信用突变下商业银行信用风险预警模型及应用

在信用突变环境下,传统的基于模糊评价技术的信用风险预警模型存在较大的功能局限性。对此,文章运用偏好信息熵与物元可拓理论相融合的偏好熵权物元可拓方法,构建了基于偏好熵权物元可拓的商业银行信用风险预警模型,并进行了预警模型的实证分析。文章认为,基于偏好熵权物元可拓的信用风险预警模型的优势在于,通过偏好信息熵与物元可拓理论相融合的偏好熵权物元可拓方法,使得信用突变下信用风险的预警结果具有较好的平滑性与客观性,此外,该模型的综合关联度预警功能,提高了信用风险预警结果的精确度,很好地解决了信用突变下商业银行信用风险的预警问题。     

南通家纺产业的现状分析与发展对策探讨

纺织业是南通市传统支柱产业之一,家纺业是纺织行业的三大支柱之一。现代家纺业的发展直接关系到南通经济的发展。文章就南通市家纺产业面临的优势与问题进行分析,针对南通家纺业发展中存在的不足提出了相应的对策,重点从"政府、行业、企业"三个层次进行了探讨。文章的核心观点是"发展现代家纺产业,构建中国第一家纺城"。     

Run equilibria in the Green–Lin model of financial intermediation

We study the Green–Lin model of financial intermediation [E.J. Green, P. Lin, Implementing efficient allocations in a model of financial intermediation, J. Econ. Theory 109 (2003) 1–23] under a more general specification of the distribution of types across agents. We derive the efficient allocation in closed form. We show that, in some cases, the intermediary cannot uniquely implement the efficient allocation using a direct revelation mechanism. In these cases, the mechanism also admits an equilibrium in which some (but not all) agents “run” on the intermediary and withdraw their funds regardless of their true liquidity needs. In other words, self-fulfilling runs can arise in a generalized Green–Lin model and these runs are necessarily partial, with only some agents participating.     

The Asian Crisis,Gender, and the International Financial Architecture

This paper begins with an account of the Asian crisis, its creation and management by international financial institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank), and the gender impact of their stabilization and structural adjustment programs. Next we consider the new debate on reforming the IMF and the World Bank and restructuring the international financial architecture to prevent crises and manage them more effectively. Finally, we consider the gender ramifications of these changes. Since feminists have been absent from this debate, we examine issues essential to the formation of a gender-conscious international financial structure.     

Does CEO gender matter for bank risk?

This paper addresses the relation between CEO gender and bank risk. We exploit a unique dataset of 365 Polish cooperative banks, 42% of which are run by female CEOs. We find that banks headed by female CEOs are less risky: they report higher capital adequacy and equity to assets ratios. Credit risk in female-led banks is not different from male-led banks, and therefore higher capital adequacy does not stem from lower asset quality and is likely to be linked to higher risk aversion of female CEOs. Our evidence supports the view that women are more risk averse bank CEOs than men. Our findings suggest that gender quotas in bank boards can contribute to reduce risk-taking behavior.     

Clearinghouse loan certificates as a lender of last resort

Looking across multiple panics of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, this paper treats borrowing of clearinghouse loan certificates as borrowing from a lender of last resort. We evaluate individual bank use of clearinghouse loan certificates in New York City using bank balance sheet data. Bank capital ratios do not predict positive net borrowing. Lower pre-panic reserve ratios increased the probability of positive net borrowing of loan certificates. Bank borrowing behavior from a lender of last resort remained relatively constant across all three crises considered.     

食品安全规制能提高生产者福利吗？——基于不同规制强度的检验

食品安全规制涉及政府、生产者和消费者三方利益主体的博弈。已有文献主要关注政府规制对减少生产者违规概率、提升食品安全水平和消费者福利所产生的作用。本文从生产者福利视角考察企业参与食品安全规制是否存在“收益率溢价”效应,以此对中国食品安全规制的间接效果进行实证检验。首先采用倾向得分匹配模型考察食品安全规制对企业资产收益率的平均影响效应,然后采用广义倾向得分匹配模型和门槛模型进一步考察不同规制强度与企业资产收益率的非线性关系。研究表明,当前食品安全规制对参与规制企业产生了“收益率溢价”的间接效果,但随着规制强度的扩展,企业资产收益率呈现先上升后下降的“倒U型”变化,具有显著的双重门槛特征,当企业持有4项质量认证证书时为“最优规制强度”。最后结合当前中国实际,解释了上述结论产生的原因及政策含义。     

我国货币政策对银行贷款行为分析

分析了我国近几年在不同经济形势下,所实施的货币政策工具（贷款基准利率和存款准备金率）与商业银行贷款的关系,并用格兰杰因果检验和回归分析论证了贷款基准利率和存款准备金率尤其是贷款基准利率对银行贷款行为有重要的调控作用。     

国有银行与股份制银行资产组合配置的差异研究

商业银行国有产权与银行业绩表现的关系,近来成为一个热点话题。但是,很少有文章讨论银行国有产权与银行谨慎经营行为的关系。本文依据银行资产组合配置比率指标,研究了中国国有商业银行与股份制银行在谨慎行为方面的差异。实证结论表明:股份制银行比国有银行经营更为谨慎;国有银行由于管理与经营机制的改革正变得越来越谨慎。