政府与市场的权衡:一个比较分析

本文主要对政府和市场的权衡从一般原理和作用机制的视角进行了比较分析,并对相关分析进行了模型化.政府有政府的优势和长处,市场有市场的优势和长处,所以就需要在政府和市场之间进行权衡.政府和市场的作用跟一个国家所处的发展阶段有关,发展中国家的政府会比发达国家的政府发挥更大的作用.     

网络商品价格搜寻与实证分析

本文以实证的方式研究了网络商品的价格离散程度,证明了由于互联网使信息在市场中呈现均衡分布,成本与价格的透明度被提高,从而网上商品价格也趋于收敛。在完全信息市场上,当信息获取成本极低或为零时,交易者反而减少了从事信息收集的积极性,信息搜寻者的搜寻周期和次数都将减少,决策的速度从而可以加快。网上信息搜寻沿着特定的路径进行,搜寻成本已不再是信息搜寻中最主要的影响因素,市场的成熟情况、网络的传输率等将成为搜寻原则中新的内容。     

Simultaneous versus sequential information processing

Subjects update prior information simultaneously versus sequentially. The mean prediction is remarkably close to the correct Bayesian estimate with simultaneous information, but differs significantly conditional on whether good news precedes bad news or vice versa.     

An explanation for the price puzzle: Asymmetric information and expectation dynamics

Using theoretical and empirical analyses, this paper shows that the expectation dynamics induced by information asymmetry between the Central Bank (CB) and the public can cause the price puzzle. The signalling and learning dynamics between the CB and a representative private-sector agent under asymmetric information is investigated. Inflation positively reacts to contractionary monetary policy because the change in the interest rate is perceived as a signal of the CB’s private information about higher future inflation and output by the public. The empirical section of the paper validates this theoretical argument using a VAR specification about the US economy. Besides providing an explanation for the price puzzle, the results of this paper has practical implications about transparency and monetary policy. The theoretical and empirical findings indicate that asymmetric information causes significant frictions in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. These frictions induce short-run undesired effects like increase in expected inflation and actual inflation as a response to contractionary monetary policy which is identified as “the price puzzle”.     

非对称信息下的审计市场:逆向选择与信号传递

本文从博弈的角度对非对称信息下的审计市场进行了分析,认为目前我国的审计市场存在逆向选择效应,面临成为“柠檬市场”的威胁。审计市场要避免出现逆向选择,建立以会计师事务所品牌为手段的“信号传递机制”是必然之路。     

Superexponential long-term trends in information technology

Moore's Law has created a popular perception of exponential progress in information technology. But is the progress of IT really exponential? In this paper we examine long time series of data documenting progress in information technology gathered by [1]. We analyze six different historical trends of progress for several technologies grouped into the following three functional tasks: information storage, information transportation (bandwidth), and information transformation (speed of computation). Five of the six datasets extend back to the nineteenth century. We perform statistical analyses and show that in all six cases one can reject the exponential hypothesis at statistically significant levels. In contrast, one cannot reject the hypothesis of superexponential growth with decreasing doubling times. This raises questions about whether past trends in the improvement of information technology are sustainable.     

股指期货对现货市场的信息传递效应分析

本文研究了股票指数合约的交易对现货市场的影响以及股指期货是否有助于现货市场在信息传递速度与效率方面的提升.利用了GARCH模型,修正GARCH模型,TGARCH模型及极端值模型,通过对香港恒生H股指期货合约引入前后样本的实证分析发现,在期货合约未上市前,波动性干扰反应在时间上的持续性效果较持久.反之,在股价指数期货合约推出后,可以观察到波动性干扰因子的影响会更快速的反应到经济体系中,显示此时的波动过程更趋稳定.由此推论出期货交易的进行加速了信息传递的效率.亦即开放期货合约的交易,对于其标的现货市场的信息传递以及市场波动性,皆具有正面的贡献.     

Bidding between incumbent and entrant

Facing an informed incumbent who has cost advantages in two different states, the uninformed entrant bids cautiously due to the incumbent’s cost advantage in the low cost state. The incumbent bids aggressively, earning additional profits because of his cost advantages.     

服务业信息化的就业效应实证研究

文章依据信息化综合指数模型测算了1990—2008年间我国服务业信息化水平,在此基础上运用协整检验和向量误差修正模型估计了信息化对服务业就业的影响。结果表明,服务业信息化水平自90年代以来呈不断上升趋势,并且对就业产生正向的促进作用。从动态角度看,服务业信息化与就业变化之间存在长期均衡关系,服务业信息化初期对就业产生较大的负面冲击,但从长期来看,服务业信息化对就业产生正向的影响,并带动服务业资本投入对就业也产生正向的影响。总体上,服务业信息化的就业创造效应大于替代效应,从而存在正的净效应。因此,认为应从提高现代服务业比重、加大对服务业人力资本投资、提高居民服务消费能力等方面来促进服务业信息化以带动服务业就业。     

大数据背景下零售经营要素变革研究

零售业是大数据应用最广泛的和深入的行业,大数据带来的信息革命改变了消费者的消费行为与方式,营造了全新的营销环境。大数据技术的快速发展为零售企业深刻认识和把握消费行为与市场需求提供了新的工具、方式和视角。文章阐述了大数据及其与零售业之间的关系,分析了消费者主权时代消费行为的新特征,指出消费者成为商业价值链的主导者,变得更理性、更注重个性化、对消费体验提出了更高要求。因此,在全新的营销环境中,零售企业必须回归零售业本质,以终端消费者主导为中心,运用大数据技术,围绕目标顾客定位、店址选择、商品管理、定价策略、促销管理、商品陈列和供应链等零售经营要素进行变革。