Simulating fundamental tax reforms in an aging Japan

This paper studies in a quantitative way the macroeconomic and welfare effects of introducing progressive expenditure taxation, in a situation of the aging of the Japanese population. It undertakes a simulation analysis taking account of the general equilibrium effects of intragenerational inequality, which increases with a transition to an aging society. The simulation results suggest that progressive expenditure taxation has advantages over progressive labor income taxation on the grounds of efficiency and equity. Thus, a shift to progressive expenditure taxation can overcome the large welfare loss that would occur under the current tax system as Japan ages.     

日本长期照护保险制度及其启示

在人口老龄化和财政负担日益严重的背景下,日本于2000年开始实施长期照护保险制度。该制度主要覆盖日本40岁以上的中老年人,制度收入源自缴费和税收,向有需求的被保险人提供照护服务。该制度自实施以来,运行状况基本良好,并经历了两次主要的改革。其中,2005年改革取得了较大成效。中国应当借鉴日本经验,未雨绸缪,尽早从制度设计上为不断加剧的人口老龄化做好准备。同时,也应多方筹资,共同发挥政府和市场的作用。     

Efficiency changes in long-term care in OECD countries: A non-parametric Malmquist Index approach

Future demographic projections indicate that long-term care (LTC) demand will put significant pressures on the long-term sustainability of public finances. Efficiency gains could potentially compensate for increasing LTC expenditures. Nevertheless, among the factors that drive LTC expenditures, efficiency, or productivity discussions have received little attention. This paper provides the first analysis of the efficiency levels of LTC for a subset of OECD countries. In doing so, the study adopts a non-parametric approach and performs a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The results of the DEA show that average efficiency scores have a slight tendency to increase. There was a 0.1% increase in productivity in the provision of LTC between 2009 and 2014, which mainly resulted from an increase in technological change. However, the slight increase in efficiency is insufficient to offset fiscal pressures led by the increasing number of LTC beneficiaries and amount spent on LTC. The second stage Tobit analysis results further indicate that the productivity of LTC provision does not differ across countries with different public LTC financing arrangements.     

老龄化中国人口红利实现的可能性与途径探讨

本文首先简要回顾了有关老龄化社会的人口红利效应的相关研究。近而,利用抽样人口数据,本文预测了未来75年我国人口规模与结构的变化趋势,指出在未来的大部分年份里,从第一人口红利的角度看,人口结构很可能将对中国经济增长起负面作用;而解决未来养老问题并实现第二人口红利的关键是：从当前开始即在充分就业的前提下实现持续的、有效的资本积累。一个重要的、可行的资本积累方式就是建立积累制的养老金计划。     

养老金改革考验我们经济学的功底和智慧北大核心

本文从四个方面思考中国养老金改革问题。一是指出养老金改革是一个多维复杂的系统。宏观角度涉及养老金缺口问题和资本市场健康发展,微观角度与生产率密切相关。从国际比较来看,中国的老龄化程度比全球平均水平更严重,但养老金储备属于全球较低水平。从增强养老保障可持续性看,可能有延长退休年龄、增加储蓄、减少替代率、增加预筹资金并确保资金保值增值等四种办法。二是提出中国养老金改革的总体框架。本文建议建立一个较为综合的衡量目标,比如G30采用的"终身财务安全度量(Lifetime Financial Security,简称LFS)"的方法,跨部门比较政策效果,讨论维持在同一框架内,避免各说各话。本文还提出,中国养老金制度从DB型转向DC型,可以采取历史还原法和名义账户的办法,解决养老金改革转轨中的代际公平问题,以及城乡差别、所有制差别问题。三是提出"N对1"养老金发放模式与30余个养老金管理机构数量等养老金经营管理设想,并指出养老金投资回报与风险偏好须匹配,结合我国资本项目开放进程考虑养老金全球化投资。四是从住房、民粹主义等非金融领域,延伸思考养老金改革的复杂性。最后,本文总结指出,中国养老金改革是一项考验经济学功底和智慧的重大课题,应从多个维度全面分析、讨论、测算、论证,高度重视养老金改革对相关各方的激励作用,做出大胆有效的改革。     

机制纸与手抄纸及其印品老化过程研究

探索纸张本身颜色和印刷品颜色随环境条件变化而变化的规律,对于纸张的使用和保存甚至文物的保存都有一定的意义。实验中选取三种纸张和三原色油墨,通过IGT印刷适性仪进行打样,分别将样条置入氙弧灯老化仪中在一定条件下进行老化后,使用分光光度计对老化前后样条的L＊、a＊、b＊值进行测量,计算得出色差ΔE,并绘出老化时间与色差关系曲线。同时,观察光谱反射率曲线变化,再利用拉曼光谱仪测量其谱图变化。研究结果表明,纸张本身和印品样条在老化前后产生色差,纸张本身的光谱反射率也产生一定变化,而印刷品光谱反射率曲线无明显变化,且纸张分子结构未发生变化,但拉曼强度增强。     

农村人口老龄化对收入不平等影响的实证研究

利用1989年-2011年的农户微观家计调查数据,采用方差分解和回归分解相结合的方法,考察农村人口老龄化对收入不平等的影响。研究发现农村收入不平等的总体变化主要是由组间效应所引起,即不同出生组之间不平等程度的加剧是收入不平等的主因;无论采用方差分解法还是采用回归分解法得到的研究结论表明,农村人口老龄化的确加剧了收入不平等,其影响程度相对较小,但从时间变化趋势来看,人口老龄化效应有增强之势。     

中国人口老龄化的特征趋势及对经济增长的潜在影响

基于中国第六次全国人口普查和联合国“世界人口展望”的最新数据,采用分要素预测法和人均GDP分解法,分析中国人口老龄化的现状、特征和趋势,并探讨其对经济增长的潜在影响。研究发现,中国人口老龄化具有“来得早”、“来得快”、城乡倒置等特征。在2010~2100年期间,人口老龄化若干关键指标快速上升且长期保持高位。如果将1960~2005年的中国人口结构替换成2005~2050年的数据,人均GDP增长率将降低1.23个百分点,这一影响程度在世界范围处于很高等级。     

Fostering intergenerational learning in the hotel industry: A multiple criteria decision-making model

The current research aims to identify the most suitable intergenerational learning activities for the Romanian hotel industry. A multiple criteria decision-making model is developed in order to determine the most appropriate intergenerational learning activities and the factors that strongly influence human resource managers’ decisions. Data are collected from 35 human resource managers who have extensive work experience in the hotel industry and in managing intergenerational learning activities, and processed using the analytic network process. The results prove that the most appropriate IGL activities for the Romanian hotel industry are mentoring, on-the-job education, and storytelling. Furthermore, the most influential factors are collaboration, commitment, job satisfaction, reward management, and organizational culture. These results have both theoretical and practical implications. On the one hand, they extend the literature regarding intergenerational learning in the hotel industry and on the other hand, they bring forward how the managers could foster intergenerational knowledge sharing and avoid corporate amnesia.     

中低增长与日本经济发展新时期

2002~2006年及今后的景气恢复与发展,标志着日本已经进入一个以中低增长为特征的新的经济发展时期,而形成这一阶段特征的重要根源则在于日本混在的经济.产业.企业结构。为推进这一时期的持续发展,必须解决伴随"少子老龄化"的深层次经济结构问题。从认识混在结构和提高劳动生产率.工资入手,则是解决问题的关键所在。