Monetary union and the Maastricht inflation criterion: The accession countries*

We model an accession country facing a Maastricht‐type inflation criterion that specifies an inflation ceiling. In addition to deciding whether or not to satisfy this criterion, the country must decide how much costly economic reform to undertake. If the country puts enough weight on the future that it can credibly meet the inflation criterion no matter what the ceiling is, then the inflation criterion benefits the country but lowers reform. If the country puts less weight on the future, then a criterion with a properly chosen inflation ceiling can increase reform. We derive the inflation ceilings that maximize the country's welfare and its reform.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies

Using a panel dataset of bilateral flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), we study the determinants of FDI from Western countries, mainly in the European Union (EU), to Central and Eastern European ones. We find the most important influences to be unit labor costs, gravity factors, market size, and proximity. Interestingly, host country risk proves not to be a significant determinant. Our empirical work also indicates that announcements about EU Accession proposals have an impact on FDI for the future member countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 775–787.     

外资银行进入对发展中国家银行信贷可得性的影响研究

如何引导外资银行增加东道国的信贷可得性,尤其是中小企业的信贷可得性,是目前理论和政策界争论的焦点问题之一。本文通过构建一个理论模型,分析了外资银行进入和国内信贷供给的关系,从市场均衡结果、社会福利、成本效率等几个角度对外资银行进入发展中的东道国的影响进行综合分析。模型结果表明,外资银行的进入并不必然增加一国的总体信贷水平、也并不必然提高东道国银行业的成本效率和整体社会福利,甚至在某些特定条件下,结果可能适得其反。     

论中国“入世”后的特定产品过渡性保障机制

特定产品过渡性保障机制是中国入世议定书中最具争议的内容之一。中国入世议定书第16条规定,如果中国的进口扰乱了其他WTO成员的国内市场,该WTO成员可以针对急速增加的中国进口采取保障措施。该机制允许其他WTO成员在一定条件下只针对来源于中国的产品进口采取保障措施,不同于WTO《保障措施协议》所要求的在最惠国原则基础之上不对产品的来源进行选择性实施保障措施的规定。本文的目的就在于探讨中国入世议定书第16条特定产品过渡性保障机制与WTO《保障措施协议》的关系,尝试回答WTO《保障措施协议》能否适用于特定产品过渡性保障机制这一问题。     

加入WTO十年的中国农产品贸易与竞争力问题研究

中国已成为世界农产品贸易大国。在农产品加入WTO十年中,由于成功地运用了两个市场,两种资源的互补性发展格局,带来了农产品贸易额不断增长的可喜局面,但另一方面,由于对外依存度越来越大,农产品国际竞争力整体不强等原因,中国农产品的未来发展仍面临种种问题,因而,制定相应政策目标和政策优化显得极为重要。     

欧美承认中国市场经济地位问题及中国的对策

"入世"15年来,中国的经济取得举世瞩目的成绩,在世界国际贸易中的地位也快速提升,但中国的市场经济地位问题一直成为备受争议的话题。对于2016年底中国是否能够自动获得市场经济地位问题,中国和欧美的意见存在分歧。由于市场经济地位是否被承认将深刻影响中国被"反倾销"的成功概率,因此对中国的贸易发展十分重要。欧美等经济体不愿承认中国市场经济地位受多种因素影响,如法律、经济、政治利益等。对此,中国政府应积极应对,加强外交努力,督促欧美等经济体履行WTO义务,同时不断完善中国市场经济体制。     

WTO体制对我国物流法律制度发展的影响

文章对WTO有关物流法律制度的规定从货物贸易法律制度、物流组织法律制度、物流行为法律制度、物流经济调控法律制度四个方面进行了分析,结合我国入世议定书及我国物流法律制度对WTO相关规定的吸收、采纳,对我国现行物流法律制度在WTO体制下的不相符之处进行了总结．提出了完善的建议,全面讨论了WTO体制对我国物流法律制度发展的影响。     

Integration of FSU/economies in transition into the World Trade Organization1

Membership of the World Trade Organization is a goal for many transition economies. This paper discusses what is involved in WTO membership, the information required and the commitments imposed upon members. After reviewing the accession process in general, the topic is illustrated by the recent example of Bulgaira and Mongolia.     

Measuring the welfare costs of EU accessionThe case of VAT reform in Bulgaria

We analyze possible reforms to the Bulgarian VAT system, evaluating revenue-neutral reallocations of goods to tax bands within the existing 2-rate structure. We investigate the sensitivity of the results to behavioural response and imperfect tax recovery. We find only a weak case for the use of non-uniform VAT rate structures for redistributional purposes. Selective VAT exemptions can produce approximate welfare gains equivalent to a general price fall of much less than 1 per cent for plausible specifications of social welfare.
JEL classification: D31, J31, P24.     

Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?

Many fear China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will impoverish its farmers via greater import competition in its agricultural markets. We explore that possibility bearing in mind that, even if producer prices of some (land-intensive) farm products fall, prices of other (labor-intensive) farm and nonfarm products could rise. New estimates, from the global, economy-wide numerical simulation model known as Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), of the likely changes in agricultural and other product prices as a result of WTO accession, are drawn on to examine empirically the real income implications of China's WTO accession. The results suggest farm–nonfarm income inequality may well rise within China but rural–urban income inequality need not. The article concludes with some policy suggestions for alleviating any pockets of farm household poverty that may emerge as a result of WTO accession.