应用期权方法构建商业银行贷款利率模型

以分析公司普通股所具有的看涨期权特性为出发点，以Black—Scholes看涨期权定价模型为基础，根据不同企业资本结构和资产回报风险的差别，构造了一个商业银行基本贷款利率模型。从期权角度来设计贷款利率模型，除考虑了企业的经营风险因责外，还同时考虑了企业融资结构所带来的财务风险，能更加全面地反映出商业银行贷款的保障程度。     

A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods

We employ datasets for seven developed economies and consider four classes of multivariate forecasting models in order to extend and enhance the empirical evidence in the macroeconomic forecasting literature. The evaluation considers forecasting horizons of between one quarter and two years ahead. We find that the structural model, a medium-sized DSGE model, provides accurate long-horizon US and UK inflation forecasts. We strike a balance between being comprehensive and producing clear messages by applying meta-analysis regressions to 2,976 relative accuracy comparisons that vary with the forecasting horizon, country, model class and specification, number of predictors, and evaluation period. For point and density forecasting of GDP growth and inflation, we find that models with large numbers of predictors do not outperform models with 13–14 hand-picked predictors. Factor-augmented models and equal-weighted combinations of single-predictor mixed-data sampling regressions are a better choice for dealing with large numbers of predictors than Bayesian VARs.     

Stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners: does trade intensity matter?

We investigate the extent and manner of stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners and examine whether this is affected by trade intensity. Based on trade intensity, we classify Australia’s trading partners into major, medium and minor partners. We hypothesize that markets with greater (lower) trade intensity will be more (less) interdependent with Australia. We perform correlation (unconditional and conditional) analyses between Australia and its trading partners. Our results indicate that most of the markets that are highly correlated with Australia are its major trading partners. We conduct panel regression analysis to investigate whether trade intensity has any impact on the stock market correlations between Australia and its trading partners. The results show that trade intensity significantly and positively affect the correlations of Australia with its major trading partners. Thus, the results confirm our hypothesis that trade intensity drives stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners.     

Business models and their relationship with marketing: A systematic literature review

The purpose of this paper is to identify the degree to which the marketing discipline has hitherto engaged with business model literature. The results of a systematic review of business model literature are presented and utilise both the citation counts and the h-index to objectively demonstrate the limited engagement that the marketing discipline has had with business model literature, and the limited degree that the discipline has influenced that literature. The key findings reveal a growing, but formative body of literature that, hitherto, has been dominated by non-marketing disciplines and which has only just begun to be addressed by present day marketing scholars. Using the most influential articles identified in the analysis, the paper concludes with a case for the empirical development of the business model concept with industrial marketing scholarship. Such development is argued to be grounded in the potential of open business models, co-created with multiple stakeholders in a supply chain and the end users of a value proposition.     

Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts

The credit risk capital requirements within the current Basel II Accord are based on the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) approach. The asset correlation parameter, defined as an obligor's sensitivity to the ASRF, is a key driver within this approach, and its average values for different types of obligors are to be set by regulators. Specifically, for commercial real estate (CRE) lending, the average asset correlations are to be determined using formulas for either income-producing real estate or high-volatility commercial real estate. In this paper, the value of this parameter was empirically examined using portfolios of U.S. publicly-traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) as a proxy for CRE lending more generally. CRE lending as a whole was found to have the same calibrated average asset correlation as corporate lending, providing support for the recent U.S. regulatory decision to treat these two lending categories similarly for regulatory capital purposes. However, the calibrated values for CRE categories, such as multi-family residential or office lending, varied in important ways. The comparison of calibrated and regulatory values of the average asset correlations for these categories suggests that the current regulatory formulas generate parameter values that may be too high in most cases.     

Analysis of the complexity of writing used in accounting textbooks over the past 100 years

The Accounting Education Change Commission (AECC) and the large international accounting firms have all emphasized that accountants must be able to work with unstructured problems to be successful in today's business environment. Measures of this ability are essential if accounting educators are to assist students in improving their abilities to work with unstructured problems. However, there appears to be no measure that has been widely accepted as being the ‘best’ measure. This study considers whether two linguistic performance measures might be usable by accounting educators for this purpose. We use data obtained from a student assessment centre to consider two measures of linguistic performance, idea density and grammatical complexity. We incorporate five criteria in deciding whether these measures could be usable: (1) whether the measures are related to students' performance when solving unstructured problems; (2) whether the measures distinguish between the ability to work with unstructured compared to structured problems; (3) ease of obtaining necessary information from students; (4) ease of scoring, and (5) robustness of the findings after considering other variables that may have an effect. Our results indicate that subjects' linguistic performance as measured by idea density meets these five criteria. However, grammatical complexity is not related to performance for either type of problem. These results were found even after controlling for the effects of other variables such as grade point average (GPA), experience, and personality variables. Because the measures can be obtained from virtually any written work produced by students, the information to be scored is relatively easy to obtain. Scoring is also relatively straightforward.     

中心城市经营模式比较分析

根据两种典型中心城市经营模式的具体实践经验,将产品经营模式和环境经营模式的不同之处进行剖析;并从中归纳出对其他中心城市发展的经验借鉴。从中心城市向国际化城市转变要求出发,环境经营模式更符合,但同时需要中心城市的周围城市共同发展,而产品经营模式更适合选择。     

Bank business models and liquidity creation

Using a large panel of US bank holding companies from 2001 to 2015, this study investigates the association between functional diversification and bank liquidity creation. I document evidence of lower liquidity creation for higher diversification. The effect of moving into nontraditional activities on liquidity creation is more apparent with large banks and less pronounced with small banks. The impact of diversification on liquidity creation is less significant during the late stage of crisis and is more clearly observed in small and medium-sized banks. Low liquidity creation banks, leveraged by a higher share of non-interest income, are more likely to further decrease their liquidity creation. The study is of interest to regulators and policymakers who are concerned about bank business models.