我国省际旅游业发展影响因素的空间计量研究

运用空间面板模型,选取中国31个省、市、区1999-2007年国内旅游与入境旅游的影响因素的面板数据构建不同的计量模型,实证结果表明,我国省际旅游业与其影响因素的作用关系的空间效应为一种趋同效应。当地经济发展水平对旅游业的发展存在最显著的正影响,旅游交通状况的改善、旅游接待设施的完善也有利于当地旅游业的发展,城镇居民收入水平的提高对当地国内旅游的发展存在显著的促进作用,但农村居民家庭人均纯收入以及旅游资源禀赋对我国旅游业的影响并不显著。     

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND CONDITIONAL STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA*

This paper analyses how systematic risk emanating from the macroeconomy is transmitted into stock market volatility using augmented autoregressive Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (AR‐GARCH) and vector autoregression (VAR) models. Also examined is whether the relationship between the two is bidirectional. By imposing dummies for the 1997‐1998 Asian and the 2007‐2009 sub‐prime financial crises, the study further analyses whether financial crises affect the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market volatility. The findings show that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly influences stock market volatility. Although volatilities in inflation, the gold price and the oil price seem to play a role, it is found that volatility in short‐term interest rates and exchange rates are the most important, suggesting that South African domestic financial markets are increasingly becoming interdependent. Finally, the results show that financial crises increase volatility in the stock market and in most macroeconomic variables, and, by so doing, strengthen the effects of changes in macroeconomic variables on the stock market.     

Cropland use,yields, and droughts: spatial data modeling for Burkina Faso and Niger

For countries with recurrent droughts, the design of drought impact mitigation measures could benefit from analyses of determinants of yields and prices of local crops at regional and district level. This study applies dynamic spatial panel data regression models to yields and prices of four major food crops across regions of Burkina Faso and Niger, over sample periods between 1984 and 2006. Results lend support to mainly simultaneous spatial spillovers, particularly for millet and cowpea prices and sorghum yields in Niger, and maize yields in Burkina Faso. After accounting for these effects, most crop yields are found to be weakly price‐responsive, as envisaged by a supply‐side geographical diffusion hypothesis. Seasonal rainfall elasticity estimates suggest that dominant food crops have slight advantage margins in terms of relative resilience to rainfall shortages. However, this result is to be weighed against low millet yields in Niger, and marked drops in sorghum yields during officially declared droughts in Burkina Faso.     

企业家心智模式形成及其对企业发展的影响

心智模式（Mental models）是当前管理学界广泛关注的话题,有关企业家心智模式的讨论不论是在理论或实践领域都颇受关注。文章的主要目的是探讨企业家决策背后,所隐含的假设与信念——也就是企业家心智模式对企业发展的影响,并期望能提供一个新的完善企业家心智模式的途径。     

经济密度、人口规模与环境污染——基于城市面板数据的实证分析

选取2005-2016年285个地级及以上城市数据,利用静态和动态短面板模型分析经济密度和人口规模对环境污染的影响,分析表明:经济密度与环境污染之间存在“倒U型”关系,人口规模扩大会抑制污染物排放;不同等级城市经济密度、不同规模城市人口对环境污染的影响方向一致,但影响程度有所差异;前期污染排放对当期具有正向影响,环境污染物排放存在路径依赖;经济发展水平、工业产值占比和对外开放也是影响污染物排放的重要因素,但各指标对三类污染物排放的影响方向和影响程度存在差异。据此认为,在综合考虑城市具体空间区位条件下,人口适度集聚,提高城市经济密度,优化产业结构以及加强环境监管是环境治理的重要方向。     

Digital Platforms and the Nature of the Firm

Abstract:

Digital platforms turn traditional approaches of the firm, which relied on the wage relation to explain the major difference between firm and market, upside down and underline the advantages of coordination through organization over coordination through market. This study aims to propose a definition of the firm able to integrate, besides the integrated firm, also hybrid forms such as networks of subcontractor/subcontracting firms as well as atypical forms such as digital platforms. By reactivating the firm-boundary problem, this article suggests putting valorization by labor at the heart of the firm’s decisions concerning integration. It suggests therefore a general definition of the firm as a techno-institutional center of capital valorization, provided that firms make profits by means of the appropriation of labor incorporated into their (productive, structural, intellectual) capital through institutional arrangements. By stressing the relation of production between the owners of the means of production and the direct producers, the approach of the firm supported here should allow to cover the different existing models of the firm, from the classical firm to hybrid models, around which the boundary debate has revolved, to digital platforms.     

重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系运行机制研究

在突发事件应急管理过程中,科技研发支撑作用十分关键,亟需建立突发公共卫生事件科研应急体系长效运行机制。基于科技研发应急体系的复杂性、适应性特征,从主体属性和体系架构两个层面入手,分析重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系的复杂适应系统特征,运用复杂适应系统理论模型和动态闭环螺旋模型,研究重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系运行机制。研究发现,重大突发公共卫生事件背景下,科技研发应急体系具有复杂适应系统的7个基本特征,是典型的复杂适应系统;科技研发应急体系中,科研攻关专家组、诊疗医院、科技部门等科研主体具有各自内部模型,并通过6大标识进行聚集;科技研发应急体系存在事件—需求引导、主体协同、资源交互、成果转化机制。同时,新冠病毒肺炎疫情应对实践表明,疫情防控救治进程中科技研发应急体系存在并遵循上述运行机制。     

企业社会责任与企业价值——组织惰性与行业敏感度的调节作用

以2012—2016年沪深两市A股上市公司的数据为依据,通过实证分析研究了企业社会责任对企业价值的影响,并从组织层面和行业层面的视角探讨了组织惰性和行业敏感度对该影响的调节作用。研究结果表明,企业社会责任对企业价值具有显著的促进作用;组织惰性减弱了企业社会责任对企业价值的促进作用;行业敏感度阻碍了企业通过履行社会责任进而提升企业价值的过程。     

省级主体功能区规划实施评价

主体功能区规划是指导国土空间开发的宏观和战略性规划。随着规划进入实施阶段,实施评价研究亟待展开。以省级主体功能区规划为对象设计了总体框架,探讨了结果—过程评价相结合的规划实施评价指标设计思路,分别从规划目标实现程度、分区功能落实情况、规划实施保障机制和规划社会影响评价4个方面,选择31个具有代表性的指标确定了规划实施评价的指标体系,并对主体功能区规划实施评价指标权重确定、指标标准化、评价方法等进行了探讨。