Replacement Investment: Optimal Economic Life Under Uncertainty

Replacement investment is essentially a regenerative optimal stopping problem; that is, the key decision concerns when to terminate the life of existing plant – and hence when to start over again. This paper examines this optimisation problem within a continuous time framework and studies the qualitative and quantitative impact of uncertainty on the timing of new investment (and the criteria that should be used for terminating the life of existing plant).     

Foreign debt and economic growth

This paper empirically examines the relationship between government foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP based on a total sample of 77 countries, as well as sub‐samples of various regions. Cross‐sectional estimates of the coefficient of foreign debt based on the total sample have a negative sign, but are not always statistically significant. Available data from African countries indicate that foreign debt and the growth rate of per capita GDP were negatively related at a high level of significance. For industrialized and Latin American sub‐samples, this relationship is negative but statistically insignificant. The sub‐sample Asian and other developing countries show a positive but insignificant relationship. JEL classification: F34, H6, O23.     

Road infrastructure and economic development in the periphery: the case of A55 improvements in North Wales

This paper examines the impact of a major road improvement programme on the economic development of North Wales. The paper identifies the economic impacts of the road on a selection of firms and organisations in North Wales, and provides a modelling framework to examine the static and dynamic effects of road improvements. Road improvements across North Wales are found to be a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for economic development in this peripheral area.     

From the Tribal to the Open Society: The Role of Medieval Craft Guilds in the Emergence of a Market Order

The emergence of a legally constituted State in 16th century western societies represents the final lap of a process extending the sphere of the indivudal freedoms necessary for the emergence of the market order. A peculiar stage of this process came in the form of guilds. They materialised into a need for emancipation from the values of the archaic society and became the keepers of a peace and a justice on the market by ensuring the respect of new rules of conduct (1). This analysis of the behaviour of craft guilds will illustrate the question of the possibility of rational economic activity in medieval society (2).     

北京先行经济指数研究

"北京先行经济指数"是我国第一个区域性先行经济指数,在试运行中取得了很好的效果。该指数以我国现行统计制度为基础,紧密结合北京实际,通过构造基准循环、"提取"先行指标、编制指数、返回检验等步骤,对北京先行经济指数的科学性和有效性进行了分析。先行指数超前GDP增速变化4～8个月这一重要研究结论在返回检验中得到了很好的证实。     

旅游业乘数研究辨正

乘数效应是研究旅游业经济影响中广泛使用的一种方法.但"旅游业乘数"是一个伪命题,现有的模型、计算方法是不可靠的,广泛引用的数据也不可信.本文分析了旅游业乘数研究的不足,并提出了几点建议.     

中国30年经济增长与就业：构建灵活安全的劳动力市场

运用宏观统计数据,本文首先回答了中国经济增长是否创造就业的问题.通过分阶段分析经济增长对就业的拉动效应.文章认为中国经济增长是一种创造了大量就业的增长;本文第二部分分析劳动供求关系的最新变化及其演变趋势.认为劳动供求关系正在发生根本性转变。但中国尚没有步入劳动力短缺时代.在今后20年左右的时间内仍然拥有充足的劳动供给;本文第三部分讨论了当前劳动力市场所面临的主要问题,认为结构性矛盾突出、就业非正规化严重、初次收入分配扭曲等问题突出:第四部分为结论,提出构建安全灵活劳动力市场的概念和设想。     

浅析企业集团财务管理

跨入新世纪以来,经济环境的变化对全球企业财务管理都提出了新的要求,尤其是对我国企业财务管理而言。目前,我国企业财务管理还存在着管理者财务管理知识不足、财务管理预警机制缺乏等问题,急需采取相应措施进行补救和完善。