Accounting for ARPU: New evidence from international panel data

Average revenue per user (ARPU) is commonly used by regulators and industry observers to compare the performance of mobile telephony markets. Under the new EU electronic communications regulatory framework, some national regulatory authorities (NRAs) have linked higher ARPU with ‘significant market power’. This paper empirically examines the determinants of ARPU in a systematic way, taking account of service quality, market environment, regulation and quantity of service. The robust results suggest that concentration may not be a reliable indicator of competition in mobile markets; there are economies of density in mobile markets; and higher GDP per capita increases ARPU.     

基于马尔可夫链的移动平均线分析新思维

应用马尔可夫链,建立新的移动平均线分析模式,使均线分析更加准确,有效地克服了传统均线分析所带来的伪信号,使得均线分析既能准确预测趋势,又能贴近市场近期行为,从而解决了均线通常只能用于分析中长期趋势的问题。     

技术交易规则预测能力与收益率动态过程——基于Bootstrap方法的实证研究

本文对我国股票市场技术交易规则预测能力进行了实证检验,发现移动平均规则所产生的买入区间收益率更大而波动率却更小,卖出区间的收益率为负而波动率却更大。运用自举(Bootstrap)方法检验发现,四种常用的收益率线性模型均不能解释买卖出区间收益率与波动率所表现出的非对称现象,尤其无法解释卖出区间收益率为负的现象。为此,本文通过人工神经网络方法,将条件异方差结构引入到现有的收益率非线性模型,发现该模型能更好地解释买卖出区间收益率与波动率模式,表明收益率动态过程中存在非线性特征。     

基于马尔可夫链理论的带警戒限的双侧均值控制图的平均链长

平均链长(ARL)是控制图的重要特性。利用马尔可夫链理论和矩阵的运算技巧能推导出带警戒限的双侧均值控制图的ARL计算公式。     

Crises, depressions, and expansions: Global analysis and secular trends

The goal of this paper is to present a new vision about the evolution of some economics-related agents during the last one and half centuries, which when considered as a whole allow a better comprehension on what is happening and shed some light about possible future trajectories. Four actors, or agents, were minutely examined: world population, its global output (GDP), gold price and the Dow Jones index. The joint action of these actors, despite of being only a part of the whole, might be seen as a good depiction of the great piece representing the world economic realm. The application of analytical tools as spectral analysis, logistic curves and the singularity approach on time series data about the historical unfolding of these actors allows the demonstration that the present crisis seems to be a mix of a self-correction mechanism that brought the global output back to its original learning natural growth pattern, and that it carries also signals of an imminent transition to a new world economic order. Moreover it is demonstrated that the next decade (2011-2020) will be probably one of worldwide economic expansion, corresponding to the second half of the expansion phase of the fifth K-wave. The present results combined with previous empirical work of this author suggest that we are witnessing a transition to a new global socioeconomic system whose evolutionary trajectory is leading the world system toward a true age of transition.     

LINEAR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE AUD/USD EXCHANGE RATE AND THE RESPECTIVE STOCK MARKET INDICES: A COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE PERSPECTIVE

In the recent era, computational intelligence techniques have found an increased popularity in addressing varied financial issues, including foreign exchange rate prediction. This article, through an intelligent system research framework, relates the Australian dollar (AUD)/US dollar (USD) exchange rate to the Australian and the US stock market indices. Information for exchange rate, All Ordinaries Index (AOI) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) for the trading days over the period January 1991–May 2011 is considered in this research. Utilizing a set of statistical and computational intelligence techniques, the research establishes that the AUD/USD exchange rate is best estimated by a linear forecast model compared with the nonlinear and ensemble‐based intelligent system models. This research further highlights that, among the competing linear models, the model with both the stock market indices and historical exchange rate values as the predictors is the best forecaster. Parameters of the linear model are deduced through a Monte Carlo stochastic approach. Relative importance of the predictors is also studied, and the influence of historical exchange rates, the immediate impact of AOI and the lagged effect of DJI are noted. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is smarter better? A comparison of adaptive, and simple moving average trading strategies

This study examines the comparative performance of an Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) on the Australian All Ordinaries, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Standard and Poor's 500 stock market indices. The theoretical advantage of the Adaptive Moving Average over fixed length Simple Moving Average (SMA) trading systems is its ability to automatically respond to changing market conditions dependant upon the level of volatility in the market. While the strategy is confirmed to have some market timing ability, the overall results show returns to the Adaptive Moving Average cannot compensate for the cost of trade therefore lending support for the use of a long run passive strategy.     

Projection properties of certain three level orthogonal arrays

Two orthogonal arrays based on 3 symbols are said to be isomorphic or combinatorially equivalent if one can be obtained from the other by a sequence of row permutations, column permutations and permutations of symbols in each column. Orthogonal arrays are used as screening designs to identify active main effects, after which the properties of the subdesign for estimating these effects and possibly their interactions become important. Such a subdesign is known as a ``projection design'. In this paper we have identified all the inequivalent projection designs of an OA(27,13,3,2), an OA(18,7,3,2) and an OA(36,13,3,2) into k=3,4 and 5 factors. It is shown that the generalized wordlength pattern criterion proposed by Ma and Fang [23] can distinguish between most, but not all, inequivalent classes. We propose an extension of the Es² criterion (which is commonly used for measuring efficiency of 2-level designs) to distinguish further between the non-isomorphic classes and to measure the efficiency of the designs in these classes. Some concepts on generalized resolution are also discussed.     

会计准则国际协调度测量研究

本文以中国会计准则和国际会计准则为研究对象,分别采用了判定分析法和平均距离法测量会计准则的国际协调度.经分析,作者认为,国外学者曾采用的判定分析法存在较大缺陷,本文创新地提出了平均距离法,平均距离可以替代类马氏距离和配比率作为测量准则协调度的指标,其效果较为理想.平均距离法下的测量结果表明,我国会计准则与国际会计准则仍存在适度差异,且计量准则的协调度略高于披露准则的协调度.