Timing of Public Information and Cost Reduction

Received July 31, 2000; revised version received July 18, 2001     

基于SCOR模型的供应链流程管理架构研究

从企业流程建模的理论出发,对SCOR模型加以扩展,提出了一个基于SCOR模型的供应链流程管理建模架构,描述了该架构的组成要素以及各要素间的联系,为供应链流程管理提供了模型支持。     

THE JOINT ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE PROCESS FOR THE M/M/l QUEUE

We consider the M/M/1-queue and derive an explicit expression for the joint distribution of the number of arrivals and the number of departures in [0, t), given the number of customers initially present. The derivation is almost purely combinatorial, it avoids the use of generating functions, and immediately yields a simple probabilistic interpretation of the result.     

Modelling of repairable systems with various degrees of repair

The availability of a stochastic repairable system depends on the failure behaviour and on repair strategies. In this paper, we deal with a general repair model for a system using auxiliary counting processes and corresponding intensities which include various degrees of repair (between minimal repair and perfect repair). For determining the model parameters we need estimators depending on failure times and repair times: maximum likelihood (ML) estimator and Bayes estimators are considered. Special results are obtained by the use of Weibull-type intensities and random observation times.     

基于交易成本经济学的企业业务外包分析

企业业务外包是近年来在国外兴起的一种经营行为,它的目的是降低成本,提高企业的竞争力。目前中国很多企业也纷纷在尝试这一做法。然而不是任何企业,任何业务都适合外包。本文将从交易成本经济学的角度来对企业业务外包这一行为进行分析,提出适宜进行业务外包的情况,并说明进行业务外包时应该注意的问题。     

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro-drivers (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops.     

论风险投资中的尽职调查

通过对20多位风险投资家的调研,对他们尽职调查所必备的条件、策略及过程进行了系统分析,总结出其内在规律,以期对我国风险投资项目的筛选有所启示.     

Evolution of momentum and popularity

In this paper, the evolutionary behavior of two types of investor in a capital market with two risky competing securities is investigated. It is shown that, if all investors are momentum-oriented, then only those who are the most sensitive to popularity will survive. Conversely, if all investors are popularity-oriented, then they will all invest in the same security.     

呋喃酚的合成方法

根据原料的不同,呋喃酚合成方法可分为邻苯二酚法、邻氯苯酚法、环己酮法、硝基苯酚法、愈创木酚法、邻异丙基酚法、羟基苯异酮法等,文章对前几种较常见的合成方法的原理及工艺进展进行了详细的综述,并展望了呋喃酚合成方法的发展趋势。     

审计判断的成因及其在审计过程中的应用

审计专业判断是审计人员职业道德、胜任能力和专业经验的有机统一和外在表现,当审计人员面对复杂审计事项和不确定审计环境时,正确的审计判断是审计人员能否作出合理认识、评价、预测和决策的必要条件,也是审计能否成功的关键因素。本文从审计判断的特征、成因入手,探讨了在现代审计模式下审计判断在审计过程中的应用问题。