存货动态质押融资的司法困境与审判路径——基于司法裁判的实证分析

存货动态质押作为物流金融创新背景下出现的担保类型,已经成为当前我国供应链金融的核心模式之一。在这种融资模式下,企业既能获得融资,又能保障正常经营,可有效帮助中小企业盘活存货和拓宽融资渠道。不过,由于存货动态质押交易构造复杂,区分不同运作模式,又涉及金融借贷、动产质押、保管、监管等多重法律关系,导致相关民事纠纷快速增长,且司法判决态度不一。为尽量反映存货动态质押司法实践全貌,以2012—2020年我国涉及存货动态质押的553份民事裁判文书为分析对象,从案件的数量变化、地域分布、运作模式、制度优势等多个维度入手,对此类担保司法适用的现状进行梳理。研究发现,审判实践中面临的司法困境主要与设立效力、监管人义务和责任有关,如非转移出库模式的存货动态质押法律效力判定不一、物流企业义务与责任模糊不清等。为消解存货动态质押司法困境,需要以《中华人民共和国民法典》(简称《民法典》)及其司法解释思路为指引,正确认识存货动态质押中的交付问题,进一步肯认公同占有作为交付新类型的效力。此外,还要明确监管人作为委托人和保管人的双重身份,而其责任的承担应分别依照违反质物审查义务、监管义务、保管义务予以类型化,并结合致损原因、责任形态和顺位具体判定。     

Market inefficiencies surrounding energy announcements

We use sequential energy inventory announcements to shed new light on the informational efficiency of financial markets. Our findings provide clear evidence of inefficiency in crude oil futures and stock markets. This inefficiency can be exploited by sophisticated traders. We examine the effect of market liquidity on the efficient incorporation of information in this setting. We also construct a predictor that can predict inventory surprises and preannouncement returns in-sample and out-of-sample. Finally, we develop a combination forecast that can be used as a proxy for market expectations of oil inventory announcements.     

Policy uncertainty and inventory behavior: Evidence from the US manufacturing sector

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on asymmetric inventory investment (i.e., inventory stickiness or sticky inventory management). Using a sample of 74,912 US firm-year observations over the 1984–2021 period, we observe a significantly negative relationship between EPU and asymmetric inventory investment. Our cross-sectional analyses reveal that managers' pessimistic expectations regarding future demand and higher cost of funding and maintaining capacity are the channels through which EPU affects asymmetric inventory behavior. Moreover, this negative impact is more pronounced for firms that face longer-duration uncertainty, rely heavily on government purchases, and have higher firm-specific political risk. Lastly, we find that reducing inventory stickiness leads to improved firm performance during periods of increasing policy uncertainty.     

核电站备件库存金额预测方法

设计了一种对入库金额和领用金额进行预测的方法,基于核电站的历史入库数据、维修领用数据,通过入库金额和领用金额对库存金额进行预测,并以某核电站为例进行仿真验证,当预测时长为12个月时,入库金额预测的平均相对误差为7.77%,领用金额预测的平均相对误差为7.83%,库存金额预测的平均相对误差为3.59%,基本满足核电备件管理中对库存金额预测精度的要求。     

Managing returnable transport items in a vendor managed inventory system

This paper addresses a closed-loop inventory routing problem with demand uncertainty, which manages the delivery operations to customers and pick-up operations of empty returnable transport items (RTIs) from customers. The problem involves decisions regarding forward and backward vehicle routes, the delivery and collection quantities, the amount of production in terms of the number of filled RTIs, and the number of RTIs produced/ bought by the vendor during the defined planning horizon. The problem considers the holding costs, fixed cost of operating vehicles, fuel consumption cost, producing/buying costs, cleaning costs of RTIs, and loading and unloading costs. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer linear programming model and propose a Relax and Fix based solution approach to solve large instances. We conduct extensive analyses on a case study derived from a fruit and vegetable distribution network and several hypothetical instances. Our analyses investigate the effects of several problem parameter changes (i.e., average collection rate, customer service level, cost of buying crate and handling cost) on the total logistics cost. Additional numerical analyses are performed to demonstrate the usage of the model for evaluating the cost of being more green and environmental-friendly. Moreover, experiments on relatively large-scaled problems allow us to demonstrate the potential benefits of the proposed heuristic     

供应链管理在生产制造业中的应用实施研究

以选择一家卷烟用纸生产制造业企业为例,研究其从供应商分类与选择、供应商管理、原材料计划、原材料采购、进货检验、存货到发货的整个供应链管理模式。虽然这家企业规模较小,但由于该行业要求具有快捷反应的供应链,所以该企业的各环节可能穿插一些比较创新的管理手段,保证了管理的高效与快速反应。     

When the going gets tough,do the tough go shopping?

This study examines the impacts of consumer confidence on stockpiling behavior and, subsequently, retail inventory management. We show how stockpiling behavior evolved during the “Great Recession” of 2008–2009 as consumer confidence waned and demonstrate the impact of this development on inventory management. Drawing on the two-segment household inventory theory consisting of nonstockpiling and stockpiling segments, we use a panel dataset (2005–2015) to calibrate household inventory holdings. This dataset then serves as input for a retailer-level case study. Our empirical analysis reveals significant impacts from changing stockpiling behavior. When consumer confidence is low, both stockpiling and nonstockpiling segments respond by reducing weekly consumption rates; however, the stockpiling segment also significantly lengthens the time between shopping trips, and ultimately increases the duration of inventory holdings. These changes to consumption and stockpiling add complexity to inventory planning, requiring retailers to carefully adjust inventory levels to maintain service levels.     

Reference-dependent preferences and probability judgments

This paper provides empirical evidence that probability judgments help explain a reference-dependent preference. It explains using the data for Tokyo Taxi drivers, which includes the respondents about psychological questions. Probability judgments based on a dual process to cognition means judgments and calculations of the probability when they determine something under uncertainty. It weakens the assumption that people have the same rationality. We permit the difference between cognition to rationality and probability judgments. These probability judgments relate to reference points and drivers' personalities and intuition, which influence decision-making and can explain several reference dependences. The difference of cognition to rationality also determines their reference dependence type. It uses Rational Experienced Inventory as the index of cognition to rationality. Frequentist type has different target variables with case type, subjective type, and fortune type. Each probability judgment type has each target as the reference point. Probability judgment types explain the type of cognition to rationality. This explains the endogeneity of reference dependence.     

Detecting overproduction: Evidence from inventory write-down

We use inventory write-downs to differentiate opportunistic and non-opportunistic overproduction measures. We posit that non-opportunistic overproduction is positively associated with future write-downs because overproduction generally leads to excess inventory, while opportunistic overproduction (to inflate earnings) is negatively associated with write-downs because write-downs decrease earnings. We find that change-based proxies (deviations from past behaviour) are positively associated with the likelihood of future write-downs, whereas residual-based proxies (deviations from industry norms) are negatively associated with this likelihood, suggesting that the former (latter) primarily capture non-opportunistic (opportunistic) overproduction. Our study highlights the importance of using appropriate overproduction measures for each research setting.