A new necessary condition for implementation in iteratively undominated strategies

We uncover a new necessary condition for implementation in iteratively undominated strategies by mechanisms that satisfy the “best element property” where for each agent, there exists a strategy profile that gives him the highest payoff in the mechanism. This class includes finite and regular mechanisms. We conclude that either the quasilinearity-like assumptions of available sufficiency results cannot be completely dispensed with or some mechanisms that do not satisfy the best element property must be employed. We term the condition “restricted deception-proofness.” It requires that, in environments with identical preferences, the social choice function be immune to all deceptions, making it then stronger than incentive compatibility. In some environments the conditions for (exact or approximate) implementation by mechanisms satisfying the best element property are more restrictive than previously thought.     

Measuring lifetime poverty

This paper presents an axiomatic framework for measuring lifetime poverty over multiple periods. For an individual, we argue that lifetime poverty is influenced by both the “snapshot” poverty of each period and the poverty level of the “permanent” lifetime consumption; it is also influenced by how poverty spells are distributed over the lifetime. We axiomatically characterize classes of lifetime poverty indices and derive dominance conditions of poverty orderings for both individual and societal lifetime poverty measurements.     

Do interest groups affect US immigration policy?

While anecdotal evidence suggests that interest groups play a key role in shaping immigration policy, there is no systematic empirical analysis of this issue. In this paper, we construct an industry-level dataset for the United States, by combining information on the number of temporary work visas with data on lobbying activity associated with immigration. We find robust evidence that both pro- and anti-immigration interest groups play a statistically significant and economically relevant role in shaping migration policy across sectors. Barriers to migration are lower in sectors in which business interest groups incur larger lobbying expenditures and higher in sectors where labor unions are more important.     

A state-dependent model of intermediate goods pricing

Recent analyses of transaction-level data sets have generated new stylized facts on price setting and greatly influenced the empirical open- and closed-economy macroeconomics literatures. This work has uncovered marked heterogeneity in price stickiness, demonstrated that even non-zero price changes do not fully “pass through” exchange rate shocks, and offered evidence of synchronization in the timing of price changes. Further, intrafirm prices have been shown to differ from arm's length prices in each of these characteristics. This paper develops a state-dependent model of price setting by strategic intermediate goods producers that anticipate and respond to their competitors' actions. The model, which allows for both arm's length and intrafirm transactions, is able to generate all of these empirical pricing patterns.     

一种基于支持向量机的带钢表面缺陷识别方法

鉴于支持向量机（SVM）在小样本、高维模式分类中具有的优良分类性能,可以基于多分类支持向量机来检测带铜表面的缺陷。本文构造了一类有向无环图支持向量机（DAGSVM）,利用交叉验证进行了参数和模型的选取,对冷轧带钢中几种现场易出现的缺陷进行分类,并与BP神经网络进行比较分析。实验结果表明,这类基于SVM的算法识别效率较高,较好地解决了小样本学习问题,避免了BP神经网络出现的过学习、收敛速度慢、泛化能力弱等缺点,可有效地应用于带铜表面缺陷检测。     

浅析如何改进我国商业银行信用风险管理方法

本文以商业银行信用风险管理为切入点,对我国信用风险管理的现状和问题进行探讨。文章介绍了我国商业银行目前使用的两种信用风险管理方法——客户信用评级法和贷款风险分类法,分析其存在的问题,并对完善我国商业银行信用风险管理提出了对策建议。     

Once were farmers: Occupation, social mobility, and mortality during industrialization in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec 1840–1971

We study men's adult mortality and longevity by socio-occupational status during industrialization in Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, Quebec. Data were extracted from the BALSAC database (Université du Québec à Chicoutimi), which comprehensively traces the demographic history of the region since the beginning of the French Canadian settlement in 1840 up to the early 1970s. Using five occupational classes and controlling for year, age at marriage, urban/rural residence, and literacy, we found no evidence for the emergence of a socioeconomic gradient in mortality. At least until the early 1970s, mortality in the region is the lowest for farmers and appears to be driven by occupational risk rather than fundamental social causes.     

Globalization, industrialization and urbanization in Pre-World War II Southeast Asia

This article uses new data to analyze the impact on Southeast Asian urbanization of globalization and industrialization in the world economy's core countries between the 1870s and World War II. Dramatic falls in transport costs and free trade, enforced, if necessary, by colonial rule, combined to open vast frontier areas throughout Southeast Asia to global commerce and create a handful of large urban centres. These cities, through linking Southeast Asian primary commodity exporters to world markets, grew predominantly as part of the global economy. Our econometric analysis shows that measures of globalization — in particular industrial production in the world core and international transport costs — are much better predictors of the size of Southeast Asia's main cities than domestic factors such as total population, GDP per capita, land area or government expenditure.     

Forecasting U.S. car sales and car registrations in Japan: Rationality, accuracy and herding

We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is, forecasters seem to intentionally scatter their forecasts around a consensus forecast. We further show that cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecasts with regard to anti-herding transmits onto cross-sectional heterogeneity of forecast accuracy. Specifically, we document that forecasters who herd provide more accurate forecasts than their colleagues who anti-herd.