Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets

Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices.     

航运金融市场的需求特征及其对上海国际航运中心建设的启示

现代航运业的特点决定了航运业与金融业之间存在密切的联系,而航运金融市场作为航运市场与金融市场相结合的产物也具有独特的特征与发展条件。从航运金融市场的需求特征可以看出,航运金融市场发展的关键在于为金融机构提供一个良好的制度环境,降低金融机构从事航运金融业务的成本,便利金融机构在航运金融产品设计以及风险控制方面满足航运企业的实际需求,这也正是上海推动航运金融市场发展的政策目标。     

城镇家庭消费金融效应的地区差异研究

本文使用各省市自治区城镇家庭借贷支出的分类面板数据,结合我国经济发展处于转轨期的特性,考察消费升级、社会保障不完善及地区发展不平衡等因素对消费的影响。研究发现各变量在对消费的影响性质和程度上均存在地区差异,社会保障、消费升级和储蓄在全国范围内均显著正相关,房贷支出和教育在中西部地区的促进作用显著,而保险在东部地区作用突出,家庭投资则均不显著。政府要扩大消费内需并改变消费金融发展的不平衡,就应把握消费升级和社会保障制度的推进时机和力度,增加中西部地区社会保障投入和教育投入,持续提高居民收入,适度放宽中西部地区的家庭房贷限制。     

Web users’ behavioural patterns of tourism information search: From online to offline

This paper presents a conceptual framework of Web users’ engagement in tourism information search for a comprehensive understanding of their integrated online and offline search behaviour. The information search experiences are characterised as a process constituting some common elements: prior knowledge and searching experiences, online searching strategies, processing and recording information, barriers to online searching, reasons for ending an online search, summarising information, exchanging information and searching for more information through other sources. Such behaviour goes beyond the scope of information searching and captures the other activities, including information processing, utilising and disseminating. The grounded theory research method is employed as an inductive investigative process in which the authors construct the framework by systematically collecting and analysing data. The aim of this research method is to build a theory. The data sets consist of both semi-structured in-depth interviews with subjects and their field observations based on online searching. A theoretical model incorporating 10 propositions is proposed for future testing.     

互联网金融监管的政治经济学分析

近年来,我国互联网金融蓬勃发展。面对各种互联网金融业态争相涌现,政府采取了较为积极的态度,但在2014年“两会”后则加强了对互联网金融发展的监管,以防范金融风险,维护金融安全。本文从政治经济学的角度来分析互联网金融的监管问题,指出如果放任互联网巨头开展互联网金融,可能会导致互联网超额利润和金融超额利润的叠加,从而引起新的社会不公。因此,政府需要加强对互联网金融的监管,鼓励有序竞争,促进互联网金融的健康发展。     

物流金融:出现动因、发展模式与风险防范

物流金融是金融机构为降低交易成本和风险,利用物流企业提供的物流信息和物流监管,依据物流供应链而进行的金融活动.物流金融的发展模式可分为物流结算金融模式、物流仓单金融模式、物流授信金融模式和综合运作模式等.作为一种新型业务,物流金融带来了与以往不同的风险,认识并控制这些风险是物流金融开展好坏的关键.本文从物流金融的概念人手,分析了物流金融的出现动因和主要特点,以及国内外物流金融的实践情况,并对不同的物流金融发展模式潜在的风险及应对之策进行了分析.     

Impact of formalisation of property rights in informal settlements: Evidence from Dar es Salaam city

This paper aims to study the responsiveness of the informal property market and management systems towards the introduction of land registration for informal settlements in Tanzania. City governments are increasingly recognising the need to strengthen legal rights for the urban poor as a means to bring them more effectively into the urban economy and ensure better provision of water, sanitation and other primary services. The research focuses on Tanzania and in particular two case studies within Dar es Salaam. The findings of the work suggest that the introduction of residential licenses whilst potentially assisting in creating legal certainty has not resulted in the financial sector accepting them as full security against loans. Accessing credit by the poor however has not yet been fully realised resulting in some further hurdles for the financial sector to overcome. Finally, and of some significance is the registration of property in the informal settlements has provided the opportunity of formal property transactions within these settlements.     

战略性新兴产业培育与发展的金融支持

金融是现代经济的核心,是引导经济资源配置的重要动力机制。"十二五"期间,培育和发展战略性新兴产业已成为我国经济社会发展的重要战略目标,而金融体系在培育和发展战略性新兴产业过程中具有核心的支持作用。文章提出了战略性新兴产业演进的金融支持过程及体系,在此基础上,以上海为例,设计了战略性新兴产业培育与发展的金融支持政策。     

农村金融发展:现状、问题及对策——以吉林省辽源市为例

本文以辽源市农村金融体系建设现状为基础,通过对农村金融发展新特点的研究,深入挖掘目前农村金融体系建设的新问题,进而借鉴国际的先进经验,探讨中国在后危机背景下,如何发展农村金融,进一步提出促进农村金融发展的相关建议。     

振兴东北老工业基地财税支持政策的探讨

本文分析了老工业基地存在的问题,提出了振兴东北老工业基地的财税支持政策。