关于对利率市场化的再认识

利率市场化是我国目前正在积极推进的一项重要金融改革工作。本文对利率市场化的基础、要求和利率传导机制进行了总结,提出了利率市场化风险识别的分析点,考察了目前商业银行理财产品对利率市场化的探索,在此基础上,提出完善利率市场化改革的措施建议。     

The organic industry in Australia: Current and future trends

Accurate information is critical for investment, policy alignment and to support agricultural development. In Australia information relating to the size, growth, current and future value of the organic sector has been incoherent and, in some cases, contradictory. This study seeks to address this gap by synthesising industry and government data with the results of an online quantitative survey as well as a series of in-depth interviews to capture the value added component of the organic industry in Australia. By sub-dividing the total organic industry into thirteen categories which makes for meaningful analysis and interpretation, we aimed to estimate the compound average growth rate, the current value added and future trends in the Australian organic industry. This has resulted in some interesting findings, hence the methodology could potentially serve as a benchmark for the reporting of organic food growth globally. The findings also have important implications for various stakeholders including, growers of organic products, investors, land use policy makers and industry operators.     

人民币汇率预测及方法选择——基于ARIMA与GARCH模型

自2005年7月人民币汇率改革以来,人民币持续升值,已影响到经济生活的各个方面,正确分析与预测汇价及其波动对各经济主体金融政策与投融资决策的制定有着十分重要的意义。本文选取国内外学者较为认同的ARIMA和GARCH模型对人民币美元汇率建模,并对其预测误差进行分析,结果表明在对人民币兑美元中间价的预测中,GARCH模型预测相对ARIMA模型更优。     

人民币汇率波动对国际企业价值影响实证研究

双对数计量经济模型可以较为准确地描述人民币汇率对国际企业价值的影响.实证分析表明,人民币汇率对企业中短期产生的影响较大,且影响强度随着国际企业外贸收入占主营业务收入比例的增长而增大.通过对行业指数(包括非金融行业指数和金融行业指数)的中期历史数据的分析,发现不同行业受到外汇风险的影响各有不同.作为研究结果的应用,根据实证结论有针对性地提出了外汇风险管理建议.     

Monetary policy shocks and exchange rates in Asian countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates in Asian countries. To do so, we use VAR models which impose sign restrictions on impulse responses to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to significant exchange rate appreciation in Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea. However, in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, we find either a significant depreciation or no significant effect. These results suggest that an interest rate increase (or decrease) may not necessarily shield Asian countries from exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) pressure following a U.S. interest rate increase (or decrease).     

The implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand: What factors affect the 90-day bank bill rate?

This paper discusses the implementation of monetary policy in New Zealand and its flow-on effects on the 90-day bank bill rate over the 1999–2005 period. The effects of external factors are considered as well. Our findings indicate that the maturity spectrum ratio exerted a positive effect on the 90-day bank bill rate while the allotment ratio did not. This interest rate had a tendency to revert to the level set by its Australian counterpart, though at a relatively slow speed. No such link exists between the NZ 90-day rate and the U.S. 90-day rate. Neither the maturity spectrum nor the allotment ratio contributed to the volatility of the most important short-term interest rate in New Zealand.     

中国旅游产业对国民经济的贡献研究

文章采用旅游增加值剥离测算法估算2000～2008年中国大陆31个省级单位的旅游产业增加值,并测量旅游产业增加值对国民经济的贡献率和拉动幅度,旨在分析旅游产业在国民经济中的地位。结论有三:第一,我国旅游产业以高于国内生产总值的增长速度快速成长,波动较大且存在地区差异;第二,旅游产业的发展与国民经济的整体发展水平密切相关,在以旅游产业作为先导产业的省份中,旅游产业对国民经济的拉动作用较为显著;第三,我国大部分地区的旅游产业对GDP贡献率主要集中在3%～8%,而拉动系数则保持在0.5至1.5个百分点之间。     

浅谈有线数字电视系统的调试与维护

文章介绍了有线数字电视的基本特点、系统指标、应用以及有线数字电视传输系统的维护,阐明了有线数字电视系统常见故障处理方法。     

市场和政府:扩大内需的约束条件

七次降息未能扭转通货紧缩现象,其原因在于以间接融资为主的金融市场,利率机制自发调节存在 失灵的区域,而宏观调控缺乏运作的基础,也存在盲目性。应加快利率市场化进程,促进金融市场直接融 资的迅速发展,才能有效实现币值稳定和经济增长。     

浙江省经济增长要素贡献率的实证分析

在浙江省的经济增长过程中,劳动力贡献率是最低的,资金投入量与技术进步贡献率呈现上升趋势。就目前来看,在浙江省的经济发展中,资金投入量是经济增长的主动力,技术进步是经济增长的加速器,而劳动力资源为浙江省的经济增长提供了宽阔的空间。