制缺失、大众传媒的作用不到位等较多不足．需要从提高危机决策者的素质、发展“外脑”提高政策质量、吸引民众、大众传媒参与危机政策制定过程等方面加以完善。     

Dynamic Optimization of Long-Term Growth Rate for a Portfolio with Transaction Costs and Logarithmic Utility

We study the optimal investment policy for an investor who has available one bank account and n risky assets modeled by log-normal diffusions. The objective is to maximize the long-run average growth of wealth for a logarithmic utility function in the presence of proportional transaction costs. This problem is formulated as an ergodic singular stochastic control problem and interpreted as the limit of a discounted control problem for vanishing discount factor. The variational inequalities for the discounted control problem and the limiting ergodic problem are established in the viscosity sense. The ergodic variational inequality is solved by using a numerical algorithm based on policy iterations and multigrid methods. A numerical example is displayed for two risky assets.