人口老龄化背景下法国养老金保险制度改革及其启示

本文首先介绍了法国养老金制度的现状;然后介绍了萨科齐政府养老金制度面临的挑战;紧接着介绍了2010年养老金改革法案的内容及历程;最后借鉴法国养老金制度改革的经验,总结出完善我国养老金制度的几点启示:避免社会保障碎片化格局;社会保障不能拖累经济发展;设计养老金制度必须考虑可持续性问题;鼓励社会各界参与养老保险改革。     

人口结构变化、储蓄率与地区经济增长--基于PVAR模型的实证分析

本文以内生人口结构为视角,以中国各省、自治区、直辖市1990-2012年的数据为样本,通过设定面板向量自回归模型,研究人口结构、储蓄率以及经济增长之间的内在关系。结果表明：不同地区间人口结构对储蓄率和经济增长会带来不同的影响,中部地区与全国水平较为接近,各方面走势也与全国水平相似;经济增长使得少年抚养比出现持续性下降,除东部地区外,经济增长使老年抚养比也出现缓慢下降,但后续逐步趋于平稳;除东部地区外,少年抚养比的冲击使得储蓄率出现持续性上升,而老年抚养比的冲击使得储蓄率呈现出先上升后下降的特点。人口结构的变化会通过影响储蓄进而影响经济增长,而未来人口老龄化现象的加剧需要有更高的储蓄率进行应对。基于此,本文提出应通过研究现行人口政策,改变社会人口结构,提升少年抚养比,以有效应对由于“人口红利”消失对经济发展所带来的负面影响。     

Comparative analysis of health care costs in Japan and the United States: a simulation of productivity and savings behavior

Japan and the United States, though contrastive in terms of the percentage of the elderly in their population and the ratio of their health care costs to GDP, both face soaring medical expenditures. Sato et al. [Health Care Systems in Japan and the United States: A Simulation Studies and Policy Analysis. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Hingham, MA] developed a model to solve this problem by increasing the productivity of the non-health care sector. This study has applied that model to estimate national savings, and compared these savings with estimated health care costs. The results show that in order for savings to exceed expenditures the US needs to have a higher savings rate and a higher interest rate than Japan.     

人口年龄结构与住宅价格调控

在人12老龄化背景下．当人12总量和年龄结构发生质的变化时,将对住宅价格产生深远影响。本文在人口学研究基础上。有效结合住宅销售价格指数．通过逐步回归的方法获得购房适龄人口数量与住宅价格的关系模型,同时创新性地纳入莱宾斯坦人口发展五阶段理论,通过Logarithmic曲线模型进行量化分析。结论显示,在假定条件下．随着未来适龄购房人口的减少,国内住房价格将在2018年出现拐点并逐步回落,并在2030年前后降至2000年水平（剔除通胀因素）,之后将处于长期低迷状态。因此当前在遏制住房价格过快上涨的同时,应从更长远的视角构建调控思路。     

Does aging influence structural change? Evidence from panel data

Our study represents a first attempt to single out the effects of aging on the entire structure of the economy that is approximated by employment shares in different sectors. We find that even after controlling for the effects of other relevant factors - e.g., income per capita, share of trade in GDP, government consumption share in GDP, population size - aging does have a statistically significant differentiated impact on the employment shares. In particular, we find that an increase in aging exerts a statistically significant adverse effect on the employment shares in agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and mining and quarrying industries. At the same time, an increasing share of the elderly (decreasing share of the youth) in society positively affects employment shares in community, social, and personal services as well as in the financial sector.     

The crowding-out effect of elderly support expenditure on household consumption from the perspective of population aging: Evidence from China

The pace of aging in China is accelerating, from the introduction of family planning to the liberalization of the two-child policy, with a growing proportion of families in the 4–2-1 structure. With filial piety in mind, most adult children will live with their elderly parents and share income and expenditure. Concurrently, due to the inadequacy of the social security system, a heavy supplementary burden of supporting the elderly has been placed on adult children. Based on data from the 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017 Chinese Social Survey (CSS) of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), this study analyzes the objective factors affecting household elderly support expenditure using the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation method. It also examines the crowding-out effect of elderly support expenditure on the consumption of different types of households through a panel generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. Finally, the crowding-out effect of elderly support expenditure is discussed in a sub-sample according to the number of households needing to support the elderly aged 60 and above. The empirical results illustrate that there is a crowding-out effect of elderly support expenditure on household consumption, and the magnitude of the crowding-out effect varies for diverse consumption. Our study reveals that the crowding-out effect of elderly support expenditure on core consumption is the largest in a sample with different numbers of elderly persons in families. The empirical results for the sub-sample show that the larger the elderly population, the stronger the crowding-out effect of elderly support expenditure on core consumption and the less pronounced the effect on marginal consumption.     

日本M&A市场的新趋势

随着经济全球化的深入,世界规模的企业重组和资金流动改变着各个行业中的企业势力范围。从10年前开始。日本企业为了保卫和加强现有的势力范围防止来自国内或国外的威胁开始了一场新的M＆A高潮。这次的N＆A不管在N＆A件数,还是在所涉及的行业、规模、收购金额大小上都有突破,在日本的M＆A历史上留下一页。同时,N＆A收购过程也改变了日本社会对M＆A的认识,也冲击到了日本传统的终身雇佣制。运用M＆A来解决日本社会面临的问题。如人口减少和老龄化的问题也是这次M＆A的新尝试。     

养老机构发展呼唤创新——基于北京市海淀区养老机构的调研

由于老龄人口剧增,加之社会转型、政府职能转变和家庭养老功能弱化,老年人群,特别是高龄和带病老年人对于社会服务的需求迅速增长,这无疑给现存的养老服务体系带来巨大的冲击和压力。通过对北京市海淀区养老机构长达数月的调研,我们了解到目前入住老人大多身患多种疾病,身体状况普遍较差,大部分老人选择入住养老机构是出于自己的意愿,但是,老人的收入水平限制了其对机构养老方式的选择。通过调研我们还发现,现存养老机构发展面临着资金不足、经营困难以及许多体制性障碍,为促进养老机构发展,在加大投入力度、加快投入步伐、创新投入方式满足社会对养老机构的需求外,应强化保障性养老机构中政府的作用和理顺养老机构的管理体制。此外,由于短时间内,大幅度增加养老机构确有困难,可以规范管理社会化居家养老服务,起到一定的补充、替代作用。     

The link between hunting goals and strategy and harvest outcome

Abstract

This article explores relationships among hunting goals, hunting strategies, and harvest success and attempts to assess if and how the relationships between harvest and nonharvest goals and harvest outcomes change in the presence of selected intervening hunting strategy variables. Log‐linear analysis examines the relationship among harvest outcome, hunting goals, and hunting strategies. Hunting strategies were found helpful in explaining the patterns of harvest outcome, suggesting that how a person hunts may be as important as why they hunt. Hunting strategy is seen as a viable concept for use in future investigations.     

证券支持黑龙江、吉林两省西部地区农业机械合作社建立的可行性分析

随着我国人口红利逐年下降和城镇化进程不断加快,中国农村地区农业人口老龄化问题日渐突出,如不及时解决农村劳动力缺失的问题,十年之后中国粮食安全将难以保障。农业生产机械化是我国农业升级最为基础的部分,其高效的生产力可有效补充中国农村出现的劳动力缺口。但是我国耕地所属散乱,极不利于大型农机作业,只有将各户土地集中使用,才能解决我国农业生产机械化最棘手的问题。本文以东北西部地区为样本剖析农业机械化生产的收益构成,研究农村合并耕地成立农业机械合作社的可行性。本文借鉴国内外较为成熟的证券化理论,结合东北地区实际情况,首创的提出利用证券市场加速我国农业升级的构想。