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1.
Hervé Roche 《Journal of Economic Theory》2003,113(1):131-143
We re-examine the representative agent's optimal consumption and savings under uncertainty in the presence of investment constraints using martingale representation and convex analysis techniques. This framework allows us to explicitly quantify precautionary savings which induces a higher average growth rate than in a certainty setup. We provide a closed form solution for a Cobb-Douglas economy. The effect of uncertainty on portfolio selection is analyzed. Consumption growth rate and risk free interest rate exhibit a U-shaped relationship. Uncertainty negatively affects expected consumption growth rate; such a result seems to be supported by empirical evidence. 相似文献
2.
Takeshi Momi 《Journal of Economic Theory》2003,111(2):240-250
The purpose of this paper is to give a global characterization of excess demand functions in a two-period exchange economy with incomplete real asset markets. We show that continuity, homogeneity and Walras’ law characterize the aggregate excess demand functions on any compact price set which maintains the dimension of the budget set. 相似文献
3.
The nature and magnitude of the economic shocks that have affected the per capita GDP of 16 OECD countries are analyzed over a long period using the outlier method. Strong proof of infrequent large permanent and transitory shocks were found, essentially resulting from the two major wars in the twentieth century, the recession in the 1920s, the Great Depression, among others. We also examine the nature of the output trend by combining different tests of non-stationarity on different GDP series corrected by the outliers detected. It is shown that the per capita GDP series cannot reject the unit root hypothesis in 13 of the 16 countries examined. No conclusion could be drawn for the other countries because the test results were contradictory. 相似文献
4.
There are two variance components embedded in the returns constructed using high frequency asset prices: the time-varying variance of the unobservable efficient returns that would prevail in a frictionless economy and the variance of the equally unobservable microstructure noise. Using sample moments of high frequency return data recorded at different frequencies, we provide a simple and robust technique to identify both variance components. 相似文献
5.
Tina Hviid Rydberg 《Finance and Stochastics》1997,1(3):251-257
Simple sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique equivalent martingale measure are provided. Furthermore, these
conditions give us a handle on situations where an equivalent martingale measure cannot exist. The existence of a unique equivalent
martingale measure is of relevance to problems in mathematical finance. Two examples of models for which the question of existence
was unresolved are studied. By means of our results existence of a unique equivalent measure up to an explosion time is proved. 相似文献
6.
Ivan Paya Ioannis A. Venetis David A. Peel 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2003,65(4):421-437
Two different approaches intend to resolve the ‘puzzling’ slow convergence to purchasing power parity (PPP) reported in the literature [see Rogoff (1996) , Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 34.] On the one hand, there are models that consider a non‐linear adjustment of real exchange rate to PPP induced by transaction costs. Such costs imply the presence of a certain transaction band where adjustment is too costly to be undertaken. On the other hand, there are models that relax the ‘classical’ PPP assumption of constant equilibrium real exchange rates. A prominent theory put together by Balassa (1964, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 72) and Samuelson (1964 Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 46) , the BS effect, suggests that a non‐constant real exchange rate equilibrium is induced by different productivity growth rates between countries. This paper reconciles those two approaches by considering an exponential smooth transition‐in‐deviation non‐linear adjustment mechanism towards non‐constant equilibrium real exchange rates within the EMS (European Monetary System) and effective rates. The equilibrium is proxied, in a theoretically appealing manner, using deterministic trends and the relative price of non‐tradables to proxy for BS effects. The empirical results provide further support for the hypothesis that real exchange rates are well described by symmetric, nonlinear processes. Furthermore, the half‐life of shocks in such models is found to be dramatically shorter than that obtained in linear models. 相似文献
7.
Clive W. J. Granger 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2003,65(Z1):689-701
The paper asks the question – as time series analysis moves from consideration of conditional mean values and variances to unconditional distributions, do some of the familiar concepts devised for the first two moments continue to be helpful in the more general area? Most seem to generalize fairly easy, such as the concepts of breaks, seasonality, trends and regime switching. Forecasting is more difficult, as forecasts become distributions, as do forecast errors. Persistence can be defined and also common factors by using the idea of a copula. Aggregation is more difficult but causality and controllability can be defined. The study of the time series of quantiles becomes more relevant. 相似文献
8.
David G. McMillan 《Oxford bulletin of economics and statistics》2003,65(5):557-573
Linear predictability of stock market returns has been widely reported. However, recently developed theoretical research has suggested that due to the interaction of noise and arbitrage traders, stock returns are inherently non‐linear, whereby market dynamics differ between small and large returns. This paper examines whether an exponential smooth transition threshold model, which is capable of capturing this non‐linear behaviour, can provide a better characterization of UK stock market returns than either a linear model or an alternate non‐linear model. The results of both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample specification tests support the exponential smooth transition threshold model and hence the belief that investor behaviour does differ between large and small returns. 相似文献
9.
Licheng Sun 《The Journal of Financial Research》2003,26(3):389-404
In this article I provide new evidence on the role of nonlinear drift and stochastic volatility in interest rate modeling. I compare various model specifications for the short‐term interest rate using the data from five countries. I find that modeling the stochastic volatility in the short rate is far more important than specifying the shape of the drift function. The empirical support for nonlinear drift is weak with or without the stochastic volatility factor. Although a linear drift stochastic volatility model fits the international data well, I find that the level effect differs across countries. 相似文献
10.
反倾销规则是 WTO允许的世界各国均可采用的维护公平贸易秩序、抵制不正当竞争的重要手段之一 ,其规则非常严密 ,主要是明确规定了反倾销必须同时具备的三个条件及反倾销的程序。WTO成立以后 ,各成员方纷纷修改本国的反倾销法律 ,我国于 2 0 0 1年 12月 10日颁布了《中华人民共和国反倾销条例》,使之与 WTO的反倾销规则相一致。同时 ,也在积极利用 WTO反倾销规则来反对他国反倾销的滥用。 2 0 0 1年引起各界广泛关注的欧盟对我国石材业反倾销申诉案 ,经涉诉的我国 2 7家企业的积极应诉 ,终以欧盟撤诉 ,我方取得全面胜利而告终。这是我国按照 WTO原则建立自我保护体系 ,有效保护本国经济利益和经济发展的重要举措。意味着我国政府也将利用反倾销这把“利剑”来保护国内企业 相似文献