风险投资股份转让的博弈分析

本文讨论风险投资股份转让的两种方式的比选问题,基于信息的不对称程度,可实现的交易范围相应变小,而随着风险企业控制方的不同,不同的转让方武是最优的.     

基于外汇期权方法的汇率预测研究

文章利用2004年芝加哥商品交易所的美元-欧元期货期权的信息,分析了其隐含偏度和隐含波动率在预测短期汇率中的效力。结果发现,隐含偏度、隐含波动率的偏度与每日汇率变化率有紧密的联系。     

一种镀锌板生产线电气传动控制系统

介绍了镀锌板生产线的工艺流程及其对电气传动的要求，采用PLC对镀锌板生产线的张力和带速进行协调控制，对电气传动控制系统的活套带重补偿和控制算法作了论述。本系统在实际使用中可靠性高，经济效益好，是一种适用的镀锌板生产线电气传动控制系统。     

上海股市收益与波动的周内效应研究

股市周内效应一直是金融投资者关注的焦点问题，许多学者已做了大量研究，但多数文献将收益与波动的周内效应分开来进行研究和检验，忽视了波动与收益的共生性，其结果缺乏严密性和说服力。针对这种情况，提出平行数据GARCH模型并给出了参数的极大似然估计方法，进而对上海股市收益和波动的周内效应进行检验，既反映收益与风险存在共生关系，又避免了分别判断收益和波动的周内效应所致的缺点。     

资本市场开放与公司内部控制质量——基于“沪港通”的证据

以中国“沪港通”交易制度的实施为政策背景,采用多时点双重差分模型,考察资本市场开放对标的公司内部控制质量的影响,研究发现,“沪港通”交易制度的实施显著提升了公司的内部控制质量,在控制其他因素并经过安慰剂检验、去除A+H股影响、改变周期范围等稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。机制检验表明,“沪港通”主要通过内部和外部两种机制对公司内部控制质量产生影响,其中,内部机制是对股价波动性风险控制,外部机制是审计师声誉风险与政府部门监管。     

Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs

Large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility are increasingly used in empirical macroeconomics. The key to making these highly parameterized VARs useful is the use of shrinkage priors. We develop a family of priors that captures the best features of two prominent classes of shrinkage priors: adaptive hierarchical priors and Minnesota priors. Like adaptive hierarchical priors, these new priors ensure that only ‘small’ coefficients are strongly shrunk to zero, while ‘large’ coefficients remain intact. At the same time, these new priors can also incorporate many useful features of the Minnesota priors such as cross-variable shrinkage and shrinking coefficients on higher lags more aggressively. We introduce a fast posterior sampler to estimate BVARs with this family of priors—for a BVAR with 25 variables and 4 lags, obtaining 10,000 posterior draws takes about 3 min on a standard desktop computer. In a forecasting exercise, we show that these new priors outperform both adaptive hierarchical priors and Minnesota priors.     

How does news sentiment affect the states of Japanese stock return volatility?

This paper examines the impact of public news sentiment on the volatility states of firm-level returns on the Japanese Stock market. We firstly adopt a novel Markov Regime Switching Long Memory GARCH (MRS-LMGARCH), which is employed to estimate the latent volatility states of intraday stock return. By using the RavenPack Dow Jones News Analytics database, we fit discrete choice models to investigate the impact of news sentiment on changes of volatility states of the constituent stocks in the TOPIX Core 30 Index. Our findings suggest that news occurrence and sentiment, especially those of macro-economic news, are a key factor that significantly drives the volatility state of Japanese stock returns. This provides essential information for traders of the Japanese stock market to optimize their trading strategies and risk management plans to combat volatility.     

What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending

We study the transmission of negative interest rates to bank lending around an unexpected policy rate cut into deep negative territory by the Swiss National Bank (−0.75%). We exploit a rich data set on transaction-level corporate loans matched with bank balance sheet data. We find that banks more affected by negative interest rates offer looser lending terms and lend more than other banks. This result is consistent with the risk-taking channel, where a lower policy rate spurs bank risk-taking to maintain profits. The result implies that, even in such deep negative territory, the reversal rate has not yet been hit.     

Carrot and stick: A role for benchmark-adjusted compensation in active fund management

Investors delegating their wealth to privately informed managers face not only an intrinsic asymmetric information problem but also a potential misalignment in risk preferences. In this setting, we show that by tying fees symmetrically to the appropriate benchmark investors can tilt a fund portfolio toward their optimal risk exposure and realize nearly all the value of managers’ information. They attain these benefits despite an inherent inefficiency in the choice of the benchmark, and at no extra cost of compensating managers for exposure to relative-performance risk. Under certain conditions, benchmark-adjusted performance fees are necessary to prevent passive alternatives from dominating active management. Our results shed light on a recent debate on the appropriate fee structure of active funds in contexts of high competition from passive funds.     

期货投机交易对现货市场的稳定效应及福利分析

设立股指期货市场 ,引入大量投机交易者是否会对证券现货市场产生负面影响 ,是导致目前市场管理者在设立股指期货市场时犹豫不决的重要原因。本文通过建立两阶段的理论模型以及国际股指期货币市场数据的实证表明 ,股指期货的风险分担和信息传递功能将导致我国股票现货市场波动的减缓和原有市场参与者福利的提高