入境旅游对地区收入的影响

本文利用面板数据模型对不同地区的入境旅游消费支出与地区收入进行实证分析,结果发现,不同地区入境旅游的消费支出并没有显著差异,入境旅游的消费支出每提高1个百分点,国内主要城市的旅游收入平均只能提高0.09个百分点。不同区域的自发收入水平差距是最重要的影响因素,其中,旅游发展的自发收入以拉萨最高,其次是深圳和南京等城市;最低的城市为兰州,其次是西宁和成都等城市。本文认为提高旅游发展投资力度、规范旅游发展制度、进一步开发多元化旅游市场、扩大文化交流和加大海外旅游营销力度是提高我国入境旅游业的发展能力,缩小不同区域间的旅游发展差距的有利举措。     

非寿险公司偿付能力额度和现金管理的研究

本文运用2001年～2006年20家保险公司的面板数据,比较分析了基于保险监管与基于比率法得到的最低偿付能力额度的差别,认为目前我国保险公司最低偿付能力额度制定过低,并且发现我国基于净赔款支出的方法在偿付能力额度制定中不能发挥作用;实证研究了保险公司现金持有量的影响因素,认为中资保险公司现金持有量主要受资产负债率、投资收益率、非投资资产率和流动资产率四个因素的影响,而外(合)资保险公司的现金持有量则主要受赔付率和非投资资产率的影响,差异较大。     

Financial stress,sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions

We analyze how the impact of a change in the sovereign debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth depends on the level of debt, the stress level on the financial market and the membership in a monetary union. A dynamic growth model is put forward demonstrating that debt affects macroeconomic activity in a non-linear manner due to amplifications from the financial sector. Employing dynamic country-specific and dynamic panel threshold regression methods, we study the non-linear relation between the growth rate and the debt-to-GDP ratio using quarterly data for sixteen industrialized countries for the period 1981Q1-2013Q2. We find that the debt-to-GDP ratio has impaired economic growth primarily during times of high financial stress and only for countries of the European Monetary Union and not for the stand-alone countries in our sample. A high debt-to-GDP ratio by itself does not seem to necessarily negatively affect growth if financial markets are calm.     

Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

FISCAL POLICY AND ASSET PRICES

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices using a panel vector auto‐regressive (PVAR) approach and quarterly data for ten industrialized countries. We find that positive fiscal shocks lead to a temporary fall in stock prices and a gradual and persistent decrease in housing prices. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding‐out effects and the deterioration of credit conditions; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) a more persistent response of asset prices for countries with a lower degree of openness; (iv) a larger impact of fiscal policy on asset prices for small countries; (v) a close link between the responsiveness of asset prices to fiscal policy and the government’s size; (vi) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization; and (vii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances.     

财政分权对地方公共投资的长期和短期影响效应研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

本文以1985—2008年我国25个省域面板数据为对象,采用面板单位根及协整检验等计量经济学方法,得出以下结论:我国各省域及省以下财政分权与地方公共投资之间存在长期且相互影响的内在作用机制,两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系。本文通过面板误差修正模型(PVECM)进一步得出结论:财政分权与地方公共投资的长期均衡具有显著的短期修正效应。     

论企业相关者利益最大化的财务管理目标

进入20世纪80年代以后,随着经济全球化的发展以及企业间竞争的日趋激烈,人们逐渐意识到公司应该为所有利益相关者的利益服务,而不应该仅仅是股东的利益服务,利益相关者可以根据其资产的多少和它们所承担的风险来获得企业对其利益的保护,这样利益相关者参与公司治理、分享公司利益也就理所应当。     

Alternate signs of life: The growth of biotechnology industries in Shanghai and Bangalore

This paper explores the emergence of biotechnology centers in Shanghai and Bangalore by comparing their development to best practices in the literature for biotechnology cluster growth and development. Interviews with over fifty biotech companies and related institutions in China and India indicate that these regions are developing alternate models of low cost manufacturing and services that build on the current local base of knowledge and expertise. The ability to convert research into successful commercial activity was identified in both regions. The strong research capacity, private sector funding, and entrepreneurial environment deemed critical best practices were limited. New growth theory is used to explain these alternate approaches to technological and social change.     

The role of gender and its potential channels to affect self-employment in Taiwan

This research investigates the gender differences in the self-employment sector by employing a dynamic panel model with county- and city-level data from 1998 to 2016 in Taiwan. Our study is distinct from most others in this issue in that we explore not only the inter-gender difference, but also the intra-gender differences in self-employment. Following this framework, we first find that women are on average less likely to self-employ than men, and further find that older men, married men, men living in lower income regions and women living in higher income regions are more likely to become self-employed compared to their respective reference groups. We thus argue that gender influences self-employment not only directly but also through interactions with other demographic variables. Separate evaluation of different groups based on demographics should therefore result in better targeting of policies.     

基于利益相关者角度对中国旅游发展问题研究

随着旅游市场的迅猛发展,不同利益主体间因为诉求不同而产生的问题也愈发明显,冲突的表现形式纷繁复杂。基于利益相关者的角度进行解析,其本质是地方政府、当地社区居民、旅游者和旅游企业四者因为利益诉求不同而产生的矛盾。通过探寻不同主体的诉求及产生诉求原因,将对未来解决矛盾提供有益的帮助。