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71.
孔群喜 《对外经济贸易大学学报》2011,(2):74-83
文章通过构建自回归分布滞后模型研究了汇率波动情况下贸易开放度与经济增长的长期关系,然后建立误差修正模型对两者之间的短期关系进行了刻画,重点考察了1978-2008年我国贸易开放度与经济增长在不同阶段的影响机制.经验分析结果表明,外商直接投资和贸易开放度对经济增长的短期效应大于长期效应;而人民币实际汇率对于经济增长的效应... 相似文献
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基于京津冀一体化背景,构建包括能耗与排放指标的产业结构生态化指标体系,可涉及产业结构合理化、高级化和可持续化三个方面。在比较分析1991—2013年京津冀产业结构生态化趋势特征与差异的基础上,运用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL模型)对产业结构生态化与能源结构的关系进行实证分析,可探讨京津冀产业结构生态化演进对能源结构的短期与长期的动态影响。分析结果表明,京津冀产业结构生态化水平差异明显,河北远远滞后于京津地区,京津冀总体生态化演进趋势缓慢;京津冀产业结构生态化演进对能源消费结构具有长期均衡影响;产业结构高级化水平对能源消费结构影响最大,而产业结构合理化的影响较小。 相似文献
73.
Muhammad Aftab Karim Bux Shah Syed Rubi Ahmad Izlin Ismail 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2016,25(4):453-478
This research investigates the exchange-rate risk sensitivity of Malaysian bilateral trade flows with its important trading partner, Japan. To this end, bounds testing approach to co-integration is applied using industry level data over the monthly period 2000–2013. Findings suggest that above the one-third of the total co-integrated export (43.86%) and import (34.54%), industries experiences the ringgit/yen variability effect in the short run. However, this effect sustains in relatively less number of export (14.03%) and import (32.73%) industries in the long run. It is interesting to note that exchange-rate risk boosts trade flows in the majority of these affected industries. 相似文献
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Joo Ricardo Faria Andr Varella Mollick Pedro H. Albuquerque Miguel A. Len-Ledesma 《China Economic Review》2009,20(4):793
The increase in oil prices in recent years has occurred concurrently with a rapid expansion of Chinese exports in the world markets, despite China being an oil importing country. In this paper we develop a theoretical model that explains the positive correlation between Chinese exports and the oil price. The model shows that Chinese growth can lead to an increase in oil prices that has a stronger impact on its export competitors. This is due to the large labor force surplus of China. We then examine this hypothesis by estimating a reduced form equation for Chinese exports using Rodrik [Rodrik, Dani, 2006. What's so special about China's exports? China and World Economy 14, 1–19.]'s measure of export competitiveness, together with the oil price, productivity, real exchange rate, and foreign industrial production over the monthly 1992–2005 period. The results suggest a stable relationship and yields slightly positive values for the price of oil and elastic coefficients for export competitiveness, along with the expected negative elasticity for the real exchange rate. 相似文献
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Zouhair Mrabet 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2018,27(3):333-349
This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter. 相似文献
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We propose a bootstrap autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) test. By applying the appropriate bootstrap method, some weaknesses underlying the Pesaran, Shin and Smith ARDL bounds test are addressed including size and power properties and the elimination of inconclusive inferences. In addition, inferences based solely on the significance of the F-test and single t-test from the ARDL bounds test are not sufficient to avoid degenerate cases. The bootstrap ARDL test provides an additional test on the significance of coefficients on lagged levels of the regressors, which provides a better insight into the cointegration status of the model. 相似文献
79.
This study measures financial uncertainty for two classes of alternative financial assets (Dow Jones Islamic and Dow Jones Sustainability Indexes) and the conventional US stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Index) for the period of 1999–2017, using an asymmetric exponential GARCH model. Using an ARDL model, we propose an intertemporal dynamic analysis of uncertainty for Islamic and socially responsible stock markets. Our findings show that, first, conventional and ethical investments present high comparable levels of uncertainty for which the dynamics is time-varying. Second, uncertainty in the conventional US stock market has a significant and positive effect on the uncertainty in alternative stock markets. Thus, uncertainty characterizes conventional and ethical stock markets both in the short and long terms. In particular, while the short-term uncertainty of ethical markets might be associated with their characteristics, the long-term aspect of uncertainty for ethical funds is rather associated with the effect of the conventional stock market environment. Although these findings show mean-reversion and uncertainty spillovers from the alternative stock markets to the conventional US one, they suggest lack of safety and certainty for investments in ethic markets, which remain fragile and closely dependent on the conventional market. 相似文献
80.
Jungho Baek Monday Jerry Ikponmwosa Yoon Jung Choi 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2019,28(5):533-547
The contribution of this article is to assess whether the effects of crude oil price fluctuations on the trade balance are symmetric or asymmetric in the context of an individual oil-exporting country, specifically four OPEC member countries – Iran, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. To examine this subject thoroughly, we use three different measures of trade balances such as oil trade balance, non-oil trade balance, and total trade balance, and examine whether oil prices are asymmetrically passed on to the trade balances for those OPEC countries in the long- and short-run. After implementation of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, we find that changes in oil prices indeed have asymmetric effects on the oil trade balance for all four OPEC countries in the long-run, though not in the short-run. In the case of the non-oil and total trade balance, however, the asymmetry of oil price changes is not detected in both the long- and short-run. 相似文献