Effects of Eurobonds: A stochastic sovereign debt sustainability analysis for Portugal,Ireland and Greece

This paper assesses the impact of Eurobonds on sovereign debt dynamics for selected European member states (Greece, Ireland and Portugal). For each member state, we produce sovereign debt fan charts of (i) a baseline scenario (no Eurobonds) and (ii) a Full-Fledged Eurobond introduction. The key building blocks of our methodology are (i) a debt framework (which embeds the traditional recursive debt equation), (ii) a vector autoregressive model to take into account and parametrise macroeconomic uncertainty and (iii) a fiscal reaction function. Conditional on the absence of moral hazard, we find Eurobonds to be a good instrument to absorb macroeconomic shocks and to diminish uncertainty over future debt forecasts; for Ireland and Portugal, we find debt to be 20 percentage points lower than under our baseline scenario, by 2020.     

Strategic Drift and Strategic Crisis Management of Organization

The research reports how the choice of the organization behavior--strategic drift can lead to strategic crisis as a form of manifestation of a deepening organizational crisis. The research questions whose solution is sought are connected with the relation of strategic drift--strategic crisis--strategic crisis management, in terms of whether the errors in the process of strategic management lead to organizational crises. The results of the historical analysis of the theoretical research and practice in this field show the interdependence among these processes and the reasons for strategic crisis in support of the concept of strategic crisis management and its implementation in business. The study outlines the evolution of the theory of strategic drift, as well as opinions of various scientists on the types of crises, which are perceived as a uniform classification and universal interpretation of the term ＂strategic crisis＂. The organization＇s ＂strategic drift＂ leads to serious organizational crisis which first form that strategic crisis. Practice shows that the management of market leaders often leads to complacency, choosing strategy stability. Soon, as a result of aggressive strategies or implemented innovations of their competitors, they lose their competitive position.     

Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data

This article analyses the anchoring of inflation expectations of professional forecasters and consumers in the euro area. We study anchoring, defined as the central bank's ability to manage expectations, by paying special attention to the impact of the ECB inflation target and ECB inflation projections on inflation expectations. Our analysis indicates that in the post-crisis period longer-term inflation expectations have become somewhat more sensitive to shorter-term ones and to actual HICP inflation. We also find that the ECB inflation projections have recently become more important for short- and medium-term expectations of professional forecasters and at the same time the role of the ECB inflation target for those expectations has diminished. Overall, our analysis suggests that in recent years inflation expectations in the euro area have shown some signs of de-anchoring.     

金融危机下经济民族主义的回归与思辨

在介绍经济民族主义起源与思想本质的基础上,阐述了金融危机下经济民族主义的三种主要手段:保护贸易、保护资金、保护就业。在对经济民族主义展开理性分析的同时,结合金融危机下国际经济民族主义现状提出了我国的应对建议。     

国际金融危机下广东经济现状与发展趋势评析

广东的经济总量多年领先全国，遭遇国际金融危机后的广东经济呈现出若干特点，包括第三产业、民营经济、区域协调、科技进步等因素都展示了广东对危机的抵抗力，其发展趋势的后劲也可以预期。先行一步的广东对我国区域经济发展理念和规律的认识具有启示作用。     

国际金融危机下完善中小企业税收优惠制度的法律思考

税收优惠是国家在税收方面给予纳税人和征税对象的各种优待的总称。在中国,99%的企业是中小企业。长期以来我国都有关于中小企业税收优惠的规定,从而促进了中小企业的快速发展。此次国际金融危机使我国中小企业的发展面临严峻挑战,保护中小企业迫切需要税收优惠政策的支持。完善中小企业税收优惠制度,对于帮助中小企业顺利度过难关,促进国民经济发展,维护社会稳定均有重大意义。本文通过借鉴当前金融危机形势下各国关于中小企业税收优惠制度的调整经验,对我国现存相关立法进行了全面剖析,并就完善该项制度提出几点建议。     

后金融危机时期高职生的就业对策

金融危机给高职生的就业带来了巨大压力。或可在分析我国后金融危机时期的就业形势的基础上，从高职生自身找制约高职生就业的主要因素，为此，高职院校应积极引导、帮助学生就业，而学生自身也应该调整心态，提高自身综合素质以积极应对。     

全球经济危机给中国高校国际化带来的新挑战及其思考

本文从国际合作与交流的角度出发,分析了当前全球经济危机给中国高校国际化带来的新机遇和新挑战,进而从课程建设、师资队伍建设、管理队伍建设三个方面,对如何应对新挑战、抓住新机遇进行了初步的探讨。     

财富的主体本质及其实现问题——从马克思的财富观看全球金融危机

马克思指出,财富的主体本质就是劳动,财富的主体本质实现就在于再生产人并实现为劳动。而人的"对象化了的劳动"——即物质财富成为主体(人)消费的对象,是人重新获得活动(劳动)的机体能力的基本前提。也就是说,财富只有作为人的消费的对象才成其为自身,财富的消费就是其本质的实现。而以资本积累为基础的扩大再生产,使财富不断远离自己的本质。财富的自我否定又直接导致货币贬值,进而出现危机。资本主义金融创新虽然借金融手段解决产品的过剩危机,让经济危机得以暂时缓解,但是同时积累了更多的资本结余问题,其突出表现就是把"产品过剩"直接表现为"资本过剩"。而当代金融危机的"过度消费",是建立在"借贷消费"基础上的,究其实质是非主体本质实现的财富生产。因此,危机是不能避免的,当前全球金融危机不过是资本主义生产中"资本过剩危机"的一个佐证而已,只有坚持马克思主义的分析才能看到危机的实质。     

Exchange Rate Pegs, Fiscal Policy and Credibility

In a fixed exchange rate regime, an exchange rate change can be a swift way to change the real exchange rate in the short run. Fiscal policy also affects relative prices, and fiscal policy response to various types of shocks can therefore be crucial for the credibility of an exchange rate peg. We develop a model within which fiscal policy plays a crucial role for ensuring the viability and thus credibility of an exchange rate peg. We use the insights of this model to take a closer look at Denmark, which has successfully pursued a fixed exchange rate policy since 1982.