FDI影响中国制度变迁的理论模型——基于强制性制度变迁视角

立足于我国1979年以来的制度变迁以强制性变迁为主的特征,分析了在强制性制度变迁路径下FDI影响中国制度变迁的约束条件,构建了其理论模型,并解释了我国不同阶段、不同地区外资政策差异的深层次原因。     

Economic conditions for innovation: Private vs. public sector

The Hicks induced innovation hypothesis states that a price increase of a production factor is a spur to invention. We propose an alternative hypothesis restating that a spur to invention requires not only an increase of one factor but also a decrease of at least one other factor to offset the companies’ cost. We illustrate the need for our alternative hypothesis in a historical example of the industrial revolution in the United Kingdom. Furthermore, we econometrically evaluate both hypotheses in a case study of research and development (R&D) in 29 OECD countries from 2003 to 2017. Specifically, we investigate the dependence of investments to R&D on the economic environment represented by average wages and oil prices using panel regression. We find that our alternative hypothesis is supported for R&D funded and/or performed by business enterprises while the original Hicks hypothesis holds for R&D funded by the government and R&D performed by universities. Our results reflect that the business sector is significantly influenced by market conditions, unlike the government and higher education sectors.     

旅游地社会-生态系统成长模式研究——以金寨县为例

旅游引发的自然、社会、物质和人力资本等流量与流向的变化,关系着旅游地社会-生态系统运行的轨迹和可持续状态。基于循环经济相关理论,尝试构建旅游地社会-生态系统“五流”分析框架,以金寨县为案例地,使用PCA-OWA方法,分析2008—2019年旅游地社会-生态系统的资本变化、成长阶段及成长模式,并对其演化轨迹进行情景模拟。结果表明：（1）旅游业通过直接影响人口流动、商品和服务流动、信息流动以及各种资源消耗等“流”因素,使得金寨县旅游地社会-生态系统的物质和人力资本逐步增加,但社会资本仍处于较低水平,自然资本消耗较为明显;（2）12年间金寨县社会-生态系统呈现逐步好转的态势,其成长可划分为2008—2011年低水平匀速增长及2012—2019年快速成长2个阶段;（3）外生模式是金寨县目前持续的运行状态,未来在环境保护与经济发展关系的不断优化下有可能进入内生模式。随着旅游活动的扰动增强,旅游地社会-生态系统内部关系更加复杂,深入探究旅游地社会-生态系统成长的内在机理,可为区域可持续发展的政策制定提供科学参考。     

Valuation effects of capital inflows: Evidence from emerging market economies

This paper studies valuation changes of capital inflows in 19 emerging market economies (EMEs). In most of the EMEs, we find that there are significant valuation changes and a positive rate of return on external liabilities by foreigners. Furthermore, the nonlinear effects of exchange rate movements on valuation changes are investigated using panel smooth transition regression models. Empirical results show that the transition is centered at approximately −22.3% of exchange rate change, which implies that when the exchange rate appreciates more than this level, foreign investment value gains increase considerably.     

Board independence and firm value: A quasi-natural experiment using Taiwanese data

We examine the impact on firm value of independent directors based on Taiwanese firms. Using the changes in independent director composition mandated by the Amendments of Security and Exchange Act in Taiwan as a quasi-natural experiment, we document the arguably causal and negative effect of independent directors on firm value in both the short and long run. We also find that, in response to this act, firms have tended to replace existing non-independent directors, rather than simply adding new independent directors. We also find that the new independent directors have the same qualifications as those replaced non-independent directors but are costlier and busier. The evidence reflects the short supply of qualified independent directors and might explain the negative valuation effect.     

实际汇率与居民消费风险分担的动态关系——基于预期的视角

通过考虑居民预期行为的作用,实际汇率与居民消费风险分担的动态关系是一个附带预期的渐进调整过程。在利用东亚9个主要经济体的数据对该关系进行研究后发现：（1）东亚各国居民之间的消费风险分担程度较低,但是从2000年之后,居民消费风险分担程度在逐渐提高;（2）实际汇率变动基本上没有平滑东亚各国（地区）居民的消费变动;（3）持有静态预期行为的居民朝向长期消费风险分担均衡的调整程度较小,并且该调整速度较慢,同时持有理性预期行为的居民、持有适应性预期行为的居民背离长期消费风险分担均衡的调整程度较大,并且该调整速度较快,这是造成非完全消费风险分担均衡的重要原因。     

互联网金融时代保险业的变革与应对措施

随着互联网金融时代的到来,我国保险业面临着一系列变革,主要包括销售渠道的变革、产品结构的调整、产品经营与客户服务重要性的提升及市场格局的进一步松动。在应对互联网金融大潮时,保险企业应着力于构建开放的互联网思维、积极进行跨界合作并抢占移动端入口。