Contained crisis and socialized risk: Unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan in the 1890s

In the 1880s, Japan experienced its first stock investment boom, which was highly leveraged by the banking sector. In 1890, its first financial crisis occurred and triggered a de-leveraging process. With a high lower bound of the conventional interest rate intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, the Bank of Japan decided to implement a massive securities purchases first time among major industrial economies and continued this unconventional policy until the early 1900s. We examine how the unconventional intervention for a decade affected the stock prices and the trade volumes, and show that the upward distortion in market pricing was considerable and that the equity-risk premium accordingly dropped, which meant socialization of the risk associated with the industrial investment.     

中国人民银行绩效审计的现状与思考

绩效审计已经成为现代政府审计发展的一种主流趋势。人民银行内审部门近年来积极探索转型,发挥咨询与增加组织价值的作用,探索开展绩效审计无疑是一个很好的突破口。本文分析了当前人民银行绩效审计现状与不足,并提出了人民银行内审部门如何推进绩效审计的思路。     

构建商业银行经济责任审计模式之探讨

经济责任审计是商业银行内部审计的重要形式。银行业的风险管理正处于提升的时期,商业银行必须强化和提升风险管理水平。风险管理是商业银行高级管理人员的重要职责,经济责任审计必须以风险为本,构建适应商业银行全面风险管理的经济责任审计模式。     

我国商业银行贷款集中度的测算及效应分析

近年来,商业银行信贷集中问题逐渐显现,正确认识信贷集中度及其影响对我国经济和金融业的稳定具有重要意义。本文用行业集中度、地区集中度、客户集中度三个指标来衡量我国商业银行的贷款集中度,以15家上市银行为研究样本进行了测算,在此基础上,将其分为三组同质同类银行,采用时间序列截面数据分别建立回归模型,考察了各组同质同类银行的贷款集中度对收益及风险的影响。     

外资银行进入对上海银行业经营影响的实证研究

本文研究了外资银行对于在上海经营的国内银行的影响。发现外资银行促进了国内银行资产利润率的提升和贷款损失准备金的提取,对上海银行业的人民币业务没有显著影响,而对外汇业务份额有较为显著的负向影响。国内银行应不断提高风险管理水平、业务的综合化和国际化水平,监管机构应努力促进中国金融市场的竞争性,促进商业银行经营效率的提升。上海应继续以优惠政策吸引外资银行的进入,促进国际金融中心建设。     

财政性存款问题研究

财政性存款制度是人民银行实施准备金管理的重要手段,以往对于银行机构漏缴、少缴财政性存款的问题,不是认定人民银行监管不力,就是认定银行机构自律不足,往往流于局部。本文尝试从财政性存款制度的政策起源、目标变迁为出发点,从人民银行、银行机构、财政部门三方的深层原因进行分析,进而提出了分三步改进、改革财政性存款制度的政策建议。     

银行危机救助策略的分析

银行危机的救助策略一直是理论界关注的焦点。本文通过构建一个两期模型,以银行危机是否会引发货币危机为评判标准,探讨政府在面对商业银行清偿能力危机时救助与不救助的抉择。经研究发现:当商业银行的不良资产率高,或商业银行在经济中起重要作用,抑或产出的价格弹性较小时,为了避免货币危机的发生,政府应该出手对商业银行提供救助。在相反的情况时,固定汇率制度下,政府为了维护其固定汇率的信誉应该出手对商业银行提供救助;浮动或管理浮动汇率制度下,考虑到商业银行的道德风险问题,政府应该不予以救助。     

Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: A Lack of Forward Guidance?

From July to December 2011, the three-month EURIBOR-OIS and EURIBOR-Repo spreads quadrupled and reached 100 basis points due to a stabilization of the EURIBOR and a decrease in the overnight index swap (OIS) and Repo. Using a specific monetary policy announcements and financial indicators database, we find that the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) unconventional measures did not systematically have a calming effect: Asset buyout announcements decreased market strains, whereas interest rates and liquidity provision announcements did not. Moreover, liquidity provision seems to have a stressing effect. Our findings are consistent with the theoretical underpinnings according to which forward guidance crucially determines the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies.     

基于数据挖掘的商业银行对公信贷资产质量审计研究

根据商业银行信贷资产质量审计问题的特点,本文研究构建了商业银行信贷资产质量审计属性选择、决策树和支持向量机等数据挖掘算法体系。以A银行对公信贷实际数据为基础,运用定性的经济涵义和量化的属性选择算法,对其进行属性选择分析,并结合商业银行数据库中数据特点,完成数据预处理工作。对经过预处理后的数据集,进行关联规则和分类模式挖掘分析,通过在A商业银行的审计实践应用,识别出了一定金额影响该行资产质量的贷款记录,取得切实的审计成效。     

Banks’ external financing costs and the bank lending channel: Results from a SVAR analysis

We analyze the dynamic response of banks’ financing costs to structural, macroeconomic shocks, which we identify by imposing combinations of zero and sign restrictions on impulse responses. For the estimation we combine US bank balance sheet data from the Call reports with macroeconomic aggregates over the period from 1984Q1 to 2007Q3. We find that banks’ financing costs mainly respond to monetary policy and aggregate demand shocks. Furthermore, funding costs of undercapitalized and illiquid banks increase more strongly after a contractionary monetary policy shock as compared to better capitalized and more liquid banks. These results provide support for the view that banks’ financing costs represent an important element of the bank lending channel.