Media attention and betting markets

This paper investigates whether biased media attention affects perceptions about future events. We use data on World Cup tournaments in alpine skiing for the period of 1992–2014 and exploit close races as a source of randomness for ranking positions. Since the allocation of media attention is skewed towards the winner and athletes on the podium, we can estimate the causal effect of media attention. Our results document that ranking schemes generate sharp discontinuities in media attention even in close competitions. However, both regression discontinuity and instrumental variables estimates reveal that biased media attention neither affects prices nor quantities in the betting market. We conduct a series of robustness tests to explore the sensitivity of our results.     

FREQUENT NEWS AND PURE SIGNALS: THE CASE OF A PUBLICLY TRADED FOOTBALL CLUB

We use stock market data for Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co. KGaA – one of the leading German football clubs – for an application of the news model. Owing to the specific characteristics of the news‐generating process, the case of a publicly traded sport club is a very appropriate candidate for testing this model. By applying a traditional as well as a reversed news model, we elaborate whether new information can explain subsequent changes in the stock price of Borussia Dortmund. We find that sport as well as corporate governance‐related variables are important drivers of the stock price.     

Randomized Response, Statistical Disclosure Control and Misclassificatio: a Review

This paper discusses analysis of categorical data which have been misclassified and where misclassification probabilities are known. Fields where this kind of misclassification occurs are randomized response, statistical disclosure control, and classification with known sensitivity and specificity. Estimates of true frequencies are given, and adjustments to the odds ratio are discussed. Moment estimates and maximum Likelihood estimates are compared and it is proved that they are the same in the interior of the parameter space. Since moment estimators are regularly outside the parameter space, special attention is paid to the possibility of boundary solutions. An example is given.     

Efficiency of online football betting markets

This paper evaluates the efficiency of online betting markets for European (association) football leagues. The existing literature shows mixed empirical evidence regarding the degree to which betting markets are efficient. We propose a forecast-based approach for formally testing the efficiency of online betting markets. By considering the odds proposed by 41 bookmakers on 11 European major leagues over the last 11 years, we find evidence of differing degrees of efficiency among markets. We show that, if the best odds are selected across bookmakers, eight markets are efficient while three show inefficiencies that imply profit opportunities for bettors. In particular, our approach allows the estimation of the odds thresholds that could be used to set profitable betting strategies both ex post and ex ante.     

Investigating efficiency in betting markets: Evidence from the Greek 6/49 Lotto

In this paper we investigate the existence of profit opportunities in the Greek market for the 6/49 Lotto. Under the assumption of random number selection we find evidence suggesting that the market is efficient. Because number selection is found to deviate from randomness, we further investigate the existence of profit opportunities due to number unpopularity. The evidence suggests that although unpopular numbers exist, they are not sufficiently unpopular so as to generate positive expected payoffs.     

The link between entrepreneurship and informal investment: An international comparison

This study explores the link between entrepreneurship and informal investment. Using Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data, we examine what types of individuals invest in new businesses. The results reveal that individuals who engage in entrepreneurial activity are, on average, three times more likely to invest in new businesses than those who do not. We also find that individuals with entrepreneurial networks are more likely to invest in new businesses. Moreover, we present estimation results for the odds ratio of business ownership/management and informal investment, as well as of entrepreneurial networks and informal investment, in each country. We find that the link between entrepreneurship and informal investment differs across countries. Specifically, while the proportion of individuals who start businesses or engage in informal investment in Japan is lower than in other countries, the relationship between entrepreneurial propensity and informal investment in Japan is the greatest among 30 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, suggesting the presence of small-world phenomena in entrepreneurship in Japan.     

Bayesian approach to yield curve modelling with application to the simulation of EMU environments: generating scenarios by modelling yield curve movements

A Bayesian approach to yield curve modelling is developed where information on the current and recent yield curves is used to generate yield curve scenarios, and a model is proposed that generates return distribution for bonds. The predictive power of the model is developed by comparing out-of-sample lagged realized yields with forecast yields, and it is demonstrated that the returns generated by this scenario approach and those generated using the standard time series approach are consistent. The model is applied to pre-EMU and post-EMU environments. This paper assesses the implications of different assumptions on the early post-EMU environment for international bond portfolio selection, as well as the immediate short-term effect of EMU on risk and return.     

On determining probability forecasts from betting odds

We show that the probabilities determined from betting odds using Shin’s model are more accurate forecasts than those determined using basic normalization or regression models. We also provide empirical evidence that some bookmakers are significantly different sources of probabilities in terms of forecasting accuracy, and that betting exchange odds are not always the best source, especially in smaller markets. The advantage of using Shin probabilities and the differences between bookmakers decrease with an increasing market size.     

A Bradley-Terry type model for forecasting tennis match results

The paper introduces a model for forecasting match results for the top tier of men’s professional tennis, the ATP tour. Employing a Bradley-Terry type model, and utilising the data available on players’ past results and the surface of the contest, we predict match winners for the coming week’s matches, having updated the model parameters to take the previous week’s results into account. We compare the model to two logit models: one using official rankings and another using the official ranking points of the two competing players. Our model provides superior forecasts according to each of five criteria measuring the predictive performance, two of which relate to betting returns.