对新疆农业产业结构调整的思考

随着新疆农业经济的发展,农业产业结构不合理问题日益凸现,并成为制约新疆农业发展的主要因素。通过对新疆农业产业结构变动的实证分析结果可以看出,只有加大农业产业结构调整力度才能促进新疆农业的进一步发展。     

我国股票市场收益率的持久性分析

随着混沌理论的发展和应用,分形市场理论逐步引起金融领域研究者的重视.R/S方法是研究分行结构特征的有效工具,许多学者应用R/S方法分析股票市场收益率的变化规律,得出了有价值的结论.采用修正R/S方法以及关联维数方法分析上证综合指数的市场有效性,结果显示,上证综合指数没有呈现明显的持久性,不能拒绝有效市场假说.     

加强经济学的数量分析

论文从我国忽视经济学数量分析发展的原因入手．认真分析了社会主义市场经济条件下加强经济学的数量分析的必要性，并提出了经济学数量分析加强的主要内容．     

我国高等环境教育的师资队伍现状初探

本文通过对我国高等环境教育现状调研所取得的有关师资队伍状况方面的数据资料等进行整理统计分析,以揭示我国高等环境教育在师资队伍方面的结构情况。     

人力资本与区域经济发展的计量分析

基于1990年与2000年人口普查数据,运用回归分析研究了区域人力资本指标10年间的差异及其变化趋势对地区经济发展水平变动的影响.结果表明,对人均GDP的增长率有显著影响的因素,按其影响程度由大到小依次为:平均受教育年限增长率、识字率提高率、教育投资占GDP 的比例变动和每千人医生数增长率,但它们对人均GDP影响的方向不同,这一结论不同于许多学者的总量研究结果.本文还利用因子分析进一步解释了人力资本各指标的层次结构对经济作用的影响.这对于在经济转型期深刻认识人力资本在促进区域经济发展中的作用有参考价值.     

我国开征遗产税的必要和可能分析

上世纪90年代初，遗产税开始走进我们的视野，对是否应该开征和应该如何征收此税的争论一直存在。依据国外遗产税理论研究的有关成果，分析反对开征的意见和我国目前实际情况，可得出结论：在我国开征遗产税不仅必要，而且可能。     

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: a Reference Approach

For any probability model M={p(x|θ, ω), θεΘ, ωεΩ} assumed to describe the probabilistic behaviour of data xεX, it is argued that testing whether or not the available data are compatible with the hypothesis H₀={θ=θ₀} is best considered as a formal decision problem on whether to use (a₀), or not to use (a₀), the simpler probability model (or null model) M₀={p(x|θ₀, ω), ωεΩ}, where the loss difference L(a₀, θ, ω) –L(a₀, θ, ω) is proportional to the amount of information δ(θ₀, ω), which would be lost if the simplified model M₀ were used as a proxy for the assumed model M. For any prior distribution π(θ, ω), the appropriate normative solution is obtained by rejecting the null model M₀ whenever the corresponding posterior expectation ∫∫δ(θ₀, θ, ω)π(θ, ω|x)dθdω is sufficiently large. Specification of a subjective prior is always difficult, and often polemical, in scientific communication. Information theory may be used to specify a prior, the reference prior, which only depends on the assumed model M, and mathematically describes a situation where no prior information is available about the quantity of interest. The reference posterior expectation, d(θ₀, x) =∫δπ(δ|x)dδ, of the amount of information δ(θ₀, θ, ω) which could be lost if the null model were used, provides an attractive nonnegative test function, the intrinsic statistic, which is invariant under reparametrization. The intrinsic statistic d(θ₀, x) is measured in units of information, and it is easily calibrated (for any sample size and any dimensionality) in terms of some average log‐likelihood ratios. The corresponding Bayes decision rule, the Bayesian reference criterion (BRC), indicates that the null model M₀ should only be rejected if the posterior expected loss of information from using the simplified model M₀ is too large or, equivalently, if the associated expected average log‐likelihood ratio is large enough. The BRC criterion provides a general reference Bayesian solution to hypothesis testing which does not assume a probability mass concentrated on M₀ and, hence, it is immune to Lindley's paradox. The theory is illustrated within the context of multivariate normal data, where it is shown to avoid Rao's paradox on the inconsistency between univariate and multivariate frequentist hypothesis testing.     

Comparison of statistical analysis methods for object case best–worst scaling

Abstract

Aims: Different methods have been used to analyze “object case” best–worst scaling (BWS). This study aims to compare the most common statistical analysis methods for object case BWS (i.e. the count analysis, multinomial logit, mixed logit, latent class analysis, and hierarchical Bayes estimation) and to analyze their potential advantages and limitations based on an applied example.

Methods: Data were analyzed using the five analysis methods. Ranking results were compared among the methods, and methods that take respondent heterogeneity into account were presented specifically. A BWS object case survey with 22 factors was used as a case study, tested among 136 policy-makers and HTA experts from the Netherlands, Germany, France, and the UK to assess the most important barriers to HTA usage.

Results: Overall, the five statistical methods yielded similar rankings, particularly in the extreme ends. Latent class analysis identified five clusters and the mixed logit model revealed significant preference heterogeneity for all, with the exception of three factors.

Limitations: The variety of software used to analyze BWS data may affect the results. Moreover, this study focuses solely on the comparison of different analysis methods for the BWS object case.

Conclusions: The most common statistical methods provide similar rankings of the factors. Therefore, for main preference elicitation, count analysis may be considered as a valid and simple first-choice approach. However, the latent class and mixed logit models reveal additional information: identifying latent segments and/or recognizing respondent heterogeneity.     

Deregulation, consolidation and banks efficiency in Singapore: Evidence from event study window approach and Tobit analysis

A three-year window analysis together with the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach is employed to investigate the effects of mergers and acquisitions on the Singapore banking groups’ efficiency. The results suggest that the merger has resulted in a higher Singapore banking groups’ mean overall efficiency. We do not find evidence of more efficient acquirers compared to the targets and that the acquiring banks’ mean overall efficiency tends to improve from the merger with a more efficient bank. The Tobit regression results suggest that bank profitability has positive impact on bank efficiency, whereas poor loan quality has negative influence on bank performance. (JEL: G21, D24) All findings, interpretations, and conclusions are solely those of the authors’ and do not necessarily represent the views of the institutions to which they belong. We would like to thank the anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions. The remaining errors are of our own.     

中国上市公司经营者薪酬合理度的测定与分析

本文从"边际产出确定经营者薪酬"的经济学基本原理出发,首先设定了中国上市公司经营者薪酬合理度的计算方法,然后从整体上以及行业和地区的角度对上市公司经营者薪酬的合理度进行了实际测定和分析.最后,根据分析结论,本文提出了今后改善中国上市公司经营者薪酬激励机制的政策建议.