Cooperative fiscal policy at the zero lower bound

This paper investigates the use of fiscal policy in response to a large negative aggregate demand shock which may push the global economy into a liquidity trap. Fiscal policy may be an effective tool to respond to a liquidity trap, but its international spillover effects may operate quite differently from its domestic effects. We derive the optimal cooperative fiscal response to a global liquidity trap in a two country world economy. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal fiscal spending response for a partner country to a negative aggregate demand shock in a source country may be negative. If fiscal policy can be chosen under policy commitment, the optimal response involves current fiscal expansion combined with future fiscal contraction, after the liquidity trap has ended.     

Measuring living standards from the lowest: Height of the male Hangryu deceased in colonial Korea

The living standards in Korea during the colonial period (1910–1945) have been debated for a long time. We explored this problem using the height of the Hangryu deceased, a dead person who did not have any acquaintances to claim the body. We found that the height of male Hangryu deceased, ages 25 to 30, increased by 2.2 cm during the colonial period. This result is consistent with recent quantitative studies measuring income levels or demographic information. However, questions such as when this growth in height started and what initiated this pattern need further investigation.     

The multiple effects of carbon values on optimal rotation

Non-consumptive benefits which increase with crop age, like keeping carbon sequestered, lengthen optimal rotation compared with rotation for timber alone. High proposed carbon prices may extend rotation indefinitely. Carbon storage in wood products reduces this tendency. Biomass as an energy source displacing fossil fuels favours rotations near those of maximum biomass productivity. Use of sawn timber to displace structural materials with high embodied carbon favours somewhat longer rotations. Effects of rotation on soil carbon, and fossil carbon volatilised in harvesting operations, are further complications. Including all carbon effects results in optimal rotations somewhat longer than those based only on timber value, but shorter than those based on timber plus forest carbon. To include all factors intuitively is not possible: balanced appraisal needs economic calculations.     

Optimal rotation with declining discount rate

In recent years it has been argued, from many perspectives, that the further into the future a value flow occurs, the lower is the appropriate discount rate for it. National governments are now beginning to authorise such declining discount rates. This viewpoint can be, and has been, formalised in various ways, and has been applied to evaluating forestry investments of given durations. When the optimal duration of investment is itself the issue, new problems arise. Lower discount rates make subsequent rotations longer than earlier ones, and for a given length more valuable than they would otherwise be. This affects the optimal length of earlier rotations, which in turn may affect the discount rate profile applicable to later ones. In the absence of analytical solutions for the optimal sequence of rotations, numerical protocols are needed. The results arising are mostly in accord with expectations. If the change of discount rate is due to expected changes of circumstance that are actually realised, then the optimal sequence of rotations will remain as initially determined. If, however, it is due merely to the particular time perspective of the present generation, rotations will be revised by future generations. This will lead to a sequence of rotations similar to that deemed optimal at the current short-term discount rate. The most important reductions in profitability caused by choosing the “wrong” discounting protocol arise from the “wrong” rate, rather than by using declining rates as such.     

农用地自然质量分等与耕地地力评级结果的对比衔接

研究目的:探寻农用地自然质量分等和耕地地力评级结果间的差异与联系.实现其成果的衔接研究方法:模糊综合指数评判法、聚类分析法、层次分析法、GIS叠加分析法、转移矩阵分析、拟合分析。研究结果:(1)农用地自然质量分等和耕地地力评价结果之间等、级变化差异程度不同,同一评价单元农用地自然质量等较多高于耕地地力评价级;(2)平原区等与级结果的差异程度远大于丘陵区;(3)建立了不同指标区农用地自然质量指数与耕地地力评价指数之间的衔接模型,丘陵区衔接模型的线性相关程度明显高于平原区。研究结论:利用衔接模型,可以在农用地自然质量分等和耕地地力评级结果间进行转换,实现了两者在同一指标区的相互衔接检验和不同指标区之间的统一可比性。     

青海省土地督察区域级别评定

研究目的:评定土地督察级别,为差别化的土地督察办法的制定提供依据。研究方法:采用多因素综合评价法和特尔菲层次分析法,确定评价指标体系及权重,进行土地督察级别的量化评估。研究结果:在土地督察类型区的控制下,青海省县级行政区被划分为5个督察强度不同的土地督察级别。研究结论:土地督察级别的评定,分清了主次,突出了重点,创新了工作机制,提高了督察效率和效果。     

试论土地督察类型区的划分

为探索解决西北地区幅员辽阔、经济发展不平衡、土地利用区域差异较大而土地督察机构人员不多的矛盾,以青海省为例,确定土地督察类型区的划分原则、方法、指标选取和数据处理方式.按照地域分异规律,采用系统聚类法和定性修正法将青海省划分为耕地保护、城市发展、矿业发展、生态保护等四大土地督察监管类型区,分析指明各类型区的功能定位、土地利用和违法特点,为评定土地督察级别,有针对性地制定差别化的分区督察办法,创新土地督察方式方法,提高土地督察的效率和效果,有效实现土地督察目标提供依据.     

基于朴素贝叶斯模型的电子证照用证智能推荐

数字政务是数字政府建设中的重要组成部分,研究电子证照智能服务有助于数字政务改革。结合朴素贝叶斯模型与某省政务数据构建用证预测模型,并对模型的有效性进行检验。结果表明：法人类型高频办件前10种组合占全部组合的49.46%,远高于个人类型政务服务事件;全省范围内个人用证、法人用证推荐准确率分别可达到53.22%、68.51%,按地市构建模型能够有效提升准确率,部分区域准确率最高可达96.24%;缩小判定政务服务事件先后关系时间窗口,推荐准确率明显降低。研究结果表明了研究方法的有效性,有关方法和结论对提升政府效能具有支撑参考作用。     

历史文化街区业态特征及其影响因素研究——以长沙太平街为例

历史文化街区业态的特征是市场规律的体现。本研究以长沙太平街历史文化街区实地调研数据为主,网络平台相关数据为辅,对商铺业态分类,从多个视角透视街区业态特征,运用无序多分类逻辑回归,探讨业态类型的影响因素。研究发现：（1）历史文化街区商铺业态类型可优化为餐饮、购物、住宿、游览娱乐和其他5个大类15个中类;（2）业态水平空间分布表现出商铺面积规模的插花分布现象和业态两两组合的多样化特点,业态垂直空间分布由低层向高层表现出商铺数量、业态种类递减,商铺面积规模递增,业态多样性弱化、集中性强化的态势;（3）业态空间集聚表现出街巷入口、尽头的垂直分布集聚和商铺面积规模的“集聚-分异”现象;（4）商铺面积规模、街巷类型和集体记忆表征水平变量显著影响业态类型,饮品、小吃、服装、特产、住宿类型业态布局与街巷类型变量存在显著相关关系,特产、饰品、住宿类型业态布局与商铺面积规模变量存在显著相关关系,服装、娱乐类型业态布局与集体记忆表征水平变量存在显著相关关系。     

风险投资融合高新技术的转让体系研究

本文提出了利用我国高新技术产业开发区、科技企业孵化器的集聚环境,建设直接服务于促进风险投资与高新技术双方融合的技术转让体系的思路。即将各园区的信息、技术产权交易连通,先区域后全国。针对风险投资几乎可进入所有的技术领域的现实,对供应性产品与服务、应用性产品与服务、复杂系统产品与服务、科学前沿产品与服务等不同的领域,提出了不同的风险投资刺激政策和技术转让服务重点。