创新老年产业发展与深化居家养老服务

人口老龄化对中国而言既是挑战也是机遇,中国老年产业市场潜力巨大,但目前发展不足,面临诸多困难;社区居家养老服务是适合中国国情的养老模式,在发展过程中也存在一系列问题。大力推进老年产业发展与深化居家养老服务二者是相互促进的。应通过政府、企业、社会团体、学界、家庭与个人等多方联动,协同配合,创新老年产业发展,推动居家养老服务,形成广泛的社会动员和价值关怀,从而有效满足老年需求,推动和谐社会进程。     

试谈开征社会保障税

我国现行的社会保障筹资方式难以适应失业和人口老龄化所带来的剧增社会保障费用支出的需要,改革现行社会保障基金筹资方式,开征社会保障税已刻不容缓,体现在税制设计应遵循的基本原则,以及确定社会保障税的基本框架等方面更应先行。     

Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model

We forecast income growth over the period 2000–2050 in the US, Canada, and France. To ground the forecasts on relationships that are as robust as possible to changes in the environment, we use a quantitative theoretical approach which involves calibrating and simulating a general equilibrium model. Compared to existing studies, we allow for life uncertainty and migrations, use generational accounting studies to link taxes and public expenditures to demographic changes, and take into account the interaction between education and work experience. Forecasts show that growth will be weaker over the period 2010–2040. The gap between the US and the two other countries is increasing over time. France will catch-up and overtake Canada in 2020. Investigating alternative policy scenarios, we show that increasing the effective retirement age to 63 would be most profitable for France, reducing the gap between it and the US by one third. A decrease in social security benefits would slightly stimulate growth but would have no real impact on the gap between the countries.     

贫困是否影响农村中老年人的精神健康——基于CHARLS数据的实证研究

农村老年人在经济上是最为弱势的群体,他们的贫困发生率远远高于城市老人。贫困不仅体现为物质上的剥夺,更会引起认知退化和抑郁等精神健康上的问题。文章使用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,实证考察经济状况对农村中老年人精神健康的影响。多层线性模型估计结果表明：家庭人均年收入每提高一千元,反映认知状况的情景记忆显著提高0.132分、精神状态显著提高0.121分,而反映抑郁程度的CES-D则显著下降0.293分。进一步分析表明,收入对精神健康的促进作用对高收入者更大。考虑到农村更加严重的老龄化程度,通过减贫实现农村中老年人精神健康状况的改善将具有重要的现实意义。     

我国老龄产品产业发展状况探析——基于北京市老年人保健品服用状况分析

目的从北京市老年人保健品服用状况的视角入手,初步了解我国老龄产品产业发展状况。方法本文运用2010年中国城乡老年人口状况追踪调查(北京地区)的数据对老年人关于保健品的服用情况做以分析,从人口学因素、老年人自身状况因素等角度进行交叉分析,旨在从老年人保健品服用状况出发,探析我国老龄产品产业发展的状况。结果北京市老年人的保健品服用率一直较低,对于年龄、地区、教育程度、身份、经济状况、慢性病、自评健康和生活满意度的交叉分析统计学显著。结论在我国,保健食品行业市场潜力巨大,应该了解老年人的选择心理,正确倡导是我国老龄产品产业进一步发展。     

Financing consumption in an aging Japan: The role of foreign capital inflows and immigration

We project the impact of demographic change on Japanese capital flows by simulating the impact of population aging on Japanese saving and investment rates. As aging depresses saving rates, in our baseline projections, we show that by 2015, foreign capital inflows will comprise about 15 percent of Japanese output. A distinguishing feature of this paper is that we compare the capital flows that occur without immigration to the capital inflows that would occur with immigration of 400,000 people annually. With the larger labor force from immigration and the large induced capital accumulation, output will be 22 percent higher by 2020, and 50 percent higher by 2040. The higher output means that less capital needs to be imported; by 2015, Japan will be importing only 8 percent of its output. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (4) (2004) 506–527.     

日本公共养老保障体系的财政困境及对我国的启示

中国和日本同属人口老龄化速度最快的国家行列。1980年代中期以来,深度人口老龄化和经济低迷的双重压力使日本现收现付制的公共养老保障体系的财政状况迅速恶化,由之而来的对养老制度的不信任以及在解决问题过程中产生的代际负担和待遇的不公平使得越来越多的国民选择逃避养老金缴费责任,日本的公共养老保障体系面临日益严峻的挑战。考察日本养老保障体系面,临的困境及其产生原因,从中吸取经验和教训,对于我国正在进行的养老保障制度改革具有现实意义。     

Italy’s demographic trap: Voting for childcare subsidies and fertility outcomes

In this paper we study how population aging impacts the age distribution of the voting electorate and voters’ choices over childcare subsidies. We build a computable general equilibrium framework populated by heterogeneous agents who, over the course of their life-cycle, make endogenous and age-dependent fertility choices. The model is calibrated to match economic and population outcomes of the Italian economy. Child support favors young and fertile cohorts but can also impact all population subgroups through changes in prices, income taxation and population growth. A probabilistic voting model is used to measure voting outcomes over a range of childcare subsidy levels and tax policies. Our findings show that childcare subsidies have a positive impact on the total fertility rate and are welfare improving when financed with both capital and labor income taxation and in combination with lower pension contribution rates. A 10 percent increase in the level of subsidies can increase the population growth rate by an average of 0.47–0.70 percentage points. We find that voting choices of different population subgroups, while depending on the tax used to finance new expenditure, lead to lower levels of childcare subsidies, lower fertility rates and to a demographic ‘trap’.     

Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany

We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.     

人口老龄化与区域创业水平——基于启信宝创业大数据的研究

本文首次基于启信宝大数据获得我国各城市创业数据,同时利用人口推演模型获得各城市人口老龄化数据,利用计划生育政策作为工具变量建立起二者之间的因果识别。本文发现,老年人口抚养比每上升1%,城市创业企业数量将下降10%左右,具有显著的经济意义。本文在宏观和微观两个层面进行了丰富的机制检验,发现同时存在家庭内部的“养老压力”机制和家庭外部的“等级效应”机制,这两条机制分别揭示家庭内部人口老龄化和家庭外部人口老龄化对个体创业行为的影响。整体而言,本文工作补充了人口老龄化与创业的相关研究,也为制定创业和人口政策提供参考。