Do the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns?

This paper shows that the diversification choices of individual investors influence stock returns. A zero-cost portfolio that takes a long (short) position in stocks with the least (most) diversified individual investor clientele generates an annual, risk-adjusted return of 5–9%. This spread reflects the combined effects of sentiment-induced mispricing, narrow risk framing, and asymmetric information, where the sentiment effect is the strongest. Furthermore, the influence on returns is stronger among smaller, low institutionally owned, and hard-to-arbitrage stocks. These results are robust to concerns about relatively short sample size, improper factor model specification, slow information diffusion, and high transactions costs.     

Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil

In this paper we use the arbitrage pricing theory to infer the probability of financial institution failure for banks in Brazil. We build an index of financial stability for Brazilian banks. Empirical results seem to provide evidence that after the Russian crisis in 1998, systemic risk has increased in the country but this risk has decreased over time through 2002. Furthermore, for individual major banks the probability of failure has decreased monotonically after the Russian crisis with the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime, an inflation-targeting framework and the introduction of the new payment system.     

Financially constrained arbitrage in illiquid markets

This article analyzes trading strategies when arbitrageurs impact prices. Trades of financially constrained arbitrageurs are feedback functions of their capital, which depends on the amount traded. A component of arbitrage trading ensures financial flexibility. This hedging component explains why price deviations persist in spite of arbitrage. Financial constraints are responsible for volatile prices and for time variation in the correlations of prices across markets. Distortions arise when regulated firms can influence the dynamics of prices on which capital requirements are based. Under current value at risk (VaR) measures, large traders behave aggressively and have a cost advantage relative to other traders.     

The stock market and investment: another look at the micro-foundations of q theory

This paper introduces a novel distinction between real q andfinancial q. The paper examines three versions of financialq developed by Brainard and Tobin, Minsky and Hayashi, respectively.These theories differ regarding the nature of stock market pricedetermination and their use of marginal productivity theory.It is shown that non-profit maximising behaviour by managersdoes not invalidate q theory. It is also shown that if managersand shareholders have different profit expectations, this leadsto an equilibrium value of q that differs from unity. Lastly,the implicit claims in q theory regarding the efficient roleof stock markets as regulators of capital accumulation are shownto depend on assumptions about stockholder behaviour.     

Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope

This paper provides real-time evidence on the frequency, size, duration and economic significance of arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market. We investigate deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIP) condition using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency. The analysis unveils that: i) short-lived violations of CIP arise; ii) the size of CIP violations can be economically significant; iii) their duration is, on average, high enough to allow agents to exploit them, but low enough to explain why such opportunities have gone undetected in much previous research using data at lower frequency.     

Index arbitrage and dynamics between REIT index futures and spot prices

This article contributes to the real estate literature by investigating the pricing relationship between REIT index futures and spot. Based on the cost-of-carry model, we first show that there exist three arbitrage regimes in Australia’s REIT spot-futures price dynamics. Further analysis indicates that the two thresholds, which separate the regimes, are largely consistent with the level dictated by transaction costs. We then estimate a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM). The results show that mean reversion of the mispricing error only takes place in the two outer regimes. Furthermore, we find evidence that REIT spot market is more informationally efficient than the futures market. Given its short history, it will take time for REIT index futures market to mature. Finally, we find that we can enhance hedging performance by accommodating the feature of threshold cointegration displayed by the data. As the futures-spot relationship differs across regimes, we can develop a hedging strategy by adjusting the hedge ratio based on arbitrage regimes. It leads to a greater variance reduction for the hedged portfolio than some conventional methods examined in the existing real estate literature.     

The attributes,behavior, and performance of U.S. mutual funds

This article examines the risk and return characteristics of U.S. mutual funds. We employ an equilibrium version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and a principal-components-based statistical technique to identify performance benchmarks. We also consider the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as an alternative. We implement a procedure for overcoming the rotational indeterminacy of factor models. This procedure is a hybrid of statistical factor estimation and prespecification of factors. We estimate measures of timing ability for the CAPM and extend it to the APT. We find that this timing test is misspecified due to noninformation-based changes in mutual fund betas. We develop a modification of the timing measure that, under certain conditions, distinguishes true timing ability from noninformation-based beta changes.     

市场非均衡、知识与企业家过程

熊彼特和柯兹纳对企业家作用的不同看法直接导致了他们对企业家过程的不同理解。实际上他们所描绘的是两种不同类型的企业家,即创新型企业家和套利型企业家,这两种不同类型的企业家分别承担了创造性破坏和恢复均衡的职责。这两种企业家在经济增长中的作用是互相补充、互相依存的,两者共同构成了一个完整的、动态的企业家过程。在这个动态循环体系中,企业家知识是环流的介质。它的实质是企业家知识在市场中被创造、扩散、发现和吸收利用的过程。     

A general equilibrium analysis of strategic arbitrage

We analyze a general equilibrium framework with Cournot arbitrageurs and with price-taking investors who are subjected to restricted participation constraints. Restricted participation may leave some arbitrage opportunities unexploited by investors.We show existence of Cournot–Walras equilibria with an endogenous number of arbitrageurs. The number of arbitrageurs is endogenous since they have to sink entry costs in order to arbitrage across the relevant markets. We characterize equilibria and analyze the effects on equilibrium prices and quantities of increased competition among arbitrageurs due to lower entry costs.