An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics

Using theoretical and empirical analyses, this paper shows that the expectation dynamics induced by information asymmetry between the Central Bank (CB) and the public can cause the price puzzle. The signalling and learning dynamics between the CB and a representative private-sector agent under asymmetric information is investigated. Inflation positively reacts to contractionary monetary policy because the change in the interest rate is perceived as a signal of the CB’s private information about higher future inflation and output by the public. The empirical section of the paper validates this theoretical argument using a VAR specification about the US economy. Besides providing an explanation for the price puzzle, the results of this paper has practical implications about transparency and monetary policy. The theoretical and empirical findings indicate that asymmetric information causes significant frictions in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. These frictions induce short-run undesired effects like increase in expected inflation and actual inflation as a response to contractionary monetary policy which is identified as “the price puzzle”.     

The economic impact of shale gas extraction: A review of existing studies

Recent advances in drilling technology have allowed for the profitable extraction of natural gas from deep underground shale rock formations. Several reports sponsored by the gas industry have estimated the economic effects of the shale gas extraction on incomes, employment, and tax revenues. None of these reports has been published in an economics journal and therefore have not been subjected to the peer review process. Yet these reports may be influential to the formation of public policy. This commentary provides written reviews of several studies purporting to estimate the economic impact of gas extraction from shale beds. Due to questionable assumptions, the economic impacts estimated in these reports are very likely overstated.     

Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-war U.S.

A New Keynesian model allowing for an active monetary and passive fiscal policy (AMPF) regime and a passive monetary and active fiscal policy (PMAF) regime is estimated to fit various U.S. samples from 1955 to 2007. The results show that data in the pre-Volcker periods strongly prefer an AMPF regime, even with a prior centered in the PMAF region. The estimation, however, is not very informative about whether the Federal Reserve's reaction to inflation is greater than one in the pre-Volcker period, because much lower values can still preserve determinacy under passive fiscal policy. In addition, whether a PMAF regime can generate consumption growth following a government spending increase depends on the degree of price stickiness. An income tax cut can yield an unusual negative labor response if monetary policy aggressively stabilizes output growth.     

Comparing theories to explain e-commerce adoption

E-commerce is a strategy for rapid growth, especially by small and medium sized businesses (SMEs). However, the adoption rate of e-commerce by SMEs in Latin America is still undersized. The authors compare the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the theory of reasoned action (TRA) using structural equation modeling to determine which is better at predicting e-commerce adoption intentions among 210 SME managers/owners in Chile. Contrary to previous research with American respondents, the study does not find significant differences between the two theories. Thus, academics should select the more parsimonious model (TRA) to study e-commerce adoption issues in developing countries.     

物流企业集群服务创新行为演化模型及案例分析

文章根据复杂系统理论观点,分析了物流企业集群服务创新系统的构成要素,及其行为演化的框架体系;基于复杂系统涌现机理,构建了物流企业集群服务创新行为演化的状态层级模型;最后以天津保税物流园区为例进行案例分析,剖析其创新演化过程,期望为天津以至我国物流企业集群的发展提供一定的借鉴。     

Extending the BG/NBD: A simple model of purchases and complaints

Extant customer-base models like the beta geometric/negative binomial distribution (BG/NBD) predict future purchasing based on customers' observed purchase history. We extend the BG/NBD by adding an important non-transactional element that also drives future purchases: complaint history. Our model retains several desirable properties of the BG/NBD: it can be implemented in readily available software, and estimation requires only customer-specific statistics, rather than detailed transaction-sequence data. The likelihood function is closed-form, and managerially relevant metrics are obtained by drawing from beta and gamma densities and transforming these draws to a sample average. Based on more than two years of individual-level data from a major U.S. internet and catalog retailer, our model with complaints outperforms both the original BG/NBD and a modified version. Even though complaints are rare and non-transactional events, they lead to different substantive insights about customer purchasing and drop-out: customers purchase faster but also drop out much faster. Furthermore, there is more heterogeneity in drop-out rates following a purchase than a complaint.     

Why the Generalized Bass Model leads to odd optimal advertising policies

We show that the optimal advertising strategy under the Generalized Bass Model (GBM) involves beginning at an extremely low level (the lower the better) and then increasing spending throughout the planning period. This strategy remains optimal in the presence of decreasing prices that affect both margins and diffusion speed. We provide a simple explanation for why this happens. We further show that the intuitively appealing patterns of continuous decrease or increase-then-decrease (both with an uptick towards the end) identified in earlier research are also possible as optimal dynamic advertising paths under the GBM structure, but only if the advertising at launch is constrained to be higher than a particular threshold, which we identify. The constraint necessary to generate intuitively appealing strategies lowers overall profits. Therefore, the GBM generates advertising policy recommendations that most marketers would deem odd. This casts doubt on the value of the GBM for normative purposes. Other existing diffusion models are preferred when seeking normative guidance on optimal dynamic advertising policies for new products subject to word of mouth.     

产业经济学双语教学的调查与分析

针对产业经济学双语教学的实践,通过问卷调查的方式,考察双语教学对学生英语水平、专业知识的影响,以及影响双语教学效果的因素和学生对双语教学过程的看法。结果表明,双语教学可以在某种程度上提高学生的英语水平和专业词汇掌握量,学生英语基础、教学模式和教学方法对双语教学效果有重要影响,提出应提高学生听说能力,改革双语教学模式和教学方法,提高双语教学效果。     

改善富士康科技集团员工心智模式的基本路径

剖析了富士康科技集团员工跳楼事件的本质,总结出富士康员工的心智模式并分析其成因,提出了完善富士康员工心智模式的五条通路,即培养员工良好的性格、建立有效的沟通渠道、拓展人才策略与晋升空间、推行员工援助计划和在实践中努力提升情商。